bFast
Posts: 44 Joined: Mar. 2008

The data.
I ran each test below until I had 10 fixation events. The numbers represent: 1  Percent of random kills. 2  average number of purged mutations per fixed mutation. 3  average number of generations until the mutation fixed.
I intended to run through an array size of 1000, but it began to take long enough to get rediculous. To get data today, I gave up.
The comma delimited data below can be cut and pasted into a text file with the file extension .csv. They can then be opened with excel, and viewed more elegantly.
Drift, a baseline. 100,915.1,935.9
Array size: 200 Random %,# Purged,Generations til fixed 0,53,367.6 20,39.4,418.4 40,84.1,438.9 60,117.4,510.9 80,306.4,988.2
Array size: 300 Random %,# Purged,Generations til fixed 0,61.7,338.6 20,85.2,427.5 40,146.9,504.6 60,174.6,596.5 80,179.2,824.2
Array size: 400 Random %,# Purged,Generations til fixed 0,96.7,456.4 20,236.6,486.8 40,99.5,698.7 60,167.9,840.6 80,654.6,919.1
Array size: 500 Random %,# Purged,Generations til fixed 0,166.9,427.7 20,84,572.8 40,183.1,665.9 60,321.2,732.7 80,329.7,1012.5
Array size: 600 Random %,# Purged,Generations til fixed 0,82.1,550 20,178.9,745.3 40,208.9,690.4 60,390.1,666.4 80,410.8,977
Array size: 700 Random %,# Purged,Generations til fixed 0,97.1,587.2 20,148.6,671 40,188.7,855.2 60,180.8,815.1 80,354.8,856.3
Array size: 800 Random %,# Purged,Generations til fixed 0,231.2,670.7 20,230.8,620.5 40,247.9,761.7 60,358.5,786.7 80,1100.8,1403.9
Array size: 900 Random %,# Purged,Generations til fixed 0,188.6,827.7 20,185.5,720.2 40,632,1054.7
To summarize what I see in these results. As the array size increases, the numbers clearly move towards fixation. As the amount of randomness increases there is a clear move towards fixation. There are point in this run which are slower than fixation: 800 * 80%, 900 * 40% etc.
The variance in the results here are still quite dissappointing. It is clear that I need to run more than 10 cycles to get a good average number. However, this is a system hog. In a week I will have better numbers to answer the ultimate question  at what point is it reasonable to conclude that the lucky mutation has little more chance than random. Even in this chart, however, we see that without a "random" component, by 900 allele pairs, we have about 1 chance in 200 of our lucky mutation fixing.
