bFast
Posts: 44 Joined: Mar. 2008
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The data.
I ran each test below until I had 10 fixation events. The numbers represent: 1 - Percent of random kills. 2 - average number of purged mutations per fixed mutation. 3 - average number of generations until the mutation fixed.
I intended to run through an array size of 1000, but it began to take long enough to get rediculous. To get data today, I gave up.
The comma delimited data below can be cut and pasted into a text file with the file extension .csv. They can then be opened with excel, and viewed more elegantly.
Drift, a baseline. 100,915.1,935.9
Array size: 200 Random %,# Purged,Generations til fixed 0,53,367.6 20,39.4,418.4 40,84.1,438.9 60,117.4,510.9 80,306.4,988.2
Array size: 300 Random %,# Purged,Generations til fixed 0,61.7,338.6 20,85.2,427.5 40,146.9,504.6 60,174.6,596.5 80,179.2,824.2
Array size: 400 Random %,# Purged,Generations til fixed 0,96.7,456.4 20,236.6,486.8 40,99.5,698.7 60,167.9,840.6 80,654.6,919.1
Array size: 500 Random %,# Purged,Generations til fixed 0,166.9,427.7 20,84,572.8 40,183.1,665.9 60,321.2,732.7 80,329.7,1012.5
Array size: 600 Random %,# Purged,Generations til fixed 0,82.1,550 20,178.9,745.3 40,208.9,690.4 60,390.1,666.4 80,410.8,977
Array size: 700 Random %,# Purged,Generations til fixed 0,97.1,587.2 20,148.6,671 40,188.7,855.2 60,180.8,815.1 80,354.8,856.3
Array size: 800 Random %,# Purged,Generations til fixed 0,231.2,670.7 20,230.8,620.5 40,247.9,761.7 60,358.5,786.7 80,1100.8,1403.9
Array size: 900 Random %,# Purged,Generations til fixed 0,188.6,827.7 20,185.5,720.2 40,632,1054.7
To summarize what I see in these results. As the array size increases, the numbers clearly move towards fixation. As the amount of randomness increases there is a clear move towards fixation. There are point in this run which are slower than fixation: 800 * 80%, 900 * 40% etc.
The variance in the results here are still quite dissappointing. It is clear that I need to run more than 10 cycles to get a good average number. However, this is a system hog. In a week I will have better numbers to answer the ultimate question -- at what point is it reasonable to conclude that the lucky mutation has little more chance than random. Even in this chart, however, we see that without a "random" component, by 900 allele pairs, we have about 1 chance in 200 of our lucky mutation fixing.
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