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| Date: 2006/01/04 13:56:51, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
BWE: I'm not sure we can get very far along these lines. I view an economy in the traditional microeconomic view, as everyone trying to make rational decisions as to how best to allocate their resources, so as to maximize their self-interest. I see this process as being entirely amoral. I have a dollar. I can spend it on food, or I can spend it on gasoline (let's say). I can't spend it on both. Well, what's more important to me, getting somewhere or eating? I make my allocation decision. At least as I see it, this is a moral decision only in the loosest possible sense. I won't deny that people attempt to apply economic pressures for moral reasons, but this doesn't make economics moral anymore than using a baseball bat to mug someone makes the bat a mugger. An economy is an emergent property of many individual allocation decisions. That property is irrespective of the rationale the individual actors have for their decisions, except insofar as they are presumed to be acting selfishly. |
| Date: 2006/01/04 14:20:09, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||
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haceaton: I'm not sure what you are trying to say. My best guess is that you are attempting to score points with sarcasm, and if that's so, you win all the points. If you have any particular problem, I hope you can articulate it clearly. However, I can say that the ideas you ascribe to me are clearly in error: I said no such thing. I can try to clear that up a little:
No, I didn't say this. I was talking about the effects of LOTS of tax policies, all at once, on the national economy. I certainly agree that if I had been talking about the effects on any particular individual of a change in income tax rates, the effect on that individual would be pretty obvious. Now, would changing the tax rate on that individual have any measurable effect on national economic productivity? How would you isolate it?
No, not quite. Fortunately, you quoted the general principle - that money tends in general to go to to those who earn it. But of course, there will be plenty of exceptions. In the case of Paris Hilton, part of her fortune was inherited, but part has resulted from her own activities - whether or not YOU consider her TV shows valuable. And then there are lottery winners, etc. But what you're doing is like pointing to helium balloons as "proof" that the observation that dropped items fall is foolish. Good work, man! Incidentally, let's say we decided to eliminate inheritance, and have the government confiscate everything everyone died still owning. Would THAT have any macroeconomic impact? Or would you need to know what the government decided to do with the money?
You're on a roll! I was careful not to speak about economic policy, only about economic activity. In general, ALL economic policies have moral overtones if not direct moral intentions. They are adopted to Make Things Better. Economic policies, in general, are attempts to manipulate the forces of supply and demand (and thus distort market mechanisms) to achieve some moral purpose. |
| Date: 2006/01/04 14:39:15, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
I can see, at least a little bit, how it might be necessary for people raised into biblical belief and who later get deep enough into what science is and how it works, to feel the need to accept both at once. The former must be true because it being false is unthinkable, the latter must be true because it being false is irrational. Yet by any remotely plausible interpretation, they can't both be right. Fortunately for such people, they ARE people of faith. And this means the two don't conflict because they have faith that they don't conflict. They SAY it's true, and that makes it true. So really, the hard part is already taken care of; all that's left is the details. And of course, any details can be reconciled using this same technique. A little creative interpretation of scripture, science, or both, and POOF we have coherence. |
| Date: 2006/01/04 16:10:17, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
Sir Toejam: There aren't so much economic theories, as economic schools of thought. You might really want to visit this Wikipedia page. The battle between the Austrian school (Mises, etc.) and the Keynesians is surprisingly bitter. Wikipedia also introduces you to the monetarists, the classicists, the supply siders, and other views. You might get some insight into this battle at this site (with which I must say I agree entirely, and the Austrians detest it). |
| Date: 2006/01/04 16:13:14, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
| More fantastical evolutionary critters but perhaps not quite so fantastical as Larry or Blast. |
| Date: 2006/01/05 04:57:33, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
Some of these questions are as hazy as "how high is up?" or "Is it colder in the North or in the Winter?" And this is a Bad Thing when we're assigning numbers, because the numbers can then be manipulated (finding averages, etc.) without regard to the fact that they don't necessarily mean anything. So I'm going to approach this a bit differently. Questions about the supernatural are simply not accessible to science, rendering any numerical response nonsensical. For questions 4, 5, 8 and 9, it's simply not possible to assign a number that says anything comprehensible. They could all be given a "1" (no scientific support) or a "7" (overwhelming support) and either response could be equally justified! So let's try to clarify: the supernatural lies outside the competence of science. Science is simply *not capable* of saying *anything* about the supernatural. Anything AT ALL. And this means ANY number assigned to these questions is fundamentally meaningless and dishonest. Now, on to the questions themselves: 1) Living organisms arose from non-living matter by a purely natural mechanism that is well understood. I'd also give this a value of 2. Some possible (i.e. plausible according to the known rules of chemistry) mechanisms have been proposed, and some possible very early precursor protocell structures have been created. But it's important to note that how the first life DID happen may simply not be knowable. I wouldn't be surprised if scientists were to discover several different mechanisms that would have been sufficient, but we'll never know which (if any) happened. 2) All organisms alive today share common ancestry at some time in the remote past I think the evidence here merits a full 7. Yes, it's possible that multiple lineages arose early on, but all seem to have joined the main trunk of the tree of life at some point. 3) All organisms alive today reached their modern form as a result of mechanisms that are well understood by science I'd give this one a 6. The mechanisms currently identified are well understood, but I think it's an error to believe that ALL mechanisms have been identified. I'd state as a matter of principle that we can *never* confidently claim we've nailed them all. 4) N/A 5) N/A. We can't even define what supernatural means. However, we can be pretty confident that the mechanisms currently understood are sufficient, and no supernatural component (whatever that might mean) is required. Whether one was *involved* is not knowable to science. 6) Human beings are related to other species. 7. No question here. 7) The physical form and behavior of human beings have been shaped by natural selection. 7. After all, "form and behavior" essentially describe ALL organisms. 8) N/A 9) Supernatural forces are not required to account for human consciousness and culture, including moral and religious impulses. N/A. Here, we're talking about the process of elimination - the idea being that if we could fully account for consciousness and culture without ringing in anything "supernatural", we could squeeze out any supernatural requirement. Again, this is like question 5). Until we can have some notion what supernatural means in practice, how can we know if it's required? 10) Natural selection is responsible for the rise of human consciousness and culture, including moral and religious impulses. This question is not possible to answer meaningfully with a number. First, we need to define "moral and religious impulses." Until we know what these things ARE, we can't know what causes them. And I personally think reasonable people could argue forever over such a definition. No matter HOW we define these things, it's going to be possible to argue that they don't even exist. But let's say people DO have "religious impulses" (I admit I don't feel any. What would one seem like?). Perhaps it would be most meaningful to say that whatever people do or think is an emergent property of how people are physically constructed. From this view, since natural selection is largely responsible for the evolution of all organisms, everything about those organisms is at least partially the result of natural selection. But the danger with question 10) is that it seems to have a nodding acquaintence with "social Darwinism" and this is a dangerous error. So here's a metaphor. Think of natural selection as having provided us with an easel, a canvas, and an extensive palette of colored paints. We each use these tools to paint a picture. Are the materials "responsible" for the picture? In a sense, yes of course. But in another sense, the picture itself is more than some mixture of paints on canvas - it has an emergent MEANING entirely independent of the materials that compose it. That meaning doesn't lie in the paint, it lies in the mind of whoever interprets the pattern. And in this sense, culture and moral and religious impulses are *projections*, interpretations imposed on perceived patterns not inherent in the patterns, but only in the interpretations. Natural selection only enables these things; it's responsibility extends no further. |
| Date: 2006/01/05 05:50:56, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||||||
haceaton:
Only insofar as you did - that the effects on a single individual can be sorted out pretty easily.
No question about it, but again that's NOT a national effect in terms of the national economy. That's an effect on basically the richest 1/2 of 1% of the population. For them, it's significant.
Yes, but this is a somewhat different orientation. You're talking here about the politics of envy. Personally, if I'm making $X a year and I'm comfortable, I don't become any less comfortable to discover that someone else is making $100X a year. Nor do I feel poorer to learn that tax cuts have raised them to $120X a year. But I understand that some people pay attention to these ratios, and DO feel poorer.
I agree there are many ways to measure a boom. I was using the DOW as a yardstick, but of course this is limited in lots of ways. Perhaps median household income is better. Perhaps unemployment rate is better. I'm aware that much of that boom didn't really translate into economic activity.
This is only partially correct. I was expressing derision that someone who admitted no formal training or knowledge, was expressing an opinion I felt ANY formal training or knowledge would refute. To compare with evolution, there's a difference in my mind between somone saying "I have never studied any biology but it looks like chimps resemble gorillas" and someone saying "I have never studied any biology but I know that evolution doesn't happen." Supply and demand don't go away because people dislike the moral implications.
I'm not sure if I follow this correctly. Hopefully, we've agreed that there is a difference between predicting what effect a policy will have on a specific cohort of economic actors, and predicting what effect the policy will have on the economy at large. Policy formulators tend to focus on constituencies; their purposes are political. Even so, actual and intended effects don't always coincide; sometimes they are wildly different. One school of though argues quite persuasively that the Great Depression was made MUCH deeper and longer because in response to the first symptoms, Congress took the worst possible fiscal tack.
Yes, I think that sounds about right. In economic terms, I think we could say that *someone* earned the money by making a genuine contribution valued highly by the market. Fortunes can certainly take generations of heirs not doing much productively before dissipating.
Not absurd, but not necessarily correct either. Most of these moral opinions are statements of preference, and everyone has preferences. But preferences are not economics. Here's an example: we have a factory chuffing pollution into the air. We want it stopped. Now, should we levy a fine for polluting of $X, or should we sell the polluter a pollution license for $X? Most people find the former morally satisfying and the latter morally appalling, yet economically (from the perspective of the polluter), there's no difference. $X has been added to the cost of doing business. I'm always amused at the anger toward WalMart. They are moral victims of their own success - they have provided what their customers want so excessively successfully that they are now being vilified for doing so. People aren't willing to give up their low prices, but they demand better wages, more benefits, more competition, better community dynamics etc. IN ADDITION. |
| Date: 2006/01/05 06:07:08, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||
BWE:
I still don't understand. I gave an example of a purchasing decision. I didn't see any morality involved.
Again, I don't understand. I think the community should understand by now that a WalMart is going to have pervasive economic consequences. They even know what those consequences are going to be. So they can make an informed decision as to whether the benefits (which are very real) outweigh or are outweighed by the consequences (which are also very real). Even the decision whether to spend your money on an apple or a quart of motor oil is a value judgment.
As I wrote earlier, it's entirely possible to attempt to impose economic pressures for moral reasons.
Here's where my idea of economics comes in. Yes, I agree. Schools should have lots of money. Most government programs are worthwhile and should have lots of money. Charities are valuable and should have lots of money. Taxes should be low because *I* should have lots of money. But hard as I search through your post, I simply can't find what you have decided you will *do without* so that schools can have more money. Maybe you're saying you're willing to pay (let's say) double your current taxes? OK, that's a community decision.
Maybe this terminology is too vague? Economics describes tradeoffs. Individual economic actors (you and me, for example) allocate our resources according to our best current understanding of our self-interest, however much enlightenment we choose to extend to that understanding. Now, we have everyone making their individual decisions, and what emerges is a large-scale pattern of resource allocation. Resources here are more than money, they're time and skill. Economics tries to study these patterns, to learn how they arise and how they can be modified. I think you're right that economics is a tool of analysis. The actors are making moral decisions perhaps, but the economy is not moral. The ballplayers care dearly who wins the game, but the game itself (the set of rules they play by) does not care. |
| Date: 2006/01/05 06:13:33, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
BWE:
But WalMart has broken no rules; as I said, they have set low prices as their goal. They are dedicated to doing everything legally possible to keep prices minimized. If the community rules allow them to pass costs outside their system, then of course they will do so. To go back to my ballplayer analogy, WalMart tries everything possible within the rules to win their game. Now, you seem to be saying that the rules should be changed, because they permit organizations like WalMart to cut their costs by shifting costs where you'd prefer they not be permitted to do so. But following the rules is not immoral, and WalMart follows the rules (and are punished when they do not). So what you are saying is that the RULES are immoral. And the community can certainly change the rules if they desire to do so. |
| Date: 2006/01/05 07:53:08, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
Dean Morrison: I think we are not communicating here. Let's start at a very general level. People, by application of time and skill, produce goods and services others want. People exchange these things. That's an economy. Economic activity results in the distribution of goods and services. There is no explicit or implicit requirement that those who produce the most market value, be the same people as those who end up with the most money. Indeed, entire political economies have been set up explicity to *prevent* this sort of thing, for one reason or another. One thing economics CAN tell us is how per capita production relates to per capita wealth over the long term. The general trend has been, the closer these two correlate, the larger the per capita wealth across the economy as a whole. Now, is increasing per capita wealth ("growing the economy") a good thing? Economics can't answer that, but most individuals find it desirable. Economics doesn't even pass moral judgment over theft. That's simply another economic transaction, with economic implications. I won't say that most rich people "deserve" to be rich, but I WILL say that we can tell whether someone is doing something someone else is willing to pay for. I should also point out that investment is a value in the sense that it enables others to create value. Investment is rewarded with interest and dividends and (sometimes) with capital appreciation. I'm not saying anything about altruism. I personally think Bush is rewarding his supporters, as any politician seeks to do. Economics can describe what sorts of redistributive properties monopolies lead to. In general, monopolies have two effects on wealth: they polarize it, and they reduce it. Economics doesn't pass judgment on whether this is a "bad thing." Economics only describes what happens and how it happens. Back to the baseball game. You seem entirely hung up on who wins, and you pay no attention to how the game works. You're like the creationists reacting to the Dover decision - who cares what the law is or how the court system works or what our procedures and principles are? THE WRONG SIDE WON. What else matters? |
| Date: 2006/01/05 08:13:30, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||
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BWE: I admit I simply don't know what you're trying to say most of the time.
I don't blame you. So what? If we as a community want to change this, economics tells us we'd be well advised to change the financial incentives. This happens because when the incentive changes, the perceived self-interest of the polluter will change. Economics holds that the polluter, as an economic actor, will act in his perceived self-interest.
I'm not sure I understand this. Are you referring to the tax breaks communities have sometimes extended to WalMart to attract a store to their district? Increasingly, results are coming in showing that communities tend to suffer a net economic loss by offering large tax breaks to major employers. So this practice may become less common in the future. Economics, by the way, is a tool that allows people to generate and analyze these results.
What do you mean by "fair"? I've seen claims that "fair" means everyone pays the same amount, claims that "fair" means everyone pays the same *rate*, claims that "fair" means that the rich pay all the taxes and the poor get subsidies, etc. Which is your version of fair?
I think you've made a poor selection here - there is no requirement that anyone purchase either one. If I place a price on my product that nobody is obligated to pay, and some people choose to pay it, then for those people BY DEFINITION I have placed a fair price on my product. Now, you might be talking about taxes and fees that are effectively regressive, in the sense that poorer people spend a higher percentage of their income on such taxes and fees than richer people spend. So I'm going to guess that when you spoke earlier about "fair", you meant either neutral or progressive effective tax rates. Now, so what? Yes, changing the shape of the tax structure has economic consequences. We can figure them out, so we can say who wins and who loses, and within some range how MUCH they win or lose, as a result. Whether any of them *ought* to win or lose, economics can't tell us.
Yes, I agree. To the degree that you can predict the consequences of your actions, you can more accurately direct your efforts so as to achieve your perceived self-interest.
Huh? You just built a case for the exact opposite - that the layman DOES need to understand these things if his decisions are to result in what he wants. You just said the layman is "obligated" (I don't like the term. He isn't obligated to inform and educate himself) to learn enough to know that if he does X, the likely result is Y. And that's what economic analysis can tell him. And I also agree with an implication you carefully don't make explicit: Most people DO NOT know the consequences of their actions, they only have a seat-of-the-pants, often dead wrong, "feel" for what's "right". Then, when they don't get what they expect, they blame others for being "immoral". Economics is a tool, like math. By themselves, these tools are not moral. |
| Date: 2006/01/05 08:22:12, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Dean Morrison:
I can only laugh. Such tradeoffs are pretty much the ENTIRE content of economics 101. Typically, in that class you will graph cost against benefit. At one extreme (all spore, no stalk) the benefits are 0. At the opposite extreme (all stalk, no spore) the benefits are also zero. The graph between them is a parabola. The "ideal" tradeoff between stalk and spore is where reproduction is maximized. This occurs (it's easy to see on the graph) where the slope is zero - the very top of the parabola. Piece of cake, just take the first derivative of the equation of the curve, and that's where your maximum lies. Of course, the amoebae didn't apply differential calculus to find this mix. Most likely, they used trial and error. Those who most nearly approximated the maximum did the best job of reproducing. |
| Date: 2006/01/05 09:16:23, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||||||||
Dean Morrison:
I don't know why this even matters. Laissez faire economics has knowable consequences. Regulation has knowable consequences. "Pure" socialism has knowable consequences, both (in general terms) for the economy as a whole, and for the individual actors within it. Now, do I *prefer* a system of economic management that, like a rising tide, expands and lifts all boats? Yes, personally, I do prefer that, but within limits and with certain constraints.
I don't see where this statement might be coming from. Economics as a tool can be used to analyze the economic consequences of various management goals and techniques. But I feel like I'm trying to explain how addition works, and you're trying to decide which numbers I must like best.
"Inform" is perhaps a slippery term here. Such a study may be helpful in telling us what results different policy alternatives are more likely to produce. They are useless for telling us which results are "better".
Some markets exist that are freer than others that exist. Is this an "underlying assumption"? I'd call that a straightforward observation. Is market freedom "desirable"? Economics can't tell us our desires. It might help us REACH our desires, but that's something entirely separate.
Again, you are complete blinkered by moralistical concerns. WalMart is successfully reaching WalMart's own goals, within the constrants within which WalMart must operate. Are their goals "good" ones? WalMart thinks so; that's why they're doing it. Indeed, I would argue that monopoly is the inevitable (and rapid) result of a completely unregulated free market. Which is just wonderful for the monopolists, but pretty grim for everyone else. However, I seriously doubt that WalMart can achieve a true monopoly. They don't even control the largest segment of the retail pie in US history - that crown still belongs to A&P (remember them? Whatever became of A&P?)
I don't understand the context you intend. "Corrective" meaning what - to change WalMart's practices to more closely conform to YOUR preferences? Yes, incentive systems can be modified that will likely accomplish this - *at someone else's expense*. As a general rule, every change that helps anyone, hurts someone else. You seem desperately eager to pin "bad guy" and "good guy" labels on economic actors. I'm more concerned with "doing X usually results in Y, and here's how."
I don't see your point, but this claim is simply not correct. There is a tradeoff here as well - the corporations have lots of money, but votes win campaigns. Money can influence votes to some extent, but that influence is nowhere near as comprehensive as you prefer to think. Historically, the party less favorable toward corporations wins about half the time.
In my observation (personal opinion only here), any market requires some regulation. What causes markets to grow, and middle classes to emerge, and national wealth to accumulate, is *competition*, not necessarily "freedom." So my personaly opinion is that a nation is best off (in terms of both per capita wealth and equitable distribution of that wealth) if freedom is restricted so as to guarantee competition. Back to economics as a tool, it says nothing about whether monopolies are good or bad. Economics makes no moral judgment. It's a way to analyze economic consequences of policies.
|
| Date: 2006/01/05 09:47:59, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||||
BWE:
Then we have no disagreement. I'm talking explicitly about economics as a field of study. I've already agreed that people use their values to make ALL the judgments in their lives.
And exactly HERE is why ignorance of economics is hurting you. Presumably, these polluters are producing some product. They are selling it successfully, or they wouldn't be in business. Pollution reduces their costs. This reduction in costs means more money for something else. Let's say they use their savings to lower their prices. You purchase (in all ignorance) the least expensive, highest quality products you can. Theirs is one of them, BECAUSE they pollute. By purchasing their product, you are "lending your vote" in favor of their practices. Equally important, by NOT buying the more expensive product from the non-polluter, you are punishing him for absorbing the cost of being clean.
Economics can't tell you what to feel. But you might just for grins consider the tradeoffs from a different perspective. Let's look at the set of WalMart employees. They aren't being paid enough to live on by WalMart, and so you are effectively subsidizing WalMart by providing these people (through your taxes) with food stamps and the like. Yes? Now, lets shuffle the cost structure around a little bit. Let's reduce your taxes by the amount of the food stamps and other subsidies. You now have more money to spend. Let's raise WalMart's prices enough so that WalMart is now paying their employees enough so they don't NEED food stamps. Are you happy now? Yes, morally you are overjoyed. And what has happened? Effectively, nothing at all. YOUR money is still being spent (but now through high prices rather than taxes) making WalMart's employees better off. You can spend it through taxes, or you can spend it through higher prices, or you can spend it through a higher risk of theft (burglary) by desperately poor people, etc. But now matter how you cut it, the same economic value as ever is coming out of your pocket. The ONLY thing you have gained is smug moral gratitude. You smote the wicked, you did!
Of course, I didn't tell you MY definition of fair, I asked you to specify yours. I notice you haven't done so. You have CALLED your preferences "fair" but carefully not said what that means.
There isn't, to my knowledge, much if any correlation between smoking and "ignorance". I'm surrounded by brilliant engineers all day long. Most of them smoke. ALL of them know the consequences of smoking. So what are you talking about?
And if you put it in capital letters, do you think it would be even more true? In fact, it's only partially true. You need to ask, if this money were not taken from the super wealthy in income tax, where would it go? Into the stock market? But then it would suffer capital gains tax. Into consumption? But then it would suffer sales and excise taxes. Into building a factory? But then the employees would be paying the taxes. So the money WILL end up in the public coffers one way or another. Please follow this link. Your eyes will be opened. Sure, since I'm not rich, I'd just LOVE to see the rich reduced to my meager level, while at the same time I'd be paying absolutely nothing in taxes. If such a policy had no economic consequences other than to shower me with money, I'd be overjoyed. Unfortunately such an economic policy will have countless drastic consequences, both direct and indirect, both immediate and downstream. Maybe if I pretended that doing so would be MORAL, those consequences would go away? Well, we can dream... |
| Date: 2006/01/05 10:44:58, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||||||||||
Dean,
I wasn't trying to do so in the sense of preferring monetarism or supply side economics or the like. But I suppose you're right that I place a moral value on the greatest good for the greatest number, and that I assign the value "good" to personal freedom, comfort, and potential. And I haven't taken a moral position with respect to WalMart in any way.
In the case of the rising tide, the water represents per capita wealth, as measured by the market. If we want to use money to measure it (why not?), then the water is money.
Im sorry if YOU got no insight out of it. Most people do. We have seen that economic policies can lead to the expansion or contraction of the *entire economy*, irrespective of the distribution of wealth within that economy. I encourage you to keep looking.
Apparently it doesn't. You used math, so I accommodated you. In fact, if you go over what I've written, you'll see that if anything I said just the opposite of what you're now trying to put into my mouth. Economies are unweildy, messy, complex adaptive feedback systems highly resistant to any organized analytical method, where we can try to read statistical tealeaves and intuit patterns and trends. I admit I was quite astonished that you'd see this (which heceaton interpreted as "economics can't tell us anything useful at all") as mathematical certainty. My writing skills must be terrible, if one reader sees me arguing certainty whereas another sees me as arguing purest guesswork.
I can't parse this. Efficiency can be defined fairly rigorously, while desireability is something totally unrelated. So I don't know what you're trying to say.
I'm not aware that there even ARE any higher principles. Economics tells us (at least somewhat) how economies will react to different strategies of management.
I remain baffled by this. Where have I done so? Imagine if I kept saying that you should write in English and not keep writing in French. You might wonder after a while...
I wonder how many Americans remember the Great Atlantic And Pacific Tea Company. My grandmother would, if she were still alive...
Not sure I see this either. I wrote that monopolies have two economic consequences: they reduce the size of the entire pie, and they polarize the wealth within economies. From an economic standpoint, this is a neutral observation. No, it's not my personal preference. But I'm trying to describe how economics works, and you're trying to pin me down to my moral preferences. As I wrote earlier, I'm trying to explain addition, and you can't get past trying to decide which numbers I like best.
I'm just not up for explaining American politics to you. |
| Date: 2006/01/05 14:48:44, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||
|
BWE: I'm having trouble following your train of thought.
Don't be silly. The playing field is a combination of the law of supply and demand, and the restrictions of community regulation. These are the same for everyone - these ARE the playing field. Everyone's playing field is the same in this case. Or are you arguing that your community has exempted WalMart from certain laws?
And once again (this bears repeating, but never seems to get across), NOTHING is free. Everything that has a benefit, has a cost. Bargains, yes, these are possible. If you wish to do any "economics think" at all, the very first question you must ask is, if anyone enjoys any benefit from any action, WHO PAYS? Someone ALWAYS pays. There is no free lunch. Ever. Health benefits cost money. Someone pays that money. If WalMart pays that money, where does WalMart GET the money to pay with? They get it by raising their prices. You can think of this price rise as a tax on the community to pay for those health benefits. Nothing is free.
In any community, there are going to be as many different notions of "fair" as there are members of the community. Economics describes what all of these members do as a group. Even supposing that everyone bases their buying choices NOT on what they want or need, but on whom they think they are rewarding or punishing by making these purchases, people STILL act in their perceived self-interest. I might buy a widget because I think it's neat; you might buy a widget because you want to support the widget-maker's employers or punish WalMart (who doesn't sell widgets). So what? What matters is whether widgets show enough profit to stay in production.
Again, you pretend your coin only has one side. In fact, paying interest is how your visa company stays in business. For them, your being a revolving customer is *highly* efficient. Remember, once again, for every benefit there is a cost, and for every cost there is a beneficiary.
Sigh. You're still trying to decide who are the good guys and who are the bad guys. Over the long term, it's highly likely that paying taxes to support a good public education system has economic impacts. Whether these impacts are "helpful" is a value judgment. Economics might help you predict or evaluate the magnitude of the impacts. Economics can't tell you if that impact is good or bad. Everything is a tradeoff in economics. Everything. Money spent on X can't be spent on Y. policies that help one group (defined as having them end up with more money) hurt another group (those whose money was transferred). The only exception to this concerns growing the economy as a whole. You say you're interested in sustaining rather than growing the economy. In that case, it's simple. EVERY dollar anyone gets, represents a dollar loss for someone else. So the only way to get a NET gain is by arbitraging in a sense: I sell you something you want more than the money I ask, while I want the money more than the item. We both think we came out ahead. But economically, we only made at best an incremental change in the market value of the item. Everything balances out. I admit I would not be comfortable walking around in a world where everone and every organization had to be categorized as good or evil. In my world, the WalMart people have done an excellent job of taking advantage of their environment. They are like the English Sparrows of the retail world: smart, savvy, aggressive, highly successful competitors. But this doesn't blind me to the fact that WalMart's gain is, and MUST be, someone else's loss. Every benefit has a cost, and someone must pay it. If nobody paid any costs, nobody could benefit. I remember talking on the net with someone who had spent a year somewhere in Europe, and returned enthusiastic about the "free" medical care. I attempted to point out that nothing is free, but sometimes the costs are (deliberately) hidden and indirect. She flat refused to listen. She KNEW health care was free, dammit, she got sick and they treated her and didn't charge her anything. If that's not free, what is? I tried to point out that one of the costs of that "free" medical care was a 20% unemployment rate. Nope, no communication. What does unemployment have to do with not being charged for an aspirin? So I never reached the point where I could show her that this "safety net" for the poor in fact only shoved costs around. To pay for free medical care, the government was taxing their people at rates upwards of 90%. To get employees, companies were forced to pay wages MUCH too high to permit them to employ the unskilled. So the unskilled STAYED unskilled, and unemployed. Which meant taxes had to stay high to pay for their "free" aspirin. And of course, all poor are not equal. Poor of the "wrong" ethnic background were the last to be hired and first to be let go. Which leads to yet another cost of "free" medical care, if you've been following events in France lately. It seems that *somebody* noticed who was paying the brunt of these costs. The French were trying for a free lunch, by sweeping the cost onto their Muslim population. Eventually, it stopped working so well. So once again, we all want lots of benefits. Not asking who pays for them, and how (in what form) that payment is made, doesn't make the costs go away. |
| Date: 2006/01/05 15:47:16, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
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JimB: You understand, I'm not an economist. Economics is something I'm interested in, and I took quite a few courses in it in graduate school, and participated in a few economic studies afterwards. But it's not my profession. Still, if you've had the fortitude to trudge through this thread, I can only appreciate the effort you've made. |
| Date: 2006/01/06 04:45:03, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||||||||
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haceaton: If you disagree with the gist of what I'm saying, I'm glad to discuss and even concede that you're probably right. We surely both recognize that nearly any statement about economics is going to have exceptions or be subject to debate.
So long as we agree that "unhealthy" is a value judgment. Highly skewed distribution IS a consequence of certain policies. There are indications that this is a positive-feedback tendency, feeding on itself. If you suggest a few methods by which this skew can be reduced, we might consider the side-effects of those methods. Right now, the top 10% of income-receivers are paying HALF of the US national income taxes. So maybe income taxation isn't a good method?
A puzzle to me too. My speculation is that these businesses are hoping to better quantify and predict their operating costs. Fines can be capricious, and criminal penalties can't be ruled out.
Yes, this is certain to be perceived as an unacceptably high price by the CEO. It might be perceived as a bargain by the board of directors. That might be an interesting battle...
I disagree. Perhaps my style is smug (though this seems an eye of the beholder thing), but we've already gone over this. I didn't question "appropriateness" in the sense I think you mean. I questioned the presumed impacts. Let's say someone writes "Fires are bad things. Let's throw more wood on them to satisfy them so they'll go away." If you come along and point out that the recommended action will have unintended consequences, you are NOT commenting one way or another on whether fires are bad. So let's say that someone jumps up and claims you are defending fires. It sounds that way to him. Is he correct?
So long as we agree that the "people that matter" are the intended voting constituency. The reason those below the median income pay essentially none of the income taxes is because they have half the votes, but make so little money that revenues aren't damaged much by eliminating their income taxes.
Then this is a failure of presentation on my part. I observe, from multiple historical experiences, that certain policies have nearly always had "rising tide" effects, while other policies have not, or had the opposite. So I "know" this in the sense that I "know" that if you invest your money, you'll end up with more of it. You can find countless exceptions to this rule of thumb, of course, but on the whole it's true for reasons fairly well understood. We're really talking about two parameters here: Total wealth creation within a political economy, and wealth distribution within that economy. Economists think they understand, in general terms, what factors influence both of these things, and in what directions. There is some debate as to how independent these parameters are.
From what I have read about WalMart (quite a bit), you are simply wrong. WalMart makes lots of money. What do they DO with that money? Do they pay their upper management exorbitant salaries? No. Do they pay out high dividends to their stockholders? No. Do they pay decent wages or bonuses to their rank and file? No. So where DOES the money go? By observation, WalMart converts their cost savings (however achieved) into lower prices. By comparative industrial standards, they aren't doing this to get personally rich. Their profit margins aren't exceptional. So you have fallen one step short here. You notice that WalMart does everything possible to reduce their costs, some of it legally shaky, some of it hard on their employees or on other retailers in the community. You're right; they do this. What I pointed out was, they translate these things into lower prices. It is WalMart's corporate policy. If it did not succeed, people wouldn't shop there so exclusively as to skew community economies so badly. So I repeat: their goal is to minimize their prices. NOT to pocket high profits, which they do not make.
Here's a start. I think I will rescind my claim of "fairly rigorous", since this is misleading enough to be incorrect. I had intended to state that the notions of efficiency and desirability are qualitatively different. Desirability is purely subjective; efficiency is not (at least, not intended to be).
We are probably going to have to disagree here. "Fair" is a pure value judgment. Most parents with more than one child can understand this. Is it "fair" to treat them equally, when their desires or needs differ? Is it "fair" to accommodate their differences, if one needs more than another? Maybe the parent is "fair" if the children perceive no favoritism? If I follow you, you are proposing a tax based on wealth instead of income. Hopefully in practice this won't devolve into a "whack the investor" proposal. If you and I have the same income, but you spend every penny you make, while I scrimp and save so as to have as much savings as possible, then you pay no tax while I pay some fixed percent. To counter this problem, you propose that an extra tax be levied on consumption, which would affect you more than me. Yes, it would extract a bunch of money from those who inherit a fortune, win the lottery, or whatever. Hey, I'd be willing to give it a try and see what unanticipated consequences we'd need to adjust for later. However, I hope we agree that Congress is psychologically incapable of leaving any tax structure alone. In their view, the tax system has two primary purposes: to fund government activities and programs, and to modify public behaviors through social engineering. Which of these two purposes is more important, they probably couldn't say. But within minutes, the "flat tax" would be encrusted with many thousands of exceptions, VAT rates would be highly variable, no two alike. Politicians from poor districts would trade exceptions for certain classes of wealth (perhaps no tax on houses), in exchange for exceptions to certain classes of poverty (maybe no VAT on food). I predict it would also be politically difficult to impose a wealth tax. A few years ago, some politician (from a poorer district) proposed that inheritance be taxed to draconian levels, perhaps 90% or more. He figured that the poor (who had nothing to inherit) would support this proposal, so he was astonished to find that the poor opposed it overwhelmingly. Turned out, after some investigation, that the poor realized that the only chance they had at any real money was some unexpected inheritance. To be remembered in the will of some wealthy person. They knew the chances of this were infinitesimal, but they were NOT willing to give up what they saw as their only chance altogether. The picture is of income as a hose to the bucket of wealth. The hose leaks, because the government taps into it every which way they can dream up. But dammit, whatever reaches that bucket is MINE, safe from government confiscation. Why, even if I won the lottery (the poor person is thinking), I can't take the lump sum and invest it wisely; the government will extract a pound of flesh out of it every year until it's gone. So what I'm saying is, I don't believe most people would regard a wealth tax as "fair". People want, they dream of, beating the system. A system you can't beat might be "fair" but it won't be popular. |
| Date: 2006/01/06 04:53:34, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||
| Author: Flint | ||||
celtic_elk:
I agree. They'll minimize the cost of doing business, whatever the path of least cost may be.
Not entirely. Corporate "good will" is quantified and on the books, however speculative the assigned amount. But there have been enough cases of bad corporate citizenship to calibrate "good will" a little bit better than SWAG. I've often wondered if all the money Philip Morris has spent on anti-smoking commercials has paid off in increased cigarette sales. |
| Date: 2006/01/06 05:31:01, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
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Ghost: I'd be interested in your answers to these questions, whether or not you're a scientist. Your sniping at Dean is of course very clever, but not very informative. |
| Date: 2006/01/06 10:44:28, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||||||||||
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BWE: I'm sure we aren't communicating, but I'll keep trying anyway.
No, I'm assuming a world where consequences can be understood, predicted to some extent, and managed.
But if your goal is to alter the tradeoffs more to your liking, surely it's in your interest to know what they are, and to be able to measure and categorize them so you know if your efforts are paying off.
Absolutely. The rules are created to be followed. If following the rules produces undesirable side effects, then change the rules to prevent this.
No, you were making an ERROR. Nothing is free. What is WalMart supposed to do if you change the rules to increase their costs? Open up a private mint and coin money to pay them? No, WalMart will have to raise prices. Are higher prices "good" for the community? By observation, community members given the opportunity to pay higher prices to other retailers, do not do so. Now, what you seem to be recommending is that if the members of the community want lower prices, then they are wrong and you are going to be "moral" and FORCE them to pay higher prices anyway. And once again, there are no special "WalMart rules". The playing field IS level. WalMart is simply a more skillful player.
But all these damaged community members *continue* to shop at WalMart. So are you arguing that everyone else is stupid, or that they are all immoral? You sound like a religious fanatic. If nobody else will believe what you know is true, you will MAKE them behave "morally" anyway. And how about their preferences, which they express with every purchase? I guess other people's preferences don't much matter to you, because yours are RIGHT and theirs arent. Sheesh.
I'm saying that we have a rule structure, and WalMart operates within that structure. You sound like a little kid in class who gets a C grade and blames the kid who got an A for taking unfair advantage of the grading system.
WalMart *changes* communities. You dislike the changes. WalMart's customers seem delighted with the NET changes - the very fact they all shop there shows that lower prices are more valuable to them than the consequences (the negative values). The community has spoken, and spoken so loudly their preferences cannot be denied. I wouldn't be at all surprised if some opinion poll discovered that the community people wanted BOTH the low prices and the mom and pop stores (where they would not shop), PROVIDED they weren't taxed to subsidize the small expensive shops. In other words, people want the benefits, but don't wish to pay the costs. And indeed, some communities have refused to allow WalMart to build there. From what I have read, the people are very self-satisfied that they have "preserved" their community values - while they all drive down to the next town's WalMart to get those low prices!
Oh climb down! Now that we know in detail the consequences of our rule system, we can make *intelligent and informed* changes. Economics can help us predict the consequences of our changes. The rules still haven't changed: For every benefit, there is a cost. I notice you STILL haven't addressed what that cost is or who pays it. guthrie:
These are excellent examples of what you don't seem to realize. What we have done by *attempting* (but most emphatically NOT succeeding) to suppress these, is to drive up their cost to the consumer, vastly (by orders of magnitude) increasing the profits to the sellers, whom we have made both organized and wealthy. That's how supply and demand work. And this is true because the market IS amoral. The market doesn't care that policy makers are trying to protect the delicate sensibilities of people by telling them what they're not allowed to like. The market cares that the effort at suppression rearranges the costs and the benefits. It's no accident that drug dealers funnel huge gobs of campaign contributions into the coffers of the anti-drug candidates. They know what side their bread is buttered on.
I think BWE is arguing that there's no difference there. Whatever you prefer, whether it be chocolate over vanilla or red over blue, is a moral principle to him. |
| Date: 2006/01/06 11:38:41, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
| I wonder what units cleverness is measured in. Wits? |
| Date: 2006/01/06 13:15:24, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||||||
guthrie:
I'm quite sure you're correct. I recall a poll where the Bill of Rights was reworded to say functionally the same things, and people overwhelmingly disapproved of nearly every one of them. I agree these bans (remember prohibition?) are always done for moral reasons. And history is pretty clear on this one: banning things people want to do but do not want *other people* to do, never works very well. It's pretty obvious that we can't ban abortion; what we can do is make abortion prohibitively costly for the poor, much more costly for everyone else, and that these high costs will benefit those providing the abortion and related (i.e. transportation, underground clinics, quacks with coathangers, etc.) services. Alan Fox:
Consider: can evolution help us make predictions? Well, much like economics, it can make *some* predictions very accurately, but doesn't help much with other predictions. The economic prediction that changing cost structures will change resource allocation decisions in known ways is a slam dunk, like the evolutionary prediction that succeeding generations will share genes with their ancestors. The economic prediction that a recession or boom is coming, well, that's like predicting what the next cat to evolve will look like. Sir Toejam:
No, the reality is that the market is amoral. the market really does not care what we do. Supply and demand can be manipulated, and the market will follow.
Almost no objection - I think light regulation would be helpful, things like your standardized tests. Some way to ensure that schooling is actually taking place. Also, I personally see social value in a fairly common knowledge base.
Probably, though I might be expressing it differently. Free market forces are amoral. Lower the temperature and people will put on their coats. Certainly I don't deny that moral precepts influence market manipulations. That's what I was discussing above with guthrie - make drugs illegal for moral reasons, change the profit structure to make dealers so wealthy they can't buy banks fast enough.
I don't understand quite what you intend here. WalMart is successful because their business model works. They have accurately identified a public preference, and focused on it with narrow zeal. Allowing that they are subject to regulation like any other business, how is this not a free market behavior? This looks to me like the canonical better mousetrap.
This is a very different formulation. As BWE has made abundantly clear, people's individual morality may play a strong, perhaps decisive role in their rational assessment of their self-interest. Attempts to legislate morality, though, are invariably attempts to frustrate the perceived self-interests of others, where we ourselves are otherwise not directly affected. (For the sake of clarity, I'm defining moral legislation here as the prohibition of economic transactions whereby all of the parties to the transactions consider themselves satisfied.) And THOSE attempts, like the war on drugs or laws against abortion, don't change market "forces" per se, they change either supply or demand, and market forces adjust accordingly. Morality this ain't.
I admit I'm not clear what your point is. People make decisions about economic transactions (the exchange of goods and services, immediate or postponed) for a wide variety of reasons. Change the costs, change the incentives, and the pattern of transactions changes accordingly. Yes, there are inelasticities, but when gas prices rise, gas sales drop. Maybe the term "morality" needs to be set forth more concretely? I see nothing wrong, personally, in Henry Ford putting buggy-whip makers out of business, nor in WalMart putting mom&pop retailers out of business. These aren't moral issues as I see it, these are competition issues. Produce what the public wants (regardless of WHY they want it), and you will succeed at the expense of those who do not do the same. Where is the morality here? |
| Date: 2006/01/06 13:29:42, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||
| Author: Flint | ||||
Sir Toejam:
Again, can you explain a little more? What's obvious to you may not be obvious to others. I would say so many Americans support ID because doing so is in their perceived self-interest. They know science works really well, they know God exists and the Bible is His word. They WANT science to find God, so that there will be no cognitive conflict. ID makes the claim that science HAS found God. Hallelujah! They get their cake and eat it too. Who could ask for more? So BWE and I were talking about knowledge: Yeah, WalMart offers low prices, but you (the community member) don't get low prices for free. You pay a very real community cost for those low prices. But you have to KNOW, that your are paying a cost, and what that cost is, to make an informed decision about where to shop or how to modify the rules so as to change WalMart's cost structure and incentives. Education matters. Similarly with ID, you have to know something about science and something about ID to recognize that the claim that ID is a marriage between science and God is a false claim, based more on wishful thinking than anything else. Hey, I'm participating on these forums because I see real value in education. (I've never even HEARD of southpark. Is it a TV show? I don't watch TV...) Alan Fox:
Yes where they are appropriately applied, no where they are not. Economists are not morons; they know what their theories explain and predict well, and where their theories are worthless. Unfortunately, where their theories are least helpful just happens to be where people, especially politicians, most demand answers. Most economists I have read are quite ready to admit that their profession is ill-equipped to predict the future in these ways, and that they are speculating with little more basis than anyone else. I can fairly accurately predict that if the price of Brand X canned peas doubles, you will switch to another brand. I might even be able to predict the future price of canned peas, though this is like predicting the weather - accurate overnight, worth taking with some salt within 3 days, fiction beyond that. |
| Date: 2006/01/06 13:58:07, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
|
Alan: Actally, you raise an important point. Supply and demand are manipulated all the time for political reasons, which is one of the things that impedes good predictions. Maybe economics can help us (mostly through analysis of past situations regarded as sufficiently analogous) say if we do X, we'll get more Y. But then policies change again. And again. Also, you are correct that economists are much like expert trial testimony. For $400 an hour, anyone can hire a *qualified* expert to testify to anything. And so politicians hire economists to find plausible ways to explain how policies intended to reward or attract votes or money, are "good for the nation." And of course, ANY economic policy in the short run will be good for SOME of the nation. So it's not all hot air. And the long run is politically irrelevant; policies will change before then.
For years now, I confess. On the net, I can pretend I'm not a dog. |
| Date: 2006/01/06 14:26:35, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||||
Sir Toejam:
I don't want to quibble over adjectives. The way I interpreted your question, free market secondary education would be much like free market colleges - pretty much what we have in place today. I don't know where we'd draw the line and say "Beyond X amount of regulation, this isn't free market anymore." I'll debate this if you wish, though.
Then I will continue to dream. As I said, the college system is a free market system, with a very wide variety of choice among competing private colleges. Do we see "complete dogma"? Well, only if "a very short time" exceeds the several hundred years the private college system has existed, since it hasn't happened yet. Or are you going to argue that YOUR education was simply a matter of swallowing and memorizing "complete dogma"?
For my part, I've long suspected that outside your narrow specialty, you were a walking sloganeer, and I see that I was correct. For you, the rest of the world is "Anything I choose to believe so long as I remain too ignorant to know better." Which you are defending with all-too-familiar tactics.
You really must define your terms, otherwise you come across as a brainless ideologue. Maybe you ARE one, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. I think a fully free-market economy doesn't exist, has never existed, and cannot exist. It's simply a useful conception in model-building. Same with a true democracy. Let's assume a spherical cow in a vacuum - no, I mean let's assume everyone has a "vote button" hooked to a national network, and the entire population votes on every issue and proposal. Let's also presume that the vote is implemented immediately on being taken. How long would any government last? A few minutes? Sorry, but I'm aware that a great deal of regulation and inertia and resistance and friction (and checks and balances) must be built in for either an economy or a government to exist and operate effectively.
And are you proposing that all these people, who used to shop elsewhere, used to be LESS ignorant? People shop at WalMart because they perceive that they get good value for their money. And indeed, they DO get good value for their money. At a cost, to be sure. As a matter of fact, I think your entire pathetic display of spleen here is because you perceive that I am not a devout member of your Church of Anti-Walmart. Whereas, if you could set your faith aside long enough to check, you will find that I have NEVER ONCE taken a moral position about WalMart, good or bad. And I've done that for several purposes, only one of which is to use WalMart as an example of economic costs and benefits. I'll admit, one reason is to see who starts hyperventilating, assuming that since I haven't taken their position, I must therefore OPPOSE their position. Sound familiar? Still, I'm amused that you have dichotomized this issue to the point where the only two choices are to HATE WalMart, or to suffer "pure ignorance." Let us now pray, right?
From my perspective, I see that you are adamantly opposed to WalMart, and like any creationist, you are simply not open to ANY analysis of how they operate, what the consequences are, why they're successful, what we as a community may wish to change to improve matters, or anything else that might include facts. In your mind "WalMart" is like the word "evolution" in the mind of Pat Robertson - a trigger to stop thinking and start emoting and sloganeering.
And this is ALSO much like a creationist. Having preached, having told the sinner he's mentally incompetent, you stalk off in self-congratulation. As an economist, you're a good biologist, I suppose. You don't know the facts, you don't know the theory, but you DO know what's True, and nothing else matters. Bless you, brother. (And what's ironic is, I also see WalMart as a symptom of something deeply wrong with our regulatory system. Sorry that my approach is more analytical, and less emotional as you clearly would prefer (and practice)). |
| Date: 2006/01/06 14:38:27, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||
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Sir Toejam: OK, carrying right along here...
Yes, I'd say it's more rare than otherwise, if only because on a larger scale moral preferences tend to average out. But of course, this still depends on the definition of morality. Here's an example. I drive down the road, unaffected by those coming the other direction who stay on their side of the line. Are we obeying the rules of the road for moral reasons? If yes, then you are correct, morality determines just about everything. If no, then morality determines relatively little. So definitions matter.
Same issue here. Is every conflict of interests a moral conflict? Let's say I hire you to shingle my roof, and the next week it rains and my roof leaks. I sue you. Do we have a MORAL issue here? I wouldn't say so. You might.
Since you ask, absolutely not. Laissez faire systems as I understand them don't work - they tend to reward cheating and other mendacity and punish industry and honesty. Regulation is a practical necessity.
Truly, I don't think you really understand what I've been trying to say.
Think just for a moment. You have seen far more coherent arguments from me on subjects you know quite thoroughly. This is the first time the playing field has moved from where YOU are more knowledgeable, to where I am. Does this suggest anything to you about how your perceptions are influenced by your knowledge? Maybe a little bit? |
| Date: 2006/01/06 14:50:53, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Sir Toejam:
On further reflection, my irony meter needs replacement. I remember the many times you have implored creationists to just READ, follow these links, INFORM yourselves, know what you're talking about, base your objections (if any remain) on actual knowledge. But of course, the creationists don't NEED knowledge, they have Truth. And here we are, in a field where I know much more than you do, and the pattern is impossible to miss. I implore you to educate yourself, but you're content to tell me I'm incoherent, don't know what I'm talking about, you have the Truth. You are MORAL. This absolves you from actual, like, learning or anything. You think, knowing little or nothing about the field, that you can tell OTHERS they "haven't thought it out well." You know this because, well, you have FAITH. Just as a mental exercise, turn it around. Imagine that I, who admit I have no biological training, education, or experience at all, tell you that YOUR biological arguments are incoherent, and that you haven't thought them through. Just how patient would you be with me? I doubt you'd be any more patient than you are with the creationists whose techniques you are mimicing with impressive verisimilitude. But as I wrote earlier, economics is one of those subjects like politics or psychology where everyone considers themselves an automatic expert. And indeed, this is one of the factors that make the field difficult. So much to UNlearn, so little willingness to admit it. |
| Date: 2006/01/06 16:56:09, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
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After a little MORE reflection, maybe there's no irony here after all. Sir Toejam dismisses those whose knowledge is dwarfed by his own (and who disagree with him), as ignorant, while those who are admittedly without much knowledge (but who agree with him) are regarded as "coherent". Sir Toejam dismisses those whose knowledge (in other fields) dwarfs his own (and who disagree with him), as incoherent. Presumably those who agree with him, however ignorant of the subject, would be regarded as entirely reasonable. The salient common factor here may not be knowledge, but rather agreement. And in this respect, Sir Toejam is *precisely* like a creationist. Knowledge doesn't matter, logic doesn't matter, experience or education doesn't matter. His opinion is the ONLY yardstick. In his mind, someone becomes a coherent thinker to the extent that one agrees with him. His opinions may be based on no knowledge whatsoever (think creationist), but what does knowledge or understanding have to do with being correct? Maybe I'm wrong about the merits of a liberal education (in the old-fashioned sense of an education that exposes the student to multiple viewpoints about multiple subjects. The original PhD where the Ph denoted broad understanding across all disciplines). Sir Toejam, I'm willing to consider, may be truly authoritative on aquatic biology. But maybe we're seeing something analogous to famous actors pontificating on politics: he KNOWS he's an authority within his specialty, therefore he MUST be equally authoritative on anything where he has an opinion, however ignorant. The examples of even world-class scientists making truly idiotic "ex cathedra" statements WAY outside their field are legion. Personally, I really don't know whether the extreme reluctance to admit either error or ignorance is a function of education, specialization, morality, or character. It's surely an error to seek a single villain in any case. Personally, I suspect that the tendency to either listen or reject, when someone knowledgeable in another field speaks, is a character trait. |
| Date: 2006/01/06 19:56:54, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sir Toejam:
You have proposed a definition here. I would argue that an unregulated market would very quickly become an oligarchy. Free markets require continuous competition. Competition is unnatural and must be enforced. This calls for rather extensive regulation, since it's in the vested interest of the primary economic actors to circumvent such regulation and suppress competition. The result, in evolutionary terms is called an "arms race". It never ends. The primary actors keep finding ways to circumvent competition, the regulators keep stuffing a cork in it.
What baffles me is that what I've written could be interpreted as support for such a system. It's not a workable system. Rules are the rule! Anything resembling a free market requires continuous focused regulation. But regardless of the regulation (i.e. no matter how pervasive, how biased or directed, how micromanaged) people will STILL act in their perceived self-interest.
I don't know if this is very defensible, because of both the variation in such systems, and the malleability of human nature. I'm willing to agree that there ARE limits and boundaries to human nature, and that systems pushing the envelope are dubious. Consider: marriages are pretty close to pure communism, but they work. Small towns, deciding things by voice vote at town meetings, are pretty close to pure democracy, but they work. Why? I have my theories, of course, but this question is important. I suggest (as a proposal, not a doctrine) that people as a species evolved in groups large enough to constitute communities (people are gregarious), but small enough so that everyone in the group knew everyone else. In such an environment, morality was important; social status was critical. Social, political, and economic systems were workable in 200-member groups that are NOT workable in 200-million person nations.
And THIS is a Doctrine! Greed isn't necessarily bad; context matters. Personally, I think greed is a given. Any practicable market regulation must assume greed. But it can easily be argued that unregulated greed ultimately results in a net loss for the community.
We're back to battling opinions here. I think "pure" democracy would self-destruct very quickly. I think a "pure" free market would do the same. The "invisible hand" presumes unrestricted competition. When competition doesn't happen, economic benefits become polarized.
Not quite so funny, your ignorance of the subject has resulted in a serious misunderstanding. Ignorance has that effect. "Social Darwinsim" has historically made the bogus claim (by the "haves") that there is a biological justification for the economic and social status quo. Of course, there is no such justification. Economic circumstances have no biological component.
Where direct parallels exist, I will point them out. I hope I've made my point: you've been rather reflexive in dismissing those not knowledgeable in your field, and equally reflexive in dismissing those MORE knowledgeable in THEIR fields. This doesn't reflect well on you.
What do you consider a "classic education"? I'm quite curious. I'd certainly be willing to compete with you in terms of total degrees, total number of degress in different disciplines, total number of areas studied, total number or credit hours, and so forth. I was a "professional student" for *decades*. But perhaps you're equating a "classic educuation" with what YOU studied?
I pointed out that the technique you are using is a quintessential creationist technique. Of course I expect your response to be a combination of denial and accusation. That's ANOTHER creatinist technique. What would be dazzlingly NON-creationist would be to say "Maybe you know more about what YOU studied than I do, since I didn't study it." Of course, creationists dismiss knowledge as irrelevant...
A true laissez faire economy would be extremely unstable, if it were ever attempted. To my knowedge, it never has been. What's amusing to me is that I'm considered a far-left winger on the Ayn Rand-inspired forums, for my insistence that regulation is an absolute necessity. Depressingly, I've never found anyone sophisticated enough to discuss what sorts of regulation are appropriate, what regulatory limits might be imposed, what enonomic consequences might derive from various types of regulation, and so on. Nonetheless, I'm convinced that the KIND of regulation matters. We might wish to discuss this, once the necessities are dispensed with. Meanwhile, real-life politicaians have little choice but to deal with these questions, and do so daily.
This is a confusing request. I'm not trying to equivocate here, I'm trying to say something. Early in American history, in the days where the frontier was real, education was totally unregulated. Of course, the quality varied with the capabilities of the instructor(s). Whether or not the students of those schools were "better educated" than the students who went through the Eastern Establishment schools is impossible to quantify. Then as now, I would expect the best of either system to far exceed the worst of either system. But moving up to the present, you still find this a problematical issue. In inner cities, where public schools are battleground day care centers, education is a happy accident. You can easily find home-schooled and private-schooled students who have won national science awards, won national science-fair trophies, won national (you name it - chess competitions, spelling bees, etc.). With even LESS effort, you can find home-schooled students who can't find their ass with both hands. Indeed, the argument against free-market educational systems is that the variation in their success is unacceptably wide. Which is why I supported such systems, but with regulation. I proposed that they be like the college system, where accreditation matters. My unabashed goal is to allow each child to maximize his/her potential. My observation is the public schools for the most part (with exceptions at both extremes) hew to the mundane median; private schools occupy the extremes. I quite sincerely don't know how to inspire both public and private (and home) schools to do a uniformly outstanding job.
Accusations like this are hard to credit without any concrete illustrations. All I can say is, I studied both political and economic history extensively, MANY credit hours. I like to think I learned something in those courses. If my knowledge is "astoundingly bad" in comparison to yours, how much political and economic history have YOU studied? If I said that your knowledge of biology were "astoundingly bad" (never having studied it myself), would you feel personally remiss? Or would you dismiss my ignorant conclusions for what they'd be?
And I espoused this where?
No, I'm still taking you seriously and trying to answer you rationally.
Yes it was, and yes I remember. I haven't become angry at anyone yet. I'm still trying to communicate, rather than taking my ball and going home.
so far, YOU have been. In spades. But as I say, I haven't given up. |
| Date: 2006/01/09 03:04:48, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Interesting editorial by George Will. I don't know if it's kosher to reproduce it here, but since it's worth reading...
I admit this is the sort of conservatism I subscribe to. I strongly object to using civil powers (through the coercion of criminal laws, the incentives of tax breaks, or however) to attempt to get other people to follow my preferences. Granted, I may deplore what others choose to do, and I might wish they would stop. I might even consider those whose preferences differ from mine to be suffering from a serious case of either malice or ignorance. But I'm aware that many of those people feel the same way about what I do, and I resent their efforts to influence my preferences "for my own good." I'd also like to emphasize something Will only mentioned in passing. The tax code is guaranteed to "regulate the economy or bring about social change." No tax policy can be neutral - taxing anything changes the market's demand for it. Will is instead recommending that tax rates be low, and taxes be broadly based, and without specified exceptions. Taxes should also somehow resist constant tinkering. |
| Date: 2006/01/09 03:40:28, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
JimB: Sorry for the long delay. My video controller took a dump. I'll cheat and use my work computer here... I think you're right about supply and demand. These forces become especially problematical (and painful) when it comes to health care. Personally, I'd start by noting the sheer cost of health care, not in dollars so much as in the requirements of providing it effectively. Perhaps the important factors are: 1) Good physicians require enormous amounts of education, experience, and other training. And it may well be the case that only a small minority of people are capable of becoming highly qualified despite any amount of training. 2) Serious health problems are a lock. Everyone dies. Studies show that at least half the average person's medical costs occur in the last few months of their life. 3) For better or worse, the public is unforgiving about any perceived errors made by any health care providers. Malpractice awards are stratospheric. 4) State of the art medical care (drugs, equipment, etc.) calls for materials that are prohibitively costly to produce, but for which the demand is generally too low for truly high-volume production. 5) The state of the art is in rapid flux; yesterday's drugs and machinery are obsolete today. And maybe didn't work very well anyway. And maybe today's aren't that effective either. 6) But the same demand for perfection and penalties for malfunctions increases the cost of producing these things by orders of magnitude. Legal dispensation requires climbing an Everest of red tape, which requires lots of expensive people working for years. Now, add all these things together, and it quickly becomes apparent that the social cost of providing state of the art medical treatment to everyone who needs it, is going to bankrupt even the richest State. Half the citizens would be health care providers, caring for the other half, paid for in goods and services nobody would be left to produce. (There's an interesting parallel with law enforcement. If we wish public safety at the same level we want national healthcare levels, half of the population would be cops watching the other half, and half our buildings would be prisons.) In other words, there is going to be a point of diminishing returns, some point where a nation is providing all the medical care it can afford to provide *as an economy.* And inevitably, that point is going to be reached WELL before there's enough care to go around. The questions the become: a) Are we as a nation providing as much *total* care as we can - i.e. is the market properly balancing healthcare demands with all other demands? b) How is the available care being distributed? In other words, what distortions is the State introducing to the market for moral and/or political purposes? In different ways, the US and Canada both subsidize health care. The economic result is that there is MORE of it than a hypothetical free market would provide. Since there STILL isn't anywhere near enough to go around, the US and Canada have made different allocation decisions. The US has elected a system that provides care on a timely basis. Since there plain isn't enough to provide to *everyone* on this basis, the US sorts the recipients by ability to pay. The poor (except for low-quality emergency care) lose out. Canada has chosen to provide care on a "treat everyone equally" basis. The shortage of care under the Canadian system means that *everyone* waits a long time. In serious cases, the delay proves fatal. In other words, Canada sorts the recipients by *severity of problem*, an effective triage approach where those with the worst problems, rather than the poor, lose out. But the point is, *someone* must lose out. Competent health care is always going to be scarce and expensive; that's the nature of the beast. No matter HOW we decide to distribute it, some receive (adequate) care and most do not. So at this point, I'd like to ask how an "unbroken" system is going to distribute a resource that everyone needs, but only a few can receive enough of. In your ideal world, who gets it and who doesn't? |
| Date: 2006/01/09 04:19:42, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Dean,
Bear with me, but I have several problems with this statement, and I'd like to address them one at a time. 1) I did not advocate leaving anything to the 'free' market - I have been very very careful NOT to advocate any such thing on this thread. I have tried to point out that the market is in the business of making allocation decisions, and that different market distortions (economic policies) influence these allocations. I haven't recommended any particular allocation. 2) I did not make a case for spending taxpayer money on medical care. Making such a case would *necessarily* require that I specificy and justify what I would want LESS of, in order to get MORE medical care. Remember, recommending goodies for everyone is what politicians do. Economists must recognize that there are only so many goodies available, not nearly enough to go around, and that if we increase medical goodies, we must *decrease* something else. Politicians never say what we should have LESS of. But a cost/benefit ratio cannot even be approximated without consideration of the costs. You may have interpreted (though I didn't say explicitly) that allocating more resources toward health care is a benefit. In fact, I think it could be regarded as a benefit, but no benefit comes without a cost. And therefore, the ONLY reason you see "winners all around" is because you've carefully ignored the losers. But there HAVE to be losers. Money taken away from you by government to pay for someone else's health care, is money YOU don't have to spend on what YOU want. You might not consider this a loss, but most people will. You might consider it a loss worth taking, but it's still a loss. |
| Date: 2006/01/09 08:02:45, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||
BWE:
Close enough.
Yes.
Economic policies, as a rule, shift costs and benefits around. We discussed the progressive income tax a few pages back. The entire purpose of this strategy is to place the costs entirely on those who get no direct benefits, and benefit those who pay none of the costs. We do this because as a nation, we have made the political decision that government costs and benefits should be borne unequally.
I'm not sure I understand this. Benefits match costs, but are not borne by the same populations. A member of a community might consider the "WalMart effect" to be either beneficial or detrimental, depending. I don't think you'll find unanimous agreement.
Which conclusion? I would argue that you need a good deal of education to determine HOW to change the rules, so that you don't suffer too many unexpected consequences. I don't think you need ANY education to determine WHETHER to change the rules. That's an emotional decision.
Any time you speak about a "good thing", you need to qualify this by specifying whom it's good for, and in what way. It's an exceedingly rare case where anything anyone considers a good thing (for him), someone else considers a bad thing (for him). IF WalMart's goal were to pay huge dividends to its stockholders (but it's not), then WalMart's tactics would be a "good thing" for the stockholders, in their opinion. But instead, WalMart keeps their costs to a minimum to keep their prices to a minimum, and their profit margin is industry average. This is a Good Thing in the opinion of those who shop there, while they are shopping. But many of the same people who shop there to get low prices, simultaneously lament the effects WalMart has on the rest of the community, which they consider a Bad Thing. NOT bad enough to shop elsewhere, of course... |
| Date: 2006/01/09 08:22:54, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||
Dean:
"Worthwhile" is a value judgment. I agree that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. If I'm selling prevention, this is my sales pitch. If I'm selling cure, I place my emphasis somewhat differently...
This claim needs a bit more depth. I think you could argue that most policies are designed to modify supply and demand, so as to make the market serve new motivations. Some resources are indeed allocated outside any market mechanism.
"The market" in this sense shouldn't be anthropomorphized. The market is an emergent result of zillions of discrete individuals making autonomous economic transations. To a very real extent, people make these transactions in anticipation of future trends and/or events. It would be quite accurate to say that "the market" is exercising foresight to the degree that the individual actors are doing so.
That sense of efficiency had to do with how much information the market had about its transations, how transparently that information was available to all participants. And in this sense, the market is as efficient as available information (both quantity and quality) permit. Inefficiencies are introduced through secrecy, misinformation, and the sheer perverse refusal of the future to make itself known until it's too late to take advantage of it.
I don't know. I can tell you that my community offers vaccinations - through my doctor, my employer, or whatever. For a fee, I can purchase preventive medicine. Legally coercing people to be vaccinated isn't a market mechanism, though, I agree...
Yep, there are bargains out there to be had. We might regard disease, like pollution, as an economic externality. Communities band together to cooperate for the common good, which in practice means forcing someone to do or refrain from doing something in the interests of everyone else, whether they want to or not. We experience a constant community debate as to whether any action's benefits exceed the costs by enough to justify imposing the costs on (some) members of the community, who rarely wish to pay it. |
| Date: 2006/01/09 09:38:40, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||
|
Dean, I think we're mostly communicating, but in some cases just missing. Probably my fault...
Why necessarily through taxation? If I invented a preventive treatment that was guaranteed effective, and I sold it for an affordable price, would you buy it?
Not everyone would agree with you here. Yes, lack of information and various structural rigidities make the market less efficient. But government action introduces LOTS of inefficiency no matter WHAT it does. So efficiency really isn't the issue at all here. What's at issue is (a) whether something is beneficial enough for the "common good" to justify coercion by the State; and (b) how we determine where that point lies. But this is the content of politics and political science since before recorded history. Just what is the "optimal" way for a community to make decisions that affect that community, so that we approximate some "ideal" midpoint between the community inferfering too much with the life of the individual, and the individual interfering too much with the well-being of the community.
I'm well aware of it. It's a good argument for involuntary vaccination.
Really? Do you have a link? My notion of "laissez faire" is that the market should not be regulated. "Laissez faire" means "let do", and implies that anything goes. It does NOT necessarily imply that there is no government or no taxation, nor does it specify anything in particular about the poor or the wealthy. It just says that the government won't act as the mediator in contract enforcement.
Absolutely. I am most emphatically NOT a proponent of "laissez faire" economics. However, I'd like to point out that truly elementary microeconomic analysis presumes such a system, much as elementary physics presumes no friction or boundary effects. These are simplifying assumptions to clarify certain principles; they aren't reality.
I don't understand this accusation. What I objected to was an economic analysis that carefully assumed away and ignored ALL of the benefits, to misrepresent a situation as a "pure" cost. This kind of "analysis" is either profoundly dishonest, or profoundly ignorant. So I tried to point out that for every benefit there are costs (to someone), and for every cost, there are beneficiaries. Economics consists of identifying both the costs and benefits, and the economic actors experiencing them. In the process, I seem to have encountered some poorly-thought-out but nonetheless (and perhaps *therefore*) intensely-held political positions. To the point where even *mentioning* that there are benefits purchased with costs, sets some people off like fireworks. Someone on this thread actually said (and quite evidently believes) that anyone who shops at WalMart does so out of pure abject ignorance and for no other reason! |
| Date: 2006/01/09 10:27:31, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||
| Author: Flint | ||||
Alan Fox:
Well, as I recall, the US tried to ban alcohol. The effects of that effort were regarded as profoundly negative on society, MUCH worse than the alcohol ever was, and indeed a good argument can be constructed that those effects are still with us. Prohibition lasted 12 years, easily long enough for crime to get organized and STAY organized. However, you are correct that while we wouldn't eliminate smoking or drinking, we WOULD eliminate the excise taxes imposed on these activities. The savings that consumers enjoyed in lowered taxes, by experience, were more than offset by lowered product quality. Of course, it's an ill wind that blows nobody good: organized crime made a fortune. This was the single most profound economic effect of prohibition - and also an effect *completely unanticipated* by those who thought they were doing everyone a favor. After all, the demand never diminished. The attempt was made to cut off the supply. This invariably causes prices (and profit margins) to skyrocket. When profits are astronomical and not obtainable legally, then they are obtained illegally. Always. Our current "war on drugs" makes drug dealers so wealthy they don't know how or where to store all the money. These dealers also contribute heavily to anti-drug politicians; they know the score even if do-gooders don't get it. If you're asking for my personal values, I would require that everything known about the health effects of smoking and drinking be prominently displayed so anyone curious about them couldn't possibly miss them. Then I'd let people make whatever informed decision they saw fit.
In general, what you're talking about is information. I think most people will take preventive steps if they're aware of them, and if those steps aren't too inconvenient. And I also agree that preventive health care however achieved would increase per capita productivity significantly. But once again, the question isn't whether such care would increase productivity, reduce sick time, etc. The question is whether others *ought* to have the authority to impose "wise" health choices on you. And that is not an economic issue at all. That goes back to the philosophical tradeoff between obligation and liberty. We all owe the community something for the value the community provides. But HOW MUCH do we owe, and how do we DECIDE how much we owe? |
| Date: 2006/01/09 11:41:05, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||
| Author: Flint | ||||
Alan Fox:
In other words, legal with reasonable regulation (to regulate perhaps age of purchase, quality of ingredients, etc.) Yeah, you'd get my vote. JimB:
Exactly so. This is called the "free rider" effect. Where everyone is honest, nobody needs a lock. A single, or a very few, thieves have it made. But as theft becomes more commonplace, people start taking steps to make it harder to do - make it more expensive. Same with WalMart and the local community - WalMart's health requires a healthy community, where customers come from. So WalMart can't afford to damage its host too much without damaging itself. BWE: Where everyone tries to get more than everyone else out of a community resource, the entire community loses. Many ecologists are convinced that by breeding like bacteria, we have already exceeded the steady-state carrying capacity of the planet. The known result of overbreeding your resource base is a population implosion. What people have been "smart" enough to do is exploit the entire planet, and switch to new resources as prior ones are depleted. This strategy has two effects: it allows us to spend longer building up to a higher total population, and it guarantees a maximally vicious implosion when the time comes (because the resources we've spent took 10^8 years to accumulate, and will take that long to recover). We have treated the entire planet as "the commons" and we've been engaged for a couple of hundred years in desperate haste to consume all we can of it before anyone else gets there first. Some days, I feel truly sorry for our grandchildren. |
| Date: 2006/01/09 14:16:38, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
I gotta agree. The sheer unbridled success of the scientific method generally (do what works, figure out why it works so you can do other things that work) is doing too good a job of promoting itself. Among people generally, who attend school and know that the really really smart people go into science and NONE of these people go into the clergy, and who enjoy a standard of living that doesn't seem to have anything to do with prayer, it's clear how to bet. People LIKE being comfortable in this world, science has found a whole lot about this world that makes us even more comfortable, and has found no sign of any afterlife. Science does all this by simply ignoring the supernatural as though it doesn't even exist. The sheer numbing irrelevancy of institutionalized superstitions gradually soaks in on people because they're simply ignored. Nobody spends much time sitting around denying the gods; why bother? Even worse, the evil materialistic worldview makes a better life available directly; there's no magic rituals, no priesthood. Ecclesiastical stuff has no pride of place; it's just as available on the buffet of life options as anything else, competing on even terms and ultimately offering very little. Gradually people understand that they DO have a choice, they CAN sample what's offered, and compare. I really don't think the religious folk like a fair game, where you can only win on your merits. They fall distinctly short in the merit department... |
| Date: 2006/01/09 16:45:56, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
stevestory:
While we will probably have to agree to disagree on this one, I stand by the point I tried to make. Over the decades (am I really getting old? Dang! And there's probably a minority who have reacted against this relentless secularization rather violently, by becoming fanatical in their belief, babbling about gods and magic books all day and fighting to deploy civil force against the unbeliever. And so, more and more, I see hostility between those who are Sunday morning Christians, and those who consider themselves True Christians and the other variety fakers. I'd argue that our culture basically forces this kind of polarization. When I was young, I think only a tiny minority of today's movies would have been makeable, or even cross the minds of the moviemakers. The scandalous books of the day would be completely innocuous by today's standards. But it's much deeper than this. A book written about Jack London's attempt to sail single-handed around the world written when I was born had nearly nothing to say about London's background, or his route, his supplies, his boat, etc. Instead, the book focused entirely on whether London's motivation for doing so was Righteous (to prove himself worthy in God's eyes) or Sinful (to cash in on the publicity). Today, nobody would even think to raise the issue, which wouldn't be relevant anyway. And this "Jack Londonism" (to coin a phrase) used to permeate the views of every commentator on everything. So over the decades I see a sea change from a default view where God informed our lives, to a default where we are (except for the fanatics) no longer offended all that much by the books we read, the websites we visit, the movies we watch (we certainly watch! Yeah, there are 5 theists for every anti-theist or atheist, but theism ain't what it used to be. The march of technology has sucked the intensity out of most of it, and I see the creationism as a last-gasp, rearguard attempt to recapture a time that will never come again. YMMV. |
| Date: 2006/01/10 03:56:07, Link 65.91.2.68 |
| Author: Flint |
|
As far as I can tell, the best way to promote secular values isn't through preaching them explicitly, but by having them gradually pervade the culture, as has been happening. More and more, people want both convenience and justice NOW, not in the afterlife. Maybe we need to clarify what "secular values" really are. To me, they imply living in comfort, having access to real knowledge (and recognizing the utility of knowledge), seeking rewards and fulfillment while I live. But maybe there's a lot more to it that I haven't run into any need to study? I regard the Golden Rule as a good solid secular rule of thumb. |
| Date: 2006/01/10 09:29:42, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
As celtic_elk's link makes pretty clear, the interpretation of the 2nd Amendment the NRA defends doesn't very closely line up with the interpretation the ACLU sets forth. Without taking any particular position on this myself, it seems clear that the NRA very carefully pretends the first half of that amendment doesn't exist, while the ACLU has decided the second half is the one that doesn't really mean anything. And so the NRA thinks the amendment says that everyone is guaranteed an unlimited right to bear whatever arms they see fit, from poison gas to suitcase nukes. The ACLU thinks the amendment is a now long-obsolete relic of the original 13 states' reluctance to disarm themselves *as States*, because they feared excessive Federal authority. The issue has clearly raised national emotions beyond any reconciliation in the form of a single Supreme Court interpretation, so the issue is very carefully sidestepped and probably always will be. It's probably also the case that neither side in this issue really dares pursue it to any definitive decision, for fear of what that decision might be. Instead, the courts are content to let "reasonable regulation" take its course, and the ACLU is unwilling to rock the boat of benign neglect. |
| Date: 2006/01/10 11:15:28, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
Mr_Christopher: Did you read the ACLU material at the link? They make what I consider a fairly good point - that the NRA (whatever they may believe; I don't know if I exaggerated their beliefs or not) in practice concedes that some level of arms regulation is reasonable. The ACLU then claims that this being the case, the debate only revolves around what degree of regulation we as a people consider reasonable. I got the distinct impression that the ACLU believes that if we as a people decide that "reasonable regulation" means outlawing all private ownership *except* when a State has called up and armed an active militia, the 2nd Amendment is still not violated. To me, this degree of flexibility renders the 2nd Amendment pretty meaningless. Yes, we're aware that in the 18th century, living in sometimes hostile conditions and with hunting for food a common necessity (as well as defense against animals, etc.) gun ownership was as much a necessity (and thus taken for granted) as vehicle ownership is today. I'm not personally convinced that 18th century SOP should in all circumstances be regarded as today's ideal model. I'm not persuaded myself that an armed citizenry presents any serious obstacle to a national military force, so I agree with the ACLU in that. I'm personally not opposed to "reasonable regulation" so long as all serious voices get a say in what's reasonable. To me, personal arms are for hunting, collecting, recreation, and self-defense. My own collection of about a dozen guns fall into all but the hunting category; my wife competes in shooting contests, we both carry everywhere we can. If our own activities became too difficult, we'd probably join the forces of the gun-nuts ourselves. But I see the outcome of the suit you spoke of (I hadn't heard anything about that) as reasonable. They had no good cause to confiscate guns, and the court agreed. Presumably, next time it won't happen. This is the kind of "reasonable regulation taking its course" I spoke about. Sounds reasonable to me. |
| Date: 2006/01/10 11:51:26, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
I also support the ACLU. I was in a discussion on some board not too long ago, where (as usual) the fundies were excoriating the ACLU as the tool of the fags, commies, and baby killers. I provided a sizeable list of cases where the ACLU was explicitly defending the rights of Christians to BE Christians. My argument was that Christians had just as many civil liberties as any other citizen, and those liberties deserved to be defended as much as anyone else's. I gave links. The response was informative. Clearly, I must be lying. Since I was defending the ACLU, I couldn't be trusted. Since I provided links, the links couldn't be trusted. But others pointed out that I couldn't possibly have fabricated all those sites; these cases were mentioned all over the place. I think the net conclusion was that those in the ACLU were so abysmally stupid that they defended Christians simply because they didn't have the brains to know what they were doing! |
| Date: 2006/01/10 16:36:36, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||||||
haceaton:
Sigh. Yes, I understand.
So the question is, could WalMart increase total profits by raising their prices? After all, most of what they sell is commodity items, and commodity items tend to sell on price alone. Which means you don't need to undercut your competition by more than a little bit to get all the sales. My perception is that WalMart has a more complex goal structure than simply maximizing profits. They're aware that this goal, all by itself, is highly impermanent. If we layer on ancillary goals like maintaining acceptable (but not highest possible) profit levels for as long as possible, strategies change.
You seem to be falling into the Sir Toejam mire of assuming anyone with whom you disagree is stupid (or would you allow ignorant in addition?) I thought on one of my posts earlier, I spoke of spending all of economics 101 creating and solving the total profit curve, to find the ideal price such that either lowering OR raising the price reduced total profits. Do you sincerely feel I don't follow this? I think we agree that WalMart's total strategy is intended to both solidify and increase their market position, not to take the money and run.
Let me guess. It's because they are EVIL BASTARDS out to line their pockets by abusing their power at the expense of us poor schmucks who couldn't vote in an honest Congress because the Big Guys have all the politicians in their pockets, and are manipulating government regulation so that it protects them and their profits at our expense. Am I getting warm?
Golly, I hope you feel better now. I understand SO MUCH MORE than I did before your fine little performance. You may pat yourself on the back and go enlighten some other pathetic ignoramus now. I won't mind. If you want to play some more after you grow up, that's fine too. You clearly have nothing to learn from anyone. BWE:
But nobody said we did. What you would learn in economics is how to do things like set product price and quality so as to maximize profits. And to analyze costs and benefits so that you are not taken by surprise.
Yes, but the moral choices made by a very large number of actors can be generalized enough to make fairly accurate predictions in some areas. We are still not communicating. Consider: The odds of rolling snakeyes can be calculated, regardless of whether gambling is considered moral. There is a qualitative difference between the optimal strategy for playing the game, and whether the game itself *ought* to be played. You seem to be trying to make the case that the best way to understand economics is to attend church so as to avoid sinful differential calculus.
But again, we are talking about different things. Even assuming that WalMart follows haceaton's implicit dictum that the more cynical he is, the more accurate he is likely to be about how the world works, and that assuming "the enemy" (everyone else) is as dishonest as they can get away with, supply and demand still operate. Haceaton apparently believes that Adam Smith missed the boat entirely, and that Al Capone was the real economist. But that doesn't make it true at all. Economics is a world of costs and benefits, where more of something means less of something else. An economy is where zillions of individual transactions determine relative values of everything. WHY those transactions are made really don't matter that much. If you wish to believe that people buy brand X canned peas for moral reasons, fine. Economists will note with amusement that the most moral peas ALSO tend to have the lowest price, all else being equal. As these discussions continue, it becomes clear that WalMart, probably by their very success, has triggered deep-seated political instincts. You and haceaton seem so fanatically convinced that WalMart is evil that any effort to understand their business model that does NOT continuously rave and drool against the Unclean is regarded as either hopelessly uninformed (by haceaton), or outright immoral( by you). But WalMart is nonetheless an economic actor, and their policies do in fact have economic effects beneficial to some and harmful to others. I think it's kind of sad that fanatacism has made this simple observation so difficult for you two to understand or accept. To you, all I can say is bless you, brother. May you live in righteousness. To haceaton, I can say I'm glad I don't live in the world of his imagination, where he tries to puff up his withered soul by living among terrible enemies of whom he assumes the worst. |
| Date: 2006/01/10 16:51:23, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||
| Author: Flint | ||||
JimB:
My approach is to say that humans are a gregarious species, and that things like rights emerge from social interactions generally. We know that we benefit from cooperation. We can do things together we can't do individually, and we can organize an effective division of labor. The benefits of these things are very substantial. But to implement them, we must make concessions to one another; we must agree to restrict our behavior in ways congenial to those with whom we cooperate, and expect them to do the same. So "rights" are what we as a group allow all of us as members of that group to do without causing undue grief to the group itself. And that's the cost we pay to get the benefits of social living. As for where we draw the line, this line is in constant motion, in thousands of ways, all the time, depending on a never-ending process of negotiation. There are no absolute rules, only general principles that emerge over time from what has been discovered to work well enough.
I don't think this is how they feel, but I may be wrong. By observation, fundamentalists don't wish to relinquish any of *their* rights, they only want you to give up yours. They have mastered the double standard, which they've done by ginning up some gods to whom they alone speak privately and directly, who advises them that their urges and preferences are Officially Approved. When have you ever heard of a Christian being told by God that he's wrong? |
| Date: 2006/01/11 03:44:59, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||||||||||
haceaton:
Multiple comments seem called for here. First, it can reasonably be said that ALL for-profit businesses are out to maximize their wealth as a primary goal. I don't know why you would consider this a bad thing per se. According to even the most basic notions of the market, for-profit businesses are presumed to be attempting to increase their wealth. As Robert Townsend wrote in Up The Organization, if you're not in business for fun or profit, what are you doing here? Second, I can't see why you refuse to accept that businesses (including WalMart) can have no other motivations. As you point out, they pay fairly low dividends, although they could pay much more. So the owners aren't taking advantage of dividends to maximize their wealth. How about the price of the stock? Well, no, WalMart stock is selling for 10% less than it did 5 years ago. They are *losing* money on the stock price. Now, I suppose you might argue that WalMart's owners are stupid. They could easily extract a great deal more personal wealth out of their company, at least in the short run. Yet they do not. Perhaps their goal is to maximize their wealth over a much longer timespan? But doing this will entail reaching some kind of equilibrium with the communities where they operate... (Incidentally, I've seen economic analyses indicating that WalMart's low-price policies have had a measurable effect on national inflation rates. A positive thing for most of us, even if it is ALSO positive for the major shareholders.)
With a business as large as WalMart, I'd take this on a case-by-case basis. My reading (YMMV certainly) is that most of the cases aren't WalMart corporate policy, and most have been zealousness on the part of individual store managers. But it also seems that corporate headquarters hasn't been aggressive in stopping some of the improper practices. And so I have been arguing from the start that regulation is a necessity. Certainly the motivation to make money is uppermost, and store managers are evaluated on that basis. In a larger sense, business success is evaluated on that basis, and the failures go broke and vanish. The motivation to bend or break rules and cut corners is strong. (Would you fall over backwards in astonishment if news were to come out that Toyota has been cooking the books?)
I regard it as inherent in any capitalist system, considered generally as any system where the more money one makes, the more one gets to keep. These aren't "lapses" so much as they are a continuous battle between those who make and enforce the rules, and those who seek ways to circumvent the rules. A story is told of a robber baron who called in his lawyer and said "Find me a legal way to do this." And the lawyer replied "But sir, you can't do that, it's illegal." And the robber baron replied, "That's not what I asked."
Perhaps where we differ here is, I regard it as being as honest and ethical as (say) General Motors, or Sears or any other large business. And a LOT better than the Enrons of the world. I sincerely believe WalMart (and others) top management wishes to make a good-faith effort to keep integrity levels at or just above minimally acceptable. I don't think Sears achieved market dominance through underhanded management, nor lost it by becoming honest. If you revisit your list of "how the real world works", you'll notice that nowhere do you even mention customers or competitors.
Well, I'm not trying to dispute your political preferences. I just don't believe there ever has been a "golden age" when politicians or businesses were more honest, and in fact my reading of American history is that there have been periods of truly boggling corruption. If you'd been alive 100 years ago and known what was going on, you'd have had apoplexy. Of course, the tycoons ran the media, so you wouldn't have known.
Do you post on PT also?
We seem to approach this from different angles. Economic theory as I understand it provides tools for analysis of a shrinking, steady, or growing market. Growth isn't a necessity, but it has implications different from the other conditions. I'll observe that fertility is inversely proportional to living standard; if ALL nations could consume at the rate the US is consuming, perhaps the birth rate would go down more voluntarily?
Imagine my surprise.
Um. No such thing as "absolutely can't pollute". There are only relative costs. Politicians aren't about to shut down the major employer in a community. The problem is wider: If running a non-polluting operation is prohibitively expensive (which it is for some sorts of manufacturing), then the level of polluting one can get away with influences the price of the product, which influences market share. Often, the competition is in China, where pollution levels are ghastly, and the Yellow River runs with sludge the half the year when it runs at all. Combine this with Chinese peasants working for peanuts, and its very hard for American businesses to compete. Competitive failure costs lots of American jobs and industries, and politicians are sensitive to this. Some balance needs to be struck between allowing pollution, and losing the businesses (which causes the people to elect the opponent!
But other tradeoffs must always be made. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding you, but you seem to be implying that the decision to pollute/break laws/act unethically implies a character trait without economic ramifications. But I doubt people buy Toyotas because corporate headquarters is populated by good citizens. Instead, they buy Toyotas because they are competitively priced in relation to their level of quality. Now, I agree that the example set by Toyota and others shows that it CAN be done. But of course, Toyota is out to maximize their profits as well, and Toyota lobbies powerfully at local, state and national levels. And Toyota employees are paid less in both upfront wages and indirect benefits than GM employees. And Toyota's primary owners are very rich. And Toyota aggressively seeks favorable tax treatment. In my district, a new Toyota plant just opened that was enticed to locate here in exchange for *bonuses instead of taxes*. (Incidentally, diluting stock as you described is a very serious SEC no-no. Recently the accounting rules were changed (admittedly over stuck-pig protests) to consider options differently, as actual stock. Keeping two sets of books, one for the SEC and one for the public, lands you in jail very #### quickly. Many other items on your list are "heads I win, tails you lose" things - if they pay high dividends, they are ripping us off. If they don't pay any dividends, they're ripping us off. If they pay enormous salaries to their top brass, they're ripping us off. If they don't they're ripping us off. As for keeping wages in line with skills, this is problematic. Most WalMart jobs are unskilled or semi-skilled; nearly any retard can do them. This is in the nature of retailing. But WalMart must STILL compete for such people with other employers; they get no "first dibs" on anyone.) |
| Date: 2006/01/11 06:20:50, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||
BWE:
I guess I need to clarify this. You don't need any understanding of economics at all to make economic policy, but you DO need this understanding to predict what your policy might lead to. Politicians know what their constituents want, and they do it. Often enough, they're well aware that the actual results will probably be, and that the results are the opposite of their stated intent.
Yeah, too true. These economists aren't hired to explain what will happen, but rather to produce plausible deniability in support of short-term profits. Yes, large amounts of money are at stake, along with different time frames and commons issues.
Maybe this is a semantic issue. I'd say these people are making monetary decisions based on their immediate self-interest.
They aren't buying morality or immorality, they are making a transaction they regard as an investment. Contribute $X to a political campaign, get policies worth $50X in exchange. For them, a bargain.
If by "reasonable economic choices" you mean purchasing decisions, this is true. If you mean setting price and quality of your product, this is not true. If you mean making economic political policy, economics can help you determine financial impact on specified actors. |
| Date: 2006/01/11 08:45:36, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||||||||
|
haceaton: Good to get the discussion back where we can actually address these issues.
OK, fine, so long as we agree that maximizing wealth can be construed in different ways, over different periods of time, and (as you point out) tempered with other goals. Perhaps ultimately ANY economic goal can be considered "wealth" including goodwill, market share, longevity, committed and dedicated employees, etc.
I'm going to continue to insist that "good" and "bad" are personal and entirely relative. What is good for someone is generally bad for someone else. If someone plays by the rules, this is all I think we can reasonably require. Like in sports, there is a difference between being a hard-nosed player (admired), and unsportsmanlike conduct (generally illegal). As I wrote, competitors will (and IMO *should*) seek every possible way to get an edge. If shabby treatment of employees is "bad", presumably some competitor can outcompete them by treating employees better and thus attracting better employees. If community relationships sour, someone more community-oriented can outcompete them. The most effective regulation I know of is regulation that ensures that competition is as transparent as possible.
Then you feel the system has *always* been "seriously broken"? I wonder if you could put your finger on a time and place where "the system" was NOT "broken".
This statement is meaningless without some scale of ethics against which the measurement is made, along with some more-or-less objective point ON that scale below which is "too low". I personally would hate to have to specify either one.
I agree. The notion that executive incentives will inspire the officers to perform better strikes me as absurd. Even where bonuses are tied to performance, there always seem to be ways of finding rewards. And no amount of money will make the executives smarter or better able to predict the future.
Yep, that's right. I wrote earlier of "a continuous battle between those who make and enforce the rules, and those who seek ways to circumvent the rules." But my gut feeling is that this battle is healthy, and that NOT seeking an edge for "ethical reasons" isn't so healthy. The kind of "ethical behavior" I envision (maybe I'm misinterpreting?) is like for a ballplayer to deliberately strike out because his team is well ahead and the opposing pitcher's statistics need a little boost. Maybe to you this is "kindness" but to me it's a disturbing violation of the game itself. Even altruism, IMO, should be practiced in the interests of maximizing self-interest, though perhaps more long-term. "Ethical" considerations, at least in sports, are usually a quid pro quo - I'll tank this match when you desperately need a win and I don't, in the expectation that you'll return the favor later. To me, this isn't a matter of helping out those who need a hand; it's a way to undermine the integrity of the game. I just don't think WalMart should take actions that reduce their immediate total profits, EXCEPT in the hopes that by doing so, they can increase their long-term profits. This is what I meant by an equilibrium with the community.
I think I can understand the argument that, at least during some interval, it's in their interest in the medium term to shovel profits back into growth. After all, "never" means "not right now." Even Microsoft has started to pay dividends (however minimal).
I'm not sure I follow here. Top management can maximize their personal wealth by being granted a major bundle of stocks and then pay lots of dividends; by being granted a bundle of stock and having the market price rise a bunch, or by paying themselves huge salaries and bonuses. In the context of WalMart, I wasn't seeing the Walton family doing any of the above. But I just left a company that pays minimal wages, loses money every quarter (for years now), and pays the CEO in the millions per year. They also pay no dividends.
I think there are different flavors here. I know at the company I just left, there was a program of granting options to those above a certain pay grade. But this didn't increase the number of shares outstanding on the books. Granted, when they wanted more shares they needed a vote, and most shareholders rubber-stamped it. |
| Date: 2006/01/11 09:56:27, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||
Sir Toejam:
I suspect you are right. You have assumed a dichotomy: There's free, and there's not free. I have assumed a continuum, with a level of regulation varying from nearly nothing up to a tightly controlled and managed economy. So for me, a "free" market is one toward the less-regulated range of this continuum. My notion of economics is that management is unavoidable. Even the "ideal" laissez faire notion has a form of management; it's just redirected into such things as assassinations, espionage, sabotage, and other mechanisms that work toward a sort of equilibrium. I personally believe that so long as competition is strictly enforced, the competition itself will act as a powerful regulator of market behavior. And one of the best enforcements of competition is a practice of full disclosure of nearly everything any supplier is doing. In fact, without some pretty comprehensive (and timely and accurate) information, competition is inhibited and the market suffers regardless of how stringent the regulation.
Again, we have different definitions of "free". I still see this as a matter of degree. I'll admit I'm more a proponent of incentives than micromanagement. I'll wager that if we eliminated all of OSHA in favor of a policy that "each job-related injury will cost you a million bucks, whether it was preventable or not" we'd see a dramatic improvement in safety. Of course, we'd need to set this up so as not to provide an incentive to employees to GET injured...
Maybe we have difficulty with the term "morality" just like we viewed "free" differently. I think it's entirely legitimate to start up a company armed with a really good idea and an effective business plan, and sell ownership in the company to raise capital. I've done this myself. My experience was that those who purchased this ownership exercised it by ensuring that their investment was directed toward implementing the idea, so that future income would come from sales of product within some reasonable time frame. So I presume you're saying that if I had set things up so the investors had no such authority, and then spent their money on high living until I ran out of investors, that would be immoral. And I suppose so; I admit I was never able to find such investors. |
| Date: 2006/01/11 11:51:34, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
Russell: I agree the term is pretty hazy. Perhaps we need to start a Jeff Foxworthy-type contest: You might be a fundamentalist if: -You think your faith should be preached in public school -You don't trust anyone who hasn't been 'born again' -You approach all problems by asking 'What would Jesus do?' -You find dubya a little bit too liberal where it counts -You're sure there's no interpretation involved in your reading of scripture -You believe any statement supporting God can't be wrong Fell free to keep suggesting stuff... |
| Date: 2006/01/11 14:13:47, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||
| Author: Flint | ||||
Sir Toejam:
I think I understand what you're saying. Adam Smith's invisible hand was quite straightforward in saying that broad social benefits resulted from each individual actor being motived by pure short-term greed. I think the morality of short-term greed in the eyes of the Randroids has been morphed into a virtue, but Rand's fictional characters were painfully honest about their greed - which did NOT motivate them to lie, steal, and then vanish. The buyer can't beware if he has no information. And I don't understand how anyone can "artificially inflate" stock values using complete, accurate and timely information. Most of that information was deliberately incorrect. But maybe some of the junk tech companies weren't set up under false pretenses, they just quickly figured out that (a) they had a ton of money; and (b) their business plan couldn't work. Now what? Wouldn't YOU be tempted to stash away a bundle, go through some motions, and give up?
While I disagree in detail, I agree in general. People understand that wealth is never going to be very evenly distributed, and probably shouldn't be. I think revolutions are triggered by perceived violation of an implicit contract of mutual obligations. But regardless, these are still perceptions of "unfairness". I always come back around to information, though. If I took a risk based on an accurate representation of the situation, and the risk didn't pan out, I don't mind. But if the representation was wrong, then I very much mind. |
| Date: 2006/01/11 15:43:25, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Sir Toejam:
Is this legal? It sounds almost like if someone came to you and said "I have devised a nearly foolproof way to rob banks, and if you'll fund the development of the necessary device, we'll split the proceeds." I'd really need to know my exposure here. I wouldn't want to be in the line of fire if "pushing a fake business" should run afoul of any criminal laws, you know? I should think constructing elaborate fronts with the intent to deceive are, shall we say, less winked at today than they were pre-Enron when everyone was getting rich selling one another spun sugar. Incidentally, there's a really fascinating article starting on Page 47 of the January 2006 issue of Science purporting to show that my basic economic assumptions aren't really justified, but are rather a subset of a larger (and I suppose you could call it "ethical") context. It's game theory, not necessarily easy reading, but I'm learning a lot. I recommend it. |
| Date: 2006/01/11 15:56:18, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
I agree with ST about Carol - her approach seems to be "The Bible says this happened. Therefore it did. Therefore it was a real, genuine, natural phenomenon. Therefore, it could be investigated by science. Therefore there's no conflict!" But this argument crops up in creationist writing pretty steadily. When it comes to evidence, surely the Bible (being the Word of God) is *at least* as reliable as any number of independent observations by mere mortal scientists. So OK, we have evidence. So it's science. |
| Date: 2006/01/12 02:49:47, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Unless, of course, the moderator *agreed* with the argument, I take it. I don't have any objection to creationists repeating essentially the same argument, so long as they make some reasonable effort to respond to objections, and add some substance and detail to their position. What annoys me is that those posters who make the most cogent objections are simply ignored by the creationists, who seem to sift through the objections finding those with boilerplate creationist answers. So if I were moderator, I'd like to tell some of these folks: OK, respond meaningfully to post #nnn, or you're outta here. |
| Date: 2006/01/12 04:00:04, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
This has been a matter of some sensitivity, of course. Originally, the Official Explanation was that there was to be no discrimination either in favor of or against anyone. The (rather ludicrous) assumption was that there were plenty of *fully qualified* minority types out there to be hired, but they were all hiding somewhere, and could only be found by a directed effort to seek them out. Meeting the resulting requirements led to some genuinely creative definitions of "qualified". But in reality, there were only two categories of alternatives - either define down the job requirements until nearly any warm body qualified, or jigger the procedures for assessing qualifications so as to (often massively) misrepresent the candidates' abilities. In private industry, out of the desperation induced by legal pressures, companies tended to create "nonjobs" with suitable titles and compensation but without the sort of responsibility that would cripple actual operations. Universities created dual tracks, the original degree programs and the "affirmative action" programs, which were basically remedial training but which were awarded the same degree. The civil service meanwhile went to two tracks on their standardized tests, grading non-minorities according to how well they did relative to the entire test population, and minorities according to how they did relative to other minorities only. These "dual track" efforts to basically DEFINE very different groups as being the same, have largely failed. But the civil service does not have the "nonjob" option; they are obligated by law to treat all "90%" candidates the same (within the larger restriction that minorities must end up constituting NO LESS a percentage of all employees than they represent in the population at large). All in all, it's been a Through the Looking Glass experience, where "merit" has morphed from an ability to do a task, to an ability to meet political expediency. |
| Date: 2006/01/12 05:54:23, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Fine if true, but there seems to be no real agreement here. My experience is that the "best" arguments are those for which creationists have pat (and long refuted) answers; arguments requiring creative thought are apparently too poor to answer. Nor have I EVER seen any points "ducked" by "evos". At least on PT, every point any creationist has raised since I've been reading the site, has been answered so exhaustively as to represent the essential hijacking of every thread where any creationist point has been raised. So I'm concerned that to a creationist, a "good" point is one he can dismiss easily, and "ducking" a point means failure to agree with it. I can see how this would get frustrating for both sides, one side because the other won't listen, the other because the first side doesn't Believe. |
| Date: 2006/01/12 06:07:32, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
Perry is simply trying to position himself where he thinks he will attract the most votes. When an experienced (and winning) politician takes a position like this, it's a very strong indication that the people of the state (his constituency) agree with that position. Now, you might argue that anyone who leads by appealing to the most ignorant common denominator, leads his state in the same sense that the carved figurehead leads the ship. Nonetheless, as governor his decisions matter. Molly Ivins is a national treasure, always worth reading. She has a sure instinct for the absurd, the corrupt, and the dishonest. Even if she only points that instinct toward Republicans and somehow overlooks Democratic exercises of these same skills. |
| Date: 2006/01/12 09:16:01, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ericmurphy: Behind your reasonable paragraphs lies a nest of assumptions which, at least as far as I know, are neither established nor refuted. As such, they are statements of preference. I'd like to provide a slightly different viewpoint, just to see where our disagreements may truly lie.
In all accuracy, these disparities have existed in every society where wealth can be accumulated. As you go on to say:
But if differences in "capacities and needs" (not to mention kismet generally) always produce such a pattern, can we really denigrate it with words like "bedeviled"? The slings and arrows of the inevitable?
I suggest that such a philosophy is a matter of scale. It seems to be not only workable, but the ONLY workable approach, in very small communities (immediate families, very small and tightly coupled teams). It breaks down terminally where people begin to feel that the fruits of their labors aren't being directly reciprocated. YOU may be comfortable living in a society where productivity is penalized so as to provide rewards for being unproductive, but few people are, and by trial and error (or by anthropological observation) this point is reached somewhere in the 50-100 person community. Beyond this point, the temptation to consume more "justice" than one needs is beyond the ability of too high a proportion of the members to resist.
While this disparity is undeniable, the circumstances of the Asian-Americans should not be so carefully tuned out. In comparison to African-Americans, the Asians share a goodly number of characteristics: They are immediately, visibly different. Offspring of European-Asian breeding look like the non-European. Active discrimination has been waged against them. They were never slaves, but they were surely demonized in the last Great War. During which African-Americans were segregated into their own military units, while the Asians were rounded up and sent to concentration camps. So it's hard to argue that Asians have been welcomed with open arms, or that they integrate so quickly into a European-dominated economy (as did the Irish, the Italians, the Swedes, etc.) that they blend under the radar. Yet the Asians excel in schools, on standardized tests, in business and in technology. Why? What truly major difference leads to this astounding disparity in social success between Asians and blacks?
And indeed, this claim is made. I don't buy it myself, but rejecting this claim entails drawing a distinction between inherent differences and *performance* differences across a wide spectrum of performance measurements. How can we measure inherent (biologically meaningful social) differences, without looking at performance against some measure? Not a simple task.
I'm sure this is largely the case. The question remains, WHY such an immense difference between blacks and Asians?
To the best of my knowledge, Asian-Americans have never been the target of Affirmative Action, because by all reasonable measures they haven't needed it. Yes, there have been articles (a recent major article in Science, for example, that in major research facilities, Asians make up over half the workers and only about 5% of the management. But this too is changing, without any targeted government program to force it to happen. All that was needed was to point it out. It's not like enough of the lower ranks lack the qualificatons for promotion, so in this case "Affirmative Action" met the original model - fully qualified candidates were in fact plentiful. And ironically, it's this fact that rendered any Affirmative Action program unnecessary.)
And still Affirmative Action to artificially boost Asian-Americans has been practiced, well, uh, it hasn't. Hasn't been necessary. Again, why not? Perhaps it's possible that the reason why not might give us a pretty good clue why Affirmative Action was started in the first place, as well as why it has had relatively little effect. Asians fresh off the boat, not even speaking the native language, have consistently outperformed African-Americans in schools and in business (even within the ranks of organized crime). No two generations (or more) required.
Again (because you really DO need to address this), we see Asian success at truly spectacular levels *immediately*, much less after 40 years. We see Asians whose English is barely comprehensible dominating the graduate schools of our best universities. We see that they are financially doing very well indeed. Perhaps we could argue that the previous immigration waves were mostly European enough to vanish in a generation of interbreeding, and that's why none of them ever required anything like Affirmative Action. But the Asians do not vanish by interbreeding.
This argument is not honest. Even if we grant (and it would be hard not to) that blacks are WAY overrepresented in the prisons and death row, and that given essentially similar fact situations blacks are WAY more likely to be convicted, and to get far heavier sentences upon conviction, this says nothing about fairness of employment opportunities. If you run a footrace, finish first, and someone you handily defeated is given the trophy because "his ancestors were mistreated, and people of his description are overrepresented in prison", have YOU been treated unfairly? Absolutely. I'm sorry, but when the qualifications for a desirable job are made explicit, and you spend perhaps years polishing your abilities to meet them, it's simply not fair to give that job to someone substantially less qualified because *some else somewhere else, unrelated to either of you* was treated badly.
While I agree as far as you went here, I'm amused at where you stopped. It is true of people generally, of every description and ideology, that what they DO NOT agree with must clear a higher bar than what they like. As a subset of people generally, conservatives are orthogonal to this measure.
Which is simply the flip side of that same coin. We all filter the world through our ideology, giving every benefit of the doubt possible to what our personal values find "good", and demanding miracles (and not seeing them even if they happen) otherwise. Affirmative Action addresses, however ineffectively, a very real disparity whose cause isn't at all obvious (because if our "explanations" are correct, the Asians would be impossible). Maybe a better-aimed program would work better. SDI was technically not feasible. Social security seems a reasonably good idea poorly maintained - when it was started, age 65 was the average lifespan (not counting infant mortality) - i.e. the median worker died at 65, so only half the workers who paid into the system survived to extract from it. Social security might still be a reasonably good idea, if the eligibility age had been pegged to the median age of death. Because this didn't happen, the burden of supporting an ever-increasing percentage of capable but nonproductive citizens is beginning to exceed national wealth creation. But anyway, your point that "conservatives" (you imply they have an exclusive on this) are the only ones to prefer their preferences, is frankly silly. "Liberal" is also a label implying a constellation of preferences. Are these necessarily more rational? Are you kidding? Are you really that incapable of noticing that YOU have preferences, which you find more reasonable? NOTHING is more reasonable than a shared prejudice. I may share many of yours, but I know them for what they are. |
| Date: 2006/01/12 11:53:48, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
|
Ghost: I didn't want to write at length on a tangent. Yes, when caucasian and either negroid or oriental lineages interbreed, there is a blend which at the tip of the curve produces someone able to pass as straight caucasian. But this happens only in a very small minority of cases (and the non-caucasian half of the pair generally has multiple caucasians in their ancestry). I do admire (in detail) your example, however. I raised this point because, while earlier European immigration waves without exception met with social rejection, their differences weren't so visibly obvious. Their children typically mixed without the remaining (often still strong) hatreds, simply because they neither looked nor sounded "different." So the bigot-on-the-street simply *could not be sure* that these people should be hated, and guessing wrong has always been considered gauche in these cases. And so in no more than two generations, the various waves of spics, dagos, wops, kikes, micks, krauts, frogs and their ilk were indistinguishable from, you know, actual real people. But this has never really been true of either the Africans nor the Asians. An accident of biology, despite the occasional (and often spectacularly attractive) exception. And I mention all of this to counter the fairly commonly proposed notion that biologically visible differentness explains rejection of African-Americans, which explains their social and economic difficulties, which explains their bottom-of-the-barrel status despite having been freed 150 years back.
Failures in the sense of not accomplishing their stated goals. Perhaps not failures generically. After all, *someone* benefits from every transaction. By now, 100 years after its creation, the Department of Mines does absolutely nothing except spend about $3 million a year supporting those who depend on the money. Is that department a failure? Depends where you sit. |
| Date: 2006/01/12 13:28:20, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Dean:
Either you didn't read anything I wrote, or you didn't understand it, or (most likely) you didn't WISH to understand it. I won't repeat it. If you wish to laugh at something I didn't say, don't blame me while you do it. |
| Date: 2006/01/12 14:13:27, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||
ericmurphy:
No question about it, wealth disparities can be manipulated a great deal through national policies of various kinds. The real question isn't whether American disparities are unnecessarily extreme, but whether they are unnaturally extreme. Since the US has been engaged in a rather massive wealth-transfer program for some decades now, I suppose it's prima facie the case that these disparities are unnaturally small. I grant you that the Swedish (and similar) experiences demonstate by dint of truly extraordinary effort, these disparities can be reduced quite a bit more. So the question is whether these highly artificial wealth transfer programs are "good" national policy. And the answer to that question typically depends on whether you are an involuntary donor of the fruits of your effort to someone else, or the happy recipient of fruits someone else earned.
You're right. Is your argument that if most do it, it becomes righter? I doubt you could find many people so heartless as to refuse to lend a hand where a hand is required. A kind of "when you have to go there, they have to let you in" sort of thing. But perhaps what you do NOT want is to purchase institutionalized disincentive to achieve personal potential.
With all due respect, I think your point about "systematically eradicated culture" is hogswallop. I admit I don't understand what the real reason is, but I notice that the other immigrant waves had essentially abandoned their cultures within two generations, voluntarily. They all became Americans. I grew up in an ethnic neighborhood where the grandparents (off the boat) spoke no English, the parents were bilingual, and the kids my age spoke ONLY English. We all ate the same food, dressed the same, etc. The melting pot, for these waves, was very real. Now, what I'm trying to emphasize is that this basically total adoption of the new nation in language, dress, food, and values happened within the living observation of the immigrants. In other words, people are amazingly malleable, and these cultural adoptions happen FAST. Newborns brought to America from anywhere on earth and raised by Americans AS Americans, are as solidly American as anyone else. Indeed, enough such cases exist to indicate that there is nothing either historical or biological that can predict any such newborn's eventual social success. Instead, the best predictor is the social circumstances of the adoptive parents. I certainly agree with you that there are "significant differences in the degree of discrimination" between African and Asian Americans. But why?
And how many of the Irish-Americans were born in Ireland? How many of the Italian (or German, or Russian) Americans have ever been to their ancestral countries, or know anyone who lives there, or even speak the language anymore? ericmurphy, if an interbreeding population remains unassimilated after 150 years of full citizenship, the problem isn't isolation from some ancestral culture. These (as I point out) ancestral cultures are readily discarded by most groups, and don't remain central to the lives of ANY groups for more than a few generations. Even a group as insular (and targeted by bigotry) as the Jews has no need of Affirmative Action. Indeed, the Jews have been resented for being so successful.
I admit I don't find this very plausible. Why is it that all those other immigrant groups have assimilated so successfully despite no greater "fatherland influx"? For that matter, Africa is a seething mass of microcultures, many of which are rapidly vanishing beneath the steamroller of Western language, dress, movies and TV, the internet... (And it might, for all I know, be worth noting that Asians have been discouragingly successful managing their own nations, to the point where they present a genuine economic threat to US interests. By extreme contrast, Africans have systematically wrecked *every nation they have undertaken to govern* across all of Africa. And this despite massive injections of foreign aid (something the Asian nations have needed none of.) African nations are without question the most corrupt, brutal, vicious and racist governments anywhere on the planet. Several genocidal campaigns seem to be in process at any given time. Why?) So something else is going on here. I don't know what it is.
While you're entirely correct that anti-black discrimination has been notably more vigorous than anti-Asian discrimination, and that levels of discrimination matter, I still submit that you are basically kidding yourself. Why would discrimination, even of different LEVELS, cause one group to excel above and beyond the caucasian baseline, while causing the other group to fall well short? Why would a quantitative difference in the same direction result in a truly drastic qualitative difference in opposite directions? I admit I find your rationalizations reek of special pleading - for every justification for African-American performance problems, you can find several analogous groups defying your proposed pattern. Indeed, the Africans are the exceptions in every case. Discrimination - yep, against every one. ONLY the Africans need Affirmative Action. Assimilation? Yep, in every case EXCEPT the Africans. Divorce from original homeland's history? Yep, but harmless in every case EXCEPT the Africans. Why? Why? Look, I want everyone to succeed. I'm opposed to all discrimination. But I can see pretty easily that giving every single member of some identifiable subgroup a fish every single day isn't working. Even if we followed Dean's all-heart-no-brains preferences and gave each of them a DOZEN fish a day, I strongly suspect we would not drive much personal achievement. It's not that I don't wish to help, it's that I want help to WORK. Repeating (or doing more of) what manifestly doesn't work, in the hopes that pretty soon it will work because we so very much WANT it to work, is futile. |
| Date: 2006/01/12 16:54:39, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||
ericmurphy:
While I agree, experience shows these factors are nearly impossible to disentangle.
I think when the slaves were first freed, their economic circumstances were terrible. Leftover animosities certainly did not help, for generations. And institutionalized and habitual discrimination are certainly discouraging, for anyone. There is no question African-Americans have been dealt a lousy hand. But strangely, ALL the immigrant waves have been dealt truly lousy hands. Maybe not quite as bad, but most of them were dirt poor, most of them didn't speak the language, most of them came from different religious traditions. Only the blacks have clung to the same lousy hand generation after generation after generation. The Asian experience shows that physically visible differences aren't the sole explanation either.
My reading is that Jews have been treated poorly for millennia, everywhere they've gone. But you may be on to something here. The Jews, as I wrote, are insular. They maintain the best goold-old-boy network the world has ever seen, extending from their exclusive religion (converts NOT welcome) to their practice of marrying ONLY one another, to a strong preference to hiring Jews if at all possible, to their fairly continuous distinct cultural practices. They represent a separate ethnic group biologically even moreso than African-Americans. They are hated and resented. They succeed. Something about the culture... And whatever we may think of the Asians, they are without question (as a group average) hard workers, willing to sacrifice for the future and for their children. Imagine (I'll fantasize for a moment) handing welfare payments to poor Jews, blacks, and Asians. Is there any question the Jews and Asians would promptly bank or invest the money and *continue* to work hard? While the blacks by observation spend the money *in lieu* of working? Those black children who try to learn their school lessons and do their homework are dissed within their culture for "acting white", while successful blacks (professionals and executives) are despised as "uncle toms". Another cultural thing... Consider the reaction of African "leaders" to the American political experience. Repeatedly, they have expressed slack-jawed incomprehension at the American President's willingness to HOLD an election ("but he has the POWER. WHY would he risk it?"), and then not to RIG the election ("but he controls the results! WHY would he not cause himself to win?"), and even LOSE an election ("but...but...he controls the MILITARY. He has all the POWER. WHY doesn't he USE it? Why? It makes no SENSE). Again, this is a cultural thing. When I was much younger, I worked in a machine shop that was a mix of Italians, blacks, and Jews. I watched the distinctly different reactions to management. When nobody was looking, the Jews continued to meet their quotas. The Italians slacked off some, but kept working. The blacks never worked unless a manager was looking over their shoulder. When Affirmative Action came in, the blacks stopped working altogether, knowing they couldn't be fired. Which didn't stop them from shouting racism (and names) when the Jews were promoted and given raises. Dirty Jew lovers, the blacks sneered. Another cultural thing. Where I worked until a few years ago, payday for everyone used to be every other Friday. On the assembly line, which was minimum wage work, everyone was poor. But the whites and hispanics returned to the line on Monday; the blacks only when the money ran out and they HAD to return. It became necessary to pay daily, Another culture thing. But these things add up after a while. I see all of these things as ways to gobble your seed corn while shooting yourself in the foot. Indeed, black community leaders (another anomaly. There don't seem to be "community leaders" of other groups) sometimes express frustration at the sheer wideband unwillingness to *make any effort* to learn, to work, to study, to save, etc. After a while, you can only wonder. |
| Date: 2006/01/13 02:56:14, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Sir Toejam:
If we are overgeneralizing, then of course we are missing something crucial. Like you, my experience in engineering is that the Aftican-Americans are at least as dedicated (and competent) as anyone, if not moreso. But Affirmative Action is not directed at an overgeneralization, but a statistical reality. If we take as axiomatic that the connection between biology and culture is tenuous, then we are pretty much limited to seeking cultural explanations. As opposed to Jensen and others who point out that on the most predictive tests we can devise of mental capability, blacks consistently score one standand deviation below whites (and TWO standard deviations below Asians). Of course Jensen, like you, is quick to point out that we're looking at largely overlapping bell curves, and we're saying nothing about any particular individual. But to the Jensenists, the social patterns we see in America (and across all Africa without exception) are unsurprising consequences of his measurements. Their (very) carefully worded conclusions say "What would you expect? These people lack the biological horsepower. We are describing test results accepted as valid and useful for everyone who scores average or above. Why do they become invalid for blacks?" I reject Jensen's analysis basically for two reasons: first, I don't WANT him to be correct. And second, I think his measurement tools are problematic and indirect, and find Gould's The Mismeasure of Man persuasive. Dean: Yes, you make a good point about the aristocracy. As Gould wrote, class in Britain serves the psychological role race serves in America. I'm sure you would know far more than I do, but my limited reading of British sociology says that there are more class-based social stratifications than just peers and commons. In fact, that this stratification is maintained by a dual-track educational system. The psychologists speculate that an underclass is a stable fixture of large societies because it serves self-image purposes. Sounds very wooly to me, but still, certain essentially class-based distinctions seem wired into societies in Britain, America, India, and elsewhere. And they resist eradication. But I admit this is something about which I'm totally ignorant. |
| Date: 2006/01/13 09:31:10, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
norm: Fill me in on what the debate was about. Or alternatively, say something stupid. I'll be glad to reciprocate. |
| Date: 2006/01/13 10:00:09, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
When I clicked on Dean's link, I got
|
| Date: 2006/01/13 11:05:41, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
| I'd be more inclined to credit the recruitment function more than any other. At least in Western religious traditions, science comes across as largely superfluous - God has already told us all the meaningful answers. So those who find science attractive are those who do not accept, or are not satisfied by, the Received Wisdoms the Western tradition provides. |
| Date: 2006/01/13 13:24:37, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
|
Sir_Toejam and haceaton: Here's the abstract of the Science article. I may need to rethink the influence some notions of ethics may have on economic activity... Abstract: (I have reformatted a bit for easier reading)
This article is by Colin F. Camerer of the California Institute of Technology, and Ernst Fehr of the Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, University of Zurich. |
| Date: 2006/01/13 13:32:03, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
haceaton: Your post reminds me of the joke where the wife demands that her husband tell her what he believes, and he replies "I believe I'll have another beer." Your use of the phrase "have faith" could be replaced by "assign a high probability based on observation" without changing your meaning. The usage followed by religious people would make such a substitution meaningless. I think we're dealing with more than straight semantics here, personally. |
| Date: 2006/01/13 16:48:53, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||||
haceaton:
Evidence. This is not a contradiction. The "unborn again" stories I've heard, of those who have managed to escape the fetters of faith, tend to describe an "AHA!" experience where the essential nature of evidence suddenly struck home. They tended to recognize that if reality is to be the judge, the claims being shoved on them were, uh, lies. But lies can't be identified without some profound "compared to what"? Evidence.
I can only expand on my speculation here. I work with a couple of Believers, and after some (reasonably polite and thoughtful) discussion with them, I've come to realize that they have roped off the "faith territory" pretty specifically. Of course, one would expect something similar, since the rejection of reality some faiths require, if broadly applied, would render them incapable of functioning at all. And I've noticed that within that territory, evidence is simply not admitted, the rules of logic and inference are inoperative, eyes glaze over and the professions of faith (in the sense of, I believe it, that settles it) are all that's left. So what I think sometimes happens is, Reality ™ on some rare occasions breaks the barriers and invades this territory.
Here is where St. Thomas Aquinas agrees with Piaget: Give me a child until the age of 7, and I will shape his faith. After that, anyone can have him, and the faith is secure. Dawkins has speculated (admitting it's wooly speculation, to be sure) that humans have such a very long period before reaching maturity that a survival trait has evolved: in early childhood, a kind of imprinting occurs, where the child takes *at face value* what it is told. Things like "don't touch hot stove, don't eat THAT, God is good, use the potty." Dawkins thinks this *biological* propensity willy-nilly gives parents immense power over a stonkingly large range of their child's future development. In all good faith, they can produce a John Stuart Mill or a Kent Hovind before the child is old enough for kindergarten.
My position is that beyond a certain age, this *does not happen.* It can't. Could YOU suddenly embrace the mythical Christ?
Now you're losing me. I recently read that self-professed UFO abductees almost always suffer from sleep paralysis, an otherwise uncommon malady. The effect feels like being tied down, and happens during a period of intense dreaming. I have personally worked with people who *sincerely heard* voices in the walls. At first, the voices frightened them - they knew perfectly well there were no voices in the walls. But this didn't prevent the voices from being audible and understandable, any more than someone who's had a leg amputated is prevented from an exasperating itch on the missing foot. So the human brain plays nontrivial tricks with our perceptions. Which permits otherwise perfectly rational, evidence-demanding people to see ghosts, hear the Voice of God, experience aliens and out-of-body voyages, see themselves surrounded by pervasive conspiracies, and then build superstructures around these experiences they talk themselves into beyond extrication. I've seem aliens marching across the road myself, when I've been driving half-asleep and lighting conditions are just right.
I find this kind of thing disturbing. I simply cannot comprehend how *anyone* could actually believe some of the stunningly preposterous things they claim. So you say that there are these gods that don't DO anything, but are still all-powerful? Right. And one of them screwed a virgin, who gave birth to a demigod? Right. And that demigod did lots of miracles, but nobody noticed until a couple generations after he died, at which time they were "recalled" by people a thousand miles away who weren't at the scene? Right. Hello? Are we looking at physical, organic brain damage here? Either that, or the human capacity for self-delusion is so profound one marvels that we can tie our shoes and come in out of the rain. If Dawkins is right, surely we have grounds for capital punishment of their parents, for (usually) permanently crippling their children beyond hope of rehabilitation. I'm quite sure that I could alter my sexual orientation so as to become aroused by corn (at least the young and succulent variety), before I could believe in any gods, at least in the absence of any evidence for them. And as far as I'm concerned, if there WERE any gods, the evidence would be, uh, unambiguous. And correspondingly, I suppose the True Believers could more easily lust after cornstalks than abandon their delusions.
I've always been most persuaded by the "indoctrination during the first few years" approach, though I admit it doesn't always "set up" fully, and for the lucky few, the nature and meaning of evidence eventually penetrates that roped-off area. As far as I know, my own preference for best-fit explanations of the preponderance of the evidence were ALSO forged in infancy. No easier to abandon than those indoctrinated into Faith before they were old enough to defend themselves. |
| Date: 2006/01/13 17:34:35, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
My take is that if contradictory evidence is considered even remotely possible, the faith-based position has been abandoned. For the True Believer, contradictory evidence is intrinsically impossible, to the point where it need not even be considered. God does not violate His own Word. If evidence *seems* to contradict God, it can only because our comprehension is so wildly inadequate. Fortunately, we *already* have God's answers, by comparison with which we can tell when we've gone off the rails. We may not have the horsepower to understand how or why we've gone off the rails, but we can at least know we've done so and work from there. |
| Date: 2006/01/13 18:16:06, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
normdoering: I'm reminded of Bill Veeck's statement, "I'm not handicapped, I'm crippled." (Veeck was confined to a wheelchair). Veeck didn't regard his physical shortcomings as a handicap in any way. Stephen Elliot seems to be saying the inverse: "I'm not crippled, I'm handicapped." His brain works, but he doesn't know how to LET it work. It's one thing to recognize that one HAS a handicap. It seems something quite different to be determined to work around it, rather than wallow in it. |
| Date: 2006/01/14 10:18:15, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
Ghost: The basic problem, as I see it, is that "intelligence" (whatever that means outside of any context) is a matter of such extreme sensitivity. Something I admit rubs me the wrong way about the idea that intelligence is a thing that we have, that some of us have more if it than others, that it reflects one of the most, if not the most important aspects of our individuality and capability, that it (at the very least) resists any effort to get more of it, and that it's so closely associated in our minds with personal merit. As you might expect, I'm less than astonished that psychologists wouldn't cheerfully embrace a critique that dismisses both their assumptions and their tools. I'm also aware that Gould's own son had brain issues (clearly organic) resulting in abnormally wide variations in abilities. The single number being defended as the measure of the man not surprisingly ranked Gould's son solidly in the "worthless" category, a result sure to anger any father. I think even valid arguments that Gould's skepticism about factor analysis are less than fully justified, miss Gould's point. Historical attempts to measure brainpower HAVE been used traditionally to buttress the status quo, and people in fact ARE capable of acquiring amazing levels of proficiency (or failing to do so) in ways that a single, set number implies are narrowly constrained. It just ain't so. Mismeasure isn't even an attempt to be a scientific treatise. It's an attempt to show long-standing, systemic bias that has always managed to show that those doing the evaluation are "smarter" than those they *knew* were dumber before they began. I ask you to imagine a psychologist devising any measure of brainpower, applying it reasonably broadly (including to themselves), and sincerely concluding "gee, I'm a lot stupider than I thought I was. My test must be accurate!" |
| Date: 2006/01/15 05:26:59, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
I think it might be more useful to regard religion as, at least in part, a fabrication constructed to justify in moral terms whatever people wanted to do anyway. It's not like any investigative reporter can independently interview your god(s) to see if you were *really* authorized, or if you just made it up. Religion seems to perform two basic functions: It provides "explanations" for what isn't understood, so we don't have to admit ignorance. And it provides rationalizations for our own petty preferences that only a swearing contest can counter: God wants this. No he doesn't. Yes he does. Those whose self-interests are served, for some reason, are always on God's side. I've never heard of anyone whose prayers were answered by God telling them their opinion was incorrect. |
| Date: 2006/01/15 07:37:02, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Everyone I know who prays, claims that ALL their prayers are answered. They pray for X, something happens A-Z, and this is God's Answer. Not what they prayed for because God is so much smarter and more knowledgeable than they are. But, I ask, since things just keep on happening, how can you tell which thing was the answer? It's kind of like interpreting scripture. FIRST, decide what you want. THEN interpret it to suit. But, I say, I don't pray at anything, yet things keep happening to me too. They explain that God watches over all of us, even atheists. But in that case, I ask, why bother believing or praying at all? The payoff is the same either way. I guess they pray to get God's attention focused in the right direction. It very rarely works, but it does so for Good Reasons. Honest. |
| Date: 2006/01/15 12:41:49, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Ghost:
I think skepticism will always be appropriate. And I should point out that even Gould didn't take a position of "total nurture" - he readily admitted that the brain, like any other part of the body, was variable over (almost surely) some bell curve. He concedes in Mismeasure that differences in mental capability are surely (if only partially) biological. His focus was on the tendency of such a wooly measure to be self-fulfilling. The psychologists are contending that their measurement techniques are NOT wooly. They may be relying heavily on statistics and almost none on direct neurological examination (which, on humans, violates ethics). But their statistical rigor is as soundly based as they can make it. And my own preference is to insist that someone's value (or even their mental muscle) can't be usefully described by a single number. That number encompasses and cancels out very real and meaningful distinct capabilities, and the number itself is subject to some considerable change with simple practice. My concern has been that since I'm not a biologist, I don't understand how something as broad-spectrum as "intelligence" can have failed to regress toward the mean after a couple of centuries of fairly common interbreeding. Blue eyes, OK, maybe that's more of a on/off switch. But "intelligence" (whatever that means, since the meaning depends *entirely* on whatever (if anything) a specific suite of tests might be measuring)? The notion of an "intelligence gene" is absurd. (Back a couple of decades, Charley Finley signed an Olympic sprint champion to use up a spot on the A's roster as a dedicated baserunner. The idea was, as one of the fastest people alive, this guy could steal bases at will. Finley kept the experiment going long enough (several seasons, and several hundred attempts to steal bases) to show that this sprinter's stealing record was distinctly below the major league average. Seems there's a lot more involved here than just speed. I read Gould as saying a lot of what we regard as intelligence, is a measure of what is kinetic, not just potential.) |
| Date: 2006/01/16 04:12:38, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
gregonomic:
What bothers me is, IF you are right that it takes more than 2 generations to bounce back from adversity, why have all of the other immigration waves done so as easily as they have? ALL of them faced severe discrimination, most of them didn't speak the language, most of them were dirt poor, few of them had any formal education, and at least in the case of the Jews, discrimination remains virulent. So as I tried to argue with ericmurphy, it's not sufficient to simply opine that 2 generations aren't enough for blacks, blithely ignoring the fact that it HAS been enough for *every other group*, despite explicit social handicaps. And this despite the fact that blacks have been the recipients of a long and growing history of targeted social handouts the other groups never enjoyed (including welfare, affirmative action, various child care programs, and so on. While these programs have failed to have the desired effect, they DID transfer a whole lot of wealth). So even granting that this unique and vast discrepancy with respect to *every comparable group* is cultural, we still haven't identified what there is about the culture that causes identifiable and frequently-resented out-groups like Jews and Asians to excel, but causes blacks to lag behind. The best we can do is exercise special pleading on a case-by-case basis. So I still think something systemic is going on here that we haven't extracted from the overall pattern. Maybe you're right and "major advances in our knowledge" of the genotype will explain a lot. But if it does explain a lot, then by implication the explanation of this unique display of social incompetence is biological. And if it IS biological, if Jensen is correct, then attempts at social remediation are misdirected. I personally don't want to believe that. |
| Date: 2006/01/16 04:39:12, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
|
This school district is like Dover in a very informative way: they are broke, they are cutting back "on teachers, on programs, on supplies. We used to give students pencils, and we don't even do that anymore." They can't help but be aware that a) they're guaranteed to lose the court case; which b) will cost them millions. Yet the board goes ahead and votes for it anyway! Truly, religion addles the mind in fundamental ways. You stop wondering what they could possibly be thinking, and start wondering if religion LETS them think in the first place.
Maybe there's an insight here. They are raising their daughter to become a fully-qualified poor rural school district board member. |
| Date: 2006/01/16 05:44:00, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||||||
Dean,
In a sense, it was. The slaves were not voluntary immigrants, but (not too arbitrarily) we can say that ALL people not Native Americans are immigrants.
You are certainly welcome to perform this investigation. Check out Ellis Island.
Agreed. In fact, when the slaves were freed, many of them headed for the industrial north.
Only until after the American Civil War. After that, they were free to migrate around, and many if not most did exactly that.
Here, you make your first valid point. For nearly 100 years following emancipation, there were discriminatory "Jim Crow" laws on the books no other group of immigrants faced. Attemtps to integrate blacks into American society and guarantee first-class citizenship are only about 50 years old. And by the time those Jim Crow laws were repealed and efforts begun to correct the damage, a great deal of socialization had come to pass. So here, I think you have raised a valid and excellent point. Other groups may have faced serious barriers on arrival, but those barriers had not become institutionalized - these groups could find their new identities, so to speak. But the blacks, for historical reasons, HAD an identify pretty well set in place by legal practices. MUCH harder to break out of.
After many efforts, I must conclude that you are so convinced that I hold opinions I have never expressed, that there are no possible words I could write that would disabuse you of this delusion. I agree with everything you say. What I have been asking is, WHY are things this way? Until we understand what causes this, our efforts to correct it miss the target. You seem absolutely convinced, for reasons I couldn't even guess, that even *recognition* of the problem must imply approval. I am personally angry at the way things are, I think they are unnecessary, short-sighted, damaging, and in general a situation where *everyone* loses. Why else would I be trying to understand how to change it effectively? And you say I'm happy to keep things as they are?
If I were guilty of what you keep saying, your attitude would be justified. But here I find you doing the same thing you did on the economics thread: assuming that *noticing* an inequity constitutes approval of that inequity, and that any attempt to understand what CAUSES that inequity constitutes some sort of callous bigotry. Is it any wonder you seem to understand nothing, and all you say about me is not only wrong but outright stupid? After all, you've made it clear that your opinion of yourself would go down if you made the effort to figure anything out. You wouldn't want to get your mind dirty actually *looking at* the world's problems, when you could be preaching instead, and lying about the motivations of those with more immediate knowledge. So let's just say that we disagree. If I'm trying to understand why blacks are at the bottom of the social rank, this doesn't mean I approve. If I'm trying to understand how supply and demand contribute to WalMart screwing up a community, this doesn't mean I approve. If I'm trying to understand what leads companies to pollute, this doesn't mean I approve of pollution. Except in your mind. MidnightVoice:
I agree the reasons for the social stratification we see are surely historical. I live in Alabama but came from the North, so it's a bit jarring for me to see these flags and hear the frequently expressed desire to restore the status quo ante. My view is that our incentive system is somehow backwards. There is little incentive to achieve if the achievements are disregarded or seriously under-rewarded. There is little incentive to reward achievement if there are no visible economic rewards for doing so. And this system is hard to change when it has been in place long enough for everyone involved to take it as a given, as the way things are supposed to be. |
| Date: 2006/01/16 06:17:20, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Stephen Elliott:
But life choices arise from socialization. I think you are saying that misguided efforts to lend aid both constituted an incentive not to achieve (paying people not to work, regardless of motive, produces less work. I confidently expect that this economic truism will convinced Dean that I'm a bigot! I had a pretty good friend at one time who was unemployed and collecting welfare. At the time, welfare was paying him about 80% of what a minimum-wage job would pay. His question was, "Why should I spend 40 hours a week making a net 50 cents a hour?" I argued that if he worked hard and did well, he'd be given merit raises, perhaps promotions, and work his way into some real money. He pointed out that for blacks, this *does not happen*, except infrequently and under duress. And he was quite right. You can choose to take welfare or work for minimum wage. You can choose to be dedicated, work hard, and buy into the system. You can NOT choose to be rewarded appropriately by those in a position to do so, if THEY do not choose to cooperate. And here Dean is right: unless some bureaucrat (at considerable public expense) MAKES them cooperate, they don't do it. There is no reward for doing it, and there are dangers involved. |
| Date: 2006/01/16 08:11:32, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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Dean: OK, I'll start with you.
No. I'm trying to understand (1) Why blacks have not rebounded from the very real discriminatory laws they suffered under for so long; and (2) Why very sincere, very expensive good-faith efforts to effect such a rebound have had such a lousy record of success.
Again, you misunderstand. These other groups, different as they may be for any number of reasons, are nonetheless the only basis we have for comparison. I presume you are arguing that their various circumstances have simply been too dissimilar to tell us anything useful. You may be right. I may be searching for patterns where there are none.
Since I have never said such a thing, and in fact said *repeatedly* that very real discrimination continues in force, I don't know how you find any "pretense." This statement is either dishonest or stupid. You can pick either one. AND you can apologize.
Slippery slope to what? My goal here is to examine *every possible reason* for this difference. Apparently you have roped off one particular difference, despite a century of indirect evidence in strong support, as simply not to be considered. Your "let's not look at what we don't wish to notice" attitude is good hearted, I'm sure, but brainless. You just can't seem to see a difference between pretending something doesn't exist, and studying it to determine how much (if any) a contribution it may be. My own conclusion, tentative and subject to change, is that there ARE some biological differences, but they are WAY lost in the noise of socialization factors.
How is this even remotely on topic? I spend post after post after post talking about the nature-nurture debate, about IQ testing, about history, and suddenly you start talking about Bush and taxes. Please, take irrelevancies to another thread.
Your platitudes are wonderful, but the practice is unfortunately a lot harder. Yes, we want no unfairness, we want everyone to maximize their personal potential, we want no racial discrimination per se, we want everyone to have an equal chance to run the race. The problem is, what should we do when we discover that one group of people invariably finishes well behind everyone else? Sure, we can take your attitude (indeed, we HAVE taken that attitude) that this difference in performance must be due to circumstances beyond their control. They don't CHOOSE to be descendents of slaves, or to be discriminated against in law and practice. It's not (at least proximately) their doing that the society they live in provides strong disincentives to achieve anything. How much blame should we attach if the disincentives of discrimination have a social effect? And so we can attempt to change circumstances so they don't present any barriers or handicaps. But we also need to monitor our efforts closely, because we know what the road to, uh, heck is paved with. If our efforts are counterproductive, we need to recognize this and stop doing it. I'm certainly not recommending inaction. I DO reject the idea that we should make circumstances even worse on the grounds that we need to DO something, and we WANT our actions to work. Wanting, even wanting real real hard, so far hasn't worked very well. Stephen Elliott:
Personal observation. It's not just that the executives are all white and the peons are all black. The unskilled laborers are all black *except* the foreman, who is white. ALL the janitors are black except the head janitor, who is white. Surely you are familiar with "tokenism"? Blacks face the same sort of ceiling as women - only the truly outstanding individuals get the recognition granted to *adequate* white males.
Permit me to laugh. People who work very hard, follow all the procedures, cut no corners, and STILL get no rewards, eventually don't work so hard. "Well, he's doing pretty well for a black, he's certainly risen above his station, no need to promote him any further, it will cause our deserving (read: white) employees to think we are discriminating!
Chuckle. First, you complain about generalization. The very next sentence, you refer to "they", which just happens to refer to one in a thousand. Hello? I work with a black engineer, and he is excellent. Of course, I live in Alabama, the local college turns out hundreds of black engineers a year, my division employs 50 engineers, and one of them is black. He's very good. He also manages people and projects pretty well, and has expressed a desire to become a manager. After 18 years, he's still waiting.
This is a good point. In the military, color-blindness is rigidly enforced, everyone starts at the bottom (of their enlisted or officer tracks), merit is assessed as objectively as you'll find anywhere. And you're right: blacks and whites compete on equal terms; there are no visible inherent differences at all. As far as I'm concerned, the military experience shows as well as anything could that we're not talking about heriditary stupidity here. Which implies that whatever IQ tests are truly measuring, little if any of it is biological.
Understood. And I should point out that within Asian and Jewish families, expectations tend to be high and parental oversight of education tends to be close and responsible. So culture matters a great deal. The question remains: what is the most effective way to alter a toxic culture? |
| Date: 2006/01/16 08:46:46, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||
| Author: Flint | ||||
Stephen Elliott:
That's what so exasperating here. My experience is much the same. As ST and I have pointed out, those blacks doing any particular job, seem as qualified as anyone else doing that job, whether it be soldiering, engineering, university student, whatever. Yet blacks are WAY underrepresented in the better paying jobs, and OVER represented in the menial labor jobs. What is causing this?
This is doubly true. If you have low expectations of yourself, this is how you turn out. If everyone you work for, everywhere you work, has low expectations of you, this is ALSO how you turn out. Even if you are self-employed (and the US has a program to promote and give special compensations to minority-owned small businesses), you struggle if your potential customers have low expectations of you. This tends to limit black-owned businesses (there are exceptions) to serving the black community. Where there is very little money (except for drug dealers). |
| Date: 2006/01/16 11:12:12, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||
| Author: Flint | ||||
gregonomic:
If this is really the case, I'd probably give up also. But the sheer number of exceptions to this pattern indicates that more opportunities are out there. My outsider's gut feeling is genuine merit is recognized, although for blacks perhaps it takes more merit per unit of reward.
Celebration is perhaps hard to quantify. Just how much does my own standard of living improve knowing that people who resemble me have done great things? As for achievement in sports, my reading is that this HAS had a profound effect in the inner city, where taking education seriously is frowned upon by the community, but being able to sink 25-foot jump shots commands real respect. Problem is, nearly anyone who gets a decent education can make a decent living, but only one in a thousand (or less) can make it as a professional athlete. I think you're right, the questions I have need input from someone with direct life experiences I could never have. Perhaps I should quit my day job and become a sociologist? |
| Date: 2006/01/16 11:53:31, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
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What I don't understand is the continuing concern with that place. So OK, they delete anything that doesn't support their position, they ban anyone who posts that stuff, and they gaze into their navel. They are the poster child for how they would teach the controversy, illustrate critical thinking, and exercise critical analysis of varying viewpoints, if they were in charge. But in any of these respects, how are they different from any other creationist site? We surely all understand that the mentality they practice on that blog is a transparent window into how they defend creationism in their own minds. We get it. Now what? |
| Date: 2006/01/16 13:29:04, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||
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Dean, I think we're mostly on the same wavelength here. There are a lot of variables.
I respectfully suggest you have tagged me with a label which means something to you, which you then assume is true of me because of your label. But the fact is that 90% of the individuals comprising the poorest 20% of the US population ARE different after 5 years. So while "the poor" always exist, the particular individuals who make up "the poor" have a surprisingly rapid turnover. And to me, this implies that poverty is something suffered by an individual and not generically by a group. Rising out of poverty just isn't that hard, it just takes determination. Have you ever been among the poor? I certainly have. I've spent time homeless, living on the street. I got through that, so I know it can be done. (And I much fear that if Big Brother had given me just enough money to get by and get nowhere, I'd have gratefully accepted the money and gone nowhere.)
Perhaps you're right. I don't know. Maybe we are making the error of lumping together into (by implication) homogeneous groups, disparate collections of people not particularly similar in the respects we're addressing. As expressed by the observation that within-group differences way exceed between-group differences. It may be that poor blacks have a good deal more in common sociologically with poor Jews, than they do with rich blacks.
Yes, I do really think that. But I also tried to point out that other identifiable cultural groups (immigrant waves) have faced at least somewhat analogous circumstances yet escaped them with relative ease. In any case, I think you hit on the key difference that I missed: that freed slaves were explicitly, legally declared inferior and their group sociology molded by this condition, for a century following emancipation. After that long a period of time, attitudes are pretty well ossified on the part of *everyone involved*, every American of any description. Very very hard to overcome that. And 100 years of legally enforced inferiority is something no other group had to face in any way.
Sigh. I wish I knew. My training tells me that a combination of incentives and disincentives should work, but my sense of fairness tells me these should be applied equally to everyone. I think we're looking at a community or cultural problem here. Failure to reward effort seems neither more nor less corrosive than rewards divorced from achievement. I was amused to learn that in the civil service, it's a standing joke that if you're a black WAC with an hispanic surname and a wooden leg, you can have any job in the entire bureaucracy just for the asking. You count toward FIVE quotas at once. No competence required at anything. As always (and just as with creationism), I think the 'cycle of deprivation' starts at home. Asians and Jews (and others) overachieve mostly because high achievement is demanded and expected of them right from birth. In the American black community, social policies (all well-intentioned, of course) could hardly have been worse: 1) Effectively a bonus (bounty) was paid for each illegitimate child a woman could bear. 2) BUT, only to single parents, meaning marriage erased the money. The result, surprise surprise, was a LOT of young, single mothers. Who had to work, so the children were raised by the street gangs. Interestingly, quite a few rather cross-disciplinary studies have finally tracked down why violent crime fell by fully 50% in the US during the 1990s. It's because in the mid 1970s abortion was legalized! The gang-member cohort was aborted instead, a win-win for everyone. Even though our social policies were STILL purchasing unwanted single motherhood. So there's an example of a disincentive. I think as a policy, we should provide free abortions in inner cities. (And somewhat along all these lines: The immigrant waves, I have read, lived in conditions of TRIPLE the people/room density of todays black ghettos, and they got NO welfare, and those who starved (quite a few) were simply left in the street. The incentive to get out of those circumstances was extreme.) gregonomic:
Well, everyone grinds an axe. And it's true to some extent that what's happening to you is hard to see if your nose is pressed too close against it. And what it SEEMS like to you may be misleading. I wish I had the time to study everything I find interesting, though. So little time, so much to learn... |
| Date: 2006/01/16 13:45:02, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
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Last I had heard, Judge Ed Carnes, hearing the appeal of the Cobb Co. sticker case, was asking very discouraging questions. The theory of evolution really IS only a theory, right? And critical thinking IS what we want to teach, right? and shouldn't schoolchildren be exposed to more than a single side of an issue anyway? And just what's wrong with keeping an open mind? So there was/is a very real danger that the 3-judge circuit appeals court will overturn and put those stickers right back on, pending yet another appeal. Nor is there any doubt in anyone's mind that Judge Scalia would rule in favor of the stickers, nor that Thomas wouldn't rubber stamp anything Scalia wrote. Remember that Scalia dissented in the Edwards case, on much these same grounds. And I have little doubt that Roberts and Alito can't find ample legal grounds to encourage as many such stickers as they can find legal reason to bless. Getting creationist-friendly judges appointed by creationist-friendly politicians is the proximate goal of the entire creationist movement. I personally think it's outright INSANE to expect a creationist judge to rule against the creationist agenda simply because it's explicitly prohibited by the law. That's not how creationists work, now or ever. In the creationist "mind", results are all that matter. Rationalizations can be fabricated as required, so long as the Good Guys win. Home cooking all the way. |
| Date: 2006/01/16 13:54:59, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Crazy perhaps, but essentially unavoidable. Let's say I pay you $X in social security. Now let's say you get bored and decide to return to work. Should I take the money away from you? Or perhaps should I subtract from what I was paying you, the amount your job brings in? Or perhaps I shouldn't reduce the amount at all, and allow you to supplement it as much as you can? The same problems arise no matter what. If social security is paid to everyone, then a LOT of my tax dollars go to subsidize people who need the money FAR less than I do. But if we start means-testing for social security, the bureaucratic overhead becomes enormous. And the incentive structure changes a good bit too. I have the option of putting money into savings or spending it as fast as I get it. If the more I save, the more I will be penalized by "means testing" later, why should I try to save? I'll just lose the money. Social security has also had profound effects on family structure. We need no longer care for our elderly parents; the State does that. Safety nets, like it or not, encourage people to take more risks than they should. |
| Date: 2006/01/16 14:40:46, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||
ericmurphy:
Now, stop and think about this for a moment. How can you be sure (which you say you are) that welfare and affirmative action can be counterproductive, unless they manifestly HAVE been counterproductive. Which raises an uncomfortable question: Why do we need to wait more than 40 years to see the beneficial effects, of something even you can see the harmful effects from in far less time? Could it be that the harmful effects are a matter of evidence, and the "some day" beneficial effects are a matter of faith?
But why? Not many people are still alive today who even remember Brown v. Board, and none of those people are in power. You would think that given the intervening 50 years and the hugely expensive social programs, we'd see a LOT more improvement than we have. Something isn't working here...
It persuads them that (1)they don't NEED to get a job somewhere; and (2) if they DO get a job, they'll lose the dole money, and (3) they are perhaps being paid to stay out of the workforce because they are not wanted.
No, you have it backwards. IF you pay someone NOT to work, then you have two choices if they DO work anyway. First, you can continue the welfare payments, thus way overpaying them relative to standing-start competitors; or (2) you can stop paying them, which (as you say) penalizes them for working. But I can assure you, if the decision is made to pay certain people twice, once for NOT working and again FOR working, you aren't going to be very popular. Nobody pays ME not to work, over and above my wages for working. Now, maybe we can have a sort of "weaning period" where we pay the ex-welfare recipient less and less, rather than yanking away all his dole at one time? This would provide at least a temporary very real bonus for going to work. And maybe we could freeze the dole wherever it is in the process of shrinking if the person should quit. This would provide an incentive to STAY employed. But no matter how you cut it, paying someone not to work buys people not working. And once you've started down that path, you have very few good options for recovery. Perhaps the best option is to say "OK, now we are going to reduce your welfare income by $X per week until it reaches zero, *whether or not* you get a job. If you choose school instead, the payments will continue while you're in school." |
| Date: 2006/01/17 03:33:04, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
MidnightVoice:
Rather than level/not level, we might more profitably consider the gradient. After all, nearly ANY 'minority' individual faces an uphill battle. In much of the business world, blacks are doing better than women. To carry this more-or-less to the limit, study after study shows that all else being equal, taller men do better than shorter men and attractive people do better than plain people. Thinner people outperform heavier people. The playing field is never level. So perhaps in implying that blacks are lazy and women lack the ability, what we're really saying is that the slope they must climb is simply too steep for the majority of these people to negotiate. Short/fat/ugly/non-Christian (and so on) people also face a climb, but not so steep. What interests me is the feedback effect. Which groups, faced with nearly insurmountable obstacles, give up and (justifiably) claim discrimination, and which groups roll up their sleeves and redouble their efforts? In both cases, a feedback effect is clearly operating. Which means perhaps an assumption of a level playing field is not being made, but rather an observation of how different people respond to a field tilted against them. A great many different, partially-independent factors are operating here, and something bothers me about pointing to a single villain and then complacently believing we've identifed "the problem". |
| Date: 2006/01/17 04:08:13, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||
| Author: Flint | ||||
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MidnightVoice: As someone who has been watching much longer (and studied some constitutional law), I think you are partly correct. The Supreme Court exists to hear questions of law and not questions of fact. Presumably, they specialize in taking cases where the law is ambiguous, or where two (or more) laws are in direct conflict, or where laws as written and practiced conflict with the US Constitution. My opinion is that this process necessarily has a political component, since what must be examined is the *intent* of the laws, and intent is political. Legal decisions (in the sense I think you mean) are made at the lowest levels, where the fact situations are considered, the law being applied is unambiguous, and most of the concern is with discovering the facts, not with interpreting the law.
Judges have to come from somewhere. Either they are elected directly (a political process), or they are appointed by those who are elected (another political process), with the consent of yet *other* people who are elected. There's no way to avoid this. However, there is some genuine concern that the nominee be competent, whatever his political leanings. This is why the Harriet Miers nomination fell through - she simply lacked the substance that comes from widespread respect in the legal community. By and large, that respect for legal acumen is (at least somewhat) independent of political orientation.
You have exaggerated the situation beyond reason. What the law says is always directly relevant. What the law means is at this level also relevant. WHICH law should be considered most closely applicable is relevant. There will also typically be a dozen or more precedents that overlap the given case in important (but different) respects; which of these precedents is most useful? I might, in the interests of both Panda's Thumb and current events, point you to the Dover decision. This decision was made by a conservative, Lutheran judge appointed by the current Bush, with the approval of the Republican Senator from his state. Now, was the law irrelevant to his decision? |
| Date: 2006/01/17 05:32:10, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||
| Author: Flint | ||||
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MidnightVoice: Yes, I know what you're saying. So your task, should you choose to accept it, is to construct a document describing and defining a stable government, which will remain useful and relevant for centuries to come, without being too vague to mean anything. And while you're at it, you had better not antagonize very powerful State interests, which often conflict with one another. And of course, your document must be approved by a majority of the eligible voters. And a couple of centuries hence, when conditions and technologies are beyond any possibility of prediction, judges must be able to use your document to guide LEGAL, as opposed to political, decisions. Go for it.
This statement assumes there IS a will of the people. In reality, there is an enormous constellation of conflicting self-interests, which overlap with other self-interests in some ways but not others. Ordinary citizens have not uncommonly found themselves on both sides of legal cases with essentially similar fact situations, but different vested interests. "Justice" in the minds of the average litigator is indistinguishable from "me winning the case."
Of course, we realize that if the answer WERE clear and obvious, it wouldn't have got past a plea bargain at the trial court level. Ironically, at the time it was first enacted, the 2nd Amendment WAS clear and obvious. The States were worried about losing their sovereignty through Federal military adventures. Neither the federal nor state governments could afford to arm a milita; these were gathered from among ordinary citizens and trained to military needs as required. Every eligible citizen had his own arms; these were necessary for survival in most of the country. 'Military arms' wasn't a meaningful notion. So the states made sure that the federales lacked the constitutional authority to disarm their citizens. So the questions you ask only became meaningful as times changed, military technology far exceeded household requirements, antagonism between federal and state governmental levels became a dead letter (at least at the military level), defense became a national and never a state concern, and the national preference moved toward standing military forces. Gradually, the conditions had changed to the point where the initial concerns were entirely moot. I'm willing to agree that of necessity Supreme Court decisions are largely political, and that political orientation matters a great deal. But it still serves as a check on other branches of government. If they are WAY out of line, Congress sometimes passes laws to overrule them (which they can do), or even pass entire constitutional amendments to correct misguided Court decisions (the 16th Amendment is just such a case). It's a constant juggling act, and seems to work pretty well most of the time. |
| Date: 2006/01/17 08:25:33, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
| If they knew what they were doing, why would they cave like this? Were they hoping that nobody would notice? Or didn't anyone advise them of the law and the cases elsewhere? Were they bluffing to earn political capital ("we tried, people, but those mean atheists hate you almost as much as they hate God") |
| Date: 2006/01/17 10:18:11, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||
Ghost:
Are you serious here? The Jim Crow laws were very real, lasted for a century. Are you now going to argue that these had no effects on the community they were designed to keep as an underclass? Alternatively, you just stated "few reasonable people would deny that blacks still face discrimination." So you recognize that discrimination is there. Are you attempting to quantify its intensity? I think a rough quantification could be determined from quite a wide variety of sources, in real life. How would this be circular?
This is actually three separate questions, and their answers are informative. In government (and in the military), it's by administrative fiat. Quotas have been set up within the Federal bureaucracy requiring specified percentages of minority employees, of minority promotions, of minority managers, etc. The civil service mandates these *willy nilly* without regard to demonstrated competence. So that's one answer. In sports, the goal is to win. Just win. But I hope you are aware that it wasn't always this way. Baseball had the Negro Leagues for decades, because a color barrier was enforced. And blacks have been allowed into other sports only with reluctance (there's a movie about this out right now). I believe that as the paying spectators became increasingly willing to pay to watch black athletes win in preference to white athletes losing, the emphasis shifted from color to performance. And in sports, performance is much easier to measure objectively. Entertainment has been another area with very real barriers. Bill Cosby's show was a real breakthrough, and black actors and actresses are narrowly limited to the kinds of parts they play. Being black is still visible enough so that whereas a white actor plays a character, a black actor plays a black character.
You are pointing out that sincere efforts are being made to correct real problems. (Once again, remember you yourself admitted there is very real discrimination). I think the problem has been that true color-blindness is impossible to enforce. Administratively, it's a lot easier to try to break the pattern with targeted programs. But these programs do little if anything to address the sort of habitual racism historical social stratification has generated. For a snapshot of where blacks stood after legal segregation was abandoned, I suggest you read John Howard Griffin's book Black Like Me. The playing field HAS been tilted up nearly vertical for both women and blacks, and gets pushed back down only slowly and with great effort, some of it counterproductive. I mentioned that I work with about 50 engineers, only one of whom is black. The number of women is, well, zero. This is almost surely not biological. Anyway, the obstacles are not deduced from statistical performance measures, they are observed directly. You could as easily argue that we deduce gravity by circular reasoning: things fall because of gravity, and we know it's gravity because things fall. |
| Date: 2006/01/17 12:09:07, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||
Ghost:
No, the point is that it DID present an insurmountable obstacle. And it wasn't the blacks who dismantled this obstacle either.
There is no more Jim Crow, not explicitly. The argument here is that a century of legal oppression led to deep-seated cultural practices and expectations, that don't just go away. The fact remains that until the Jim Crow laws were repealed, they worked. They worked for a century. Cultural norms and outlooks grow pretty deep roots in a century or two (counting the years of slavery).
Yes, and yes. My reading of this history is that there were also very real economic costs associated with hiring people the *other* engineers refused to tolerate. I've seen the sort of refusal I'm talking about (here in Alabama, it's all too common) and it's evidently not something that happens at an intellectual level. It's a visceral rejection, as involuntary as a belief in God, ingrained from the same infancy. Yes, people could make every effort to force themselves to work with blacks, but it took a social sea-change before this was effective.
Once again, the kind of tolerance you're talking about isn't voluntary. It's a matter of upbringing. I knew a man (who recently died, at age 92) who played with Bear Bryant at the University of Alabama. And he literally could not watch the Alabama football team play on TV, because they had black players and he became sick to his stomach. He couldn't help it! Watching this, I started to realize that racism is much like religious faith. It's not something you decide to do or not do because of a cost/benefit analysis. The only cure for either one is to raise the next generation with a healthier outlook. This takes time. It ALSO takes a willingness to consider that one's racism/religious faith is not so healthy, and maybe the world would be a better place if these pathologies were less virulent. Certainly Buck (the football player) raised HIS children to know the Negroes' proper place, and make sure they knew it too. For him, yet another article of faith. And this kind of attitude, again, isn't something easily set aside.
I agree. As you said, there is still very real discrimination, and success in many areas (many more than there once were) is newly possible, or possible with MORE effort than whites require, but not superhuman. So the question is, what has in fact caused discrimination to diminish so greatly? Could it be that programs and policies explicitly intended to neutralize, defeat, or otherwise circumvent discrimination are partly responsible? Discrimination being "greatly diminished now" implies that it was "greatly worse then". And "then" seems to have lasted from the importation of the very first slave, pretty much undiminished UNTIL these government efforts began. And while perhaps some of those efforts have been misdirected, they have changed the attitudes of most people over the course of a couple of generations. And since I also have a curious mind, I'd like to ask you: what do YOU propose should be done to eliminate discrimination? |
| Date: 2006/01/17 16:18:30, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Ghost:
Is this really what you feel is being done? My reading is quite different. I read that welfare is no longer open-ended; that bonuses for illigitimate children aren't being paid (or have been reduced to the point where they aren't very enticing), that welfare payments have time-limits and job-search or educational requirements attached. Most of the list you provided, of special college admissions and scholarships, government contracts, etc. only reward those who abandon a dysfunctional culture. They are exactly the sort of enticements you should be favoring: wallow in poverty and resentment, get nowhere while subsidies shrink. Get out of that cycle, go to college, go into business, get rewarded. And as I said, it seems to be working. And I think it's not really a bad idea. The rewards accrue to those who *leave* that culture and get co-opted into the mainstream. But I think the real measure, across an entire population, is in the parenting practice. So long as the all-too-typical child is born to a single mother, dumped into a daycare institution, then attends a school whose primary function is extended daycare and whose administration is more interested in preventing shootings than teaching anything, while the parent pays no attention to the environment and provides no encouragement to learn, while the "community values" provide active DISincentives to learn anything, the task has a long way to go. At times, I get the sense that if anything had been up to you, you'd have left the Jim Crow laws in place. But rather than assume, perhaps I should ask: do you think that a policy of benign neglect should have been adopted before now? And if so, when? |
| Date: 2006/01/18 06:13:12, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||
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Ghost: OK, fair enough.
Personally, I find this a bit too broad. A.A. policies cover a fairly wide spectrum. But clearly there are bad as well as good aspects to policies that place individuals into positions whose duties they aren't competent either to perform, or to reasonably learn to perform. I followed (way back when) the experiences of a top graduate school which had established a strict quota of allowing 12 minority (black) students per year. However, they provided no dual track or remedial training. All the students were put into the same courses and given the same tests. Each year, all 12 black students flunked out after one semester. And this being a top school, they had their pick of the most qualified black applicants nationwide. Now, let's consider this as a case study. Should this graduate school have accepted NO minority students? As I'm sure you realize, these 12 students displaced 12 qualified students, and the differences in qualifications were easily noticeable to the admissions committee. Or having accepted known-unqualified college graduates, should they have provided the remedial material necessary to come up to speed? But this is expensive in time and money, for everyone. Or (as other universities did), should they have established a dual-track system producing both real and "Kent Hovind" doctorates? So we move back down the ladder to the secondary school system. In much of the country, these systems are still de facto segregated. And the minority-dominated school districts have a good deal less tax base to purchase a decent education. But the problem isn't exactly there either (many impoverished school systems produce outstanding college graduates). And maybe here is where we disagree:
I would argue instead against the parents. If the parents are not around very much, and/or if they simply don't care, then you're going to have a preponderance of bad students in ANY school system. This is why cultural barriers are so hard to break. But show me any good student, and I'll show you parents who WANT their child to be a good student.
I have also read that the peer pressure is very powerful.
In fact, this is how things stand today. Immigration limits on non-Northern European cultures are quite strict (and we all know that the only people worth associating with come from Northern European countries, right?). And those Northern European quotas go WAY underfilled decade after decade. Meanwhile, illegal immigration from Mexico and the Far East is rampant. Illegal immigration from Africa isn't something I've ever seen mentioned at all. As I've said repeatedly on this thread, most members of most immigration waves have NOT arrived able to compete. They were poor, discriminated against, and didn't speak the language. So I think you're really asking to restrict immigration of those who won't BECOME competitive or will STILL be antagonistic a couple of generations down the road. Can you predict this? On what basis? Let's say you're a Mexican or an Arab. You can't compete today. But does your nationality indicate that you personally can never compete, or that you personally think the nation you're adopting should be eradicated? Are these characteristics of nationalities, or of individuals?
I would hope it would depend on the experiences these people have in France. If they are restricted to ghettos, and systematically NOT hired into (or promoted into) decent jobs, and basically treated as worthless, I would imagine ANY of them would eventually protest. The key for me isn't nationality or geographic origin, it's *access to opportunity*. If that access is real and not a sham, then these problems can be avoided. But it has to be real access (not tokenism) and real opportunity (as level a playing field as we can engineer). And a great deal of that hinges on the expectations of those in the predominant culture. Again, there's a real feedback effect going on here. People will hire any minority individual they expect to work hard and follow the rules. My experience is that the majority types in the US expect blacks to do neither one -- yet when obligated by "government arm-twisting" to hire one anyway, they find that, by golly, he DOES work hard and follow the rules most of the time. And so I think the real goal here is to modify expectations, on the part of everyone. And maybe the front lines are the parents. That's why I suggested free abortions in inner cities. A way of emphasizing that you don't NEED to have any child you don't want. And if you WANT a child, then you're more likely to care about that child's education and his future. And while we're at it, do NOT pay a bonus for having unwanted children! And do NOT demand that the man of the house be driven away before any assistance is provided. I think there are workable, effective sets of incentives and disincentives that can be put into place, that wouldn't cost a great deal. |
| Date: 2006/01/18 07:54:13, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||
| Author: Flint | ||||
Ghost:
No snide insinuation. The unreachably large quotes set for Northern Europeans and the very small quotas set by those least culturally similar TO those of Northern European extraction are NOT accidents. They were set that way very explicitly, and for the purpose I stated: We wish to encourage immigration of those like us, and discourage immigration of those different from us.
Since I gave the best answer I could, I guess you want me to keep rewording it until it fits into the round hole you have prepared for it. I grant that there are indeed cultural differences between Jews from (perhaps) Germany or Russia, Indians (but only the higher castes, remember), N.E.Asian (I guess you mean Japanese?), and Algerians. Take groups from different places around the world, and you'll find cultural differences. I'll also agree that those cultural groups you identified have a history of being industrious and law-abiding. So AT FIRST, I would expect them to contribute a lot less to the crime rate. However, if opportunities are closed off, I wouldn't expect them to contribute much to the standard of living, this being prohibited. And given a few generations of being prohibited from rising socially, doing anything worthwhile, etc. I'd expect them to be much like the Algerians are today. In other words, I think subcultures are indeed shaped by the vessel within which they are enclosed. The argument that they are biologally incapable of following the norms of the adopted culture seems highly unlikely to me. And if a group can be repressed and the culture suffer accordingly, then presumably changing the incentive structure will also change the culture for the better. Or do you disagree with this? |
| Date: 2006/01/18 09:46:00, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
|
Ghost: I actually agree with what you say, but I don't think you've addressed ericmurphy's point, which eventually I came to understand better. I've never lived in a black community. I have lived at least fairly close to a Jewish community, enough to have close enough friends to understand their culture. And that culture has a good many mechanisms to defend itself. My observation is that the black subculture is nowhere near as coherent. There are Jewish criminals, but they don't prey on other Jews; blacks prey mostly on other blacks. So I know a great deal more is going on here than meets my eye. Let me give you a hypothetical case in exchange: Let's say you were to take a few dozen black infants and have them raised AS JEWS in the Jewish community, complete with all the bells and whistles, and treated by other Jews as being no less Jewish in any way. Do you suppose this treatment would produce a group of black Jews more similar to the black community in the attitudes you desribe, or more similar to the Jewish community? Along these lines, there have been numerous cases where subcultures within the black culture have bootstrapped themselves without being propped up artificially by outside assistance. Conversely, there are (albeit small) communities of Indians, Koreans etc. who have joined the "permanent underclass" poor. So both bootstrapping and giving up are always options. I notice as you do that different cultures are more robust, more resistant to imposed difficulties. I don't know why. Maybe the Jews would never become like the Algerians, even after centuries of slavery. Not an experiment I think we should conduct, of course. But if a culture is described as a coherent, shared set of values, we simply have a different challenge; not so much how do we help the people live better or make more money, but how do we help instill cultural values of industry, education, and accomplishment? By giving up?
I notice that the meaning of 'ghetto' is broad enough to describe ANY enclave where a minority lives, whether due to restrictions or voluntary. It's actually technically correct to refer to Beverly Hills as a rich-pig ghetto. |
| Date: 2006/01/18 09:54:37, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
A "design theorist" is anyone who has any degree even remotely technical, and has more-or-less mastered the art of using scientistical jargon to disguise creationist beliefs, and can thus be pointed to in support of the claim that creationism is scientific. Alternatively, a "design theorist" is anyone espousing creationism, that someone with creationist leanings can be persuaded is a scientist. Saying "he's a scientist" is usually sufficient validation. |
| Date: 2006/01/19 08:41:26, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
Ghost: Let me see if I'm following your argument. You seem to be saying that a truly heterogeneous population will stay essentially balkanized, and never fully integrate in those ways that are important to the coherent operation of a nation - i.e. in terms of goals and values and viewpoints. And furthermore, that balkanization is by definition a bad thing, because it introduces too high a level of conflict impossible to resolve except partially and even then at great cost. Except that some groups, while they seem to remain identifiable and distinct, nonetheless have value systems that are positive in the sense that they don't lead to too much conflict and, integrated or not, these groups are productive and valuable. Finally, we can identify which groups end up being more trouble than they are worth, cost the nation too much money, effort, and conflict without anything close to compensatory contributions. And experience has taught us that even extraordinary targeted efforts at solving these issues have little overall effect, while exceptions are isolated and limited. And THESE groups we should...well...I'm not sure. If they are NOT here, keep them out. If they ARE here, what? Exterminate them? Rope them onto reservations where our neglect makes them least threatening? Round them up and ship them back to wherever they originally came from? Have I got this right? |
| Date: 2006/01/19 09:02:43, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
| This is, once again, how they "teach the controversy" and "critically evaluate both sides" when they control the forum. It also describes perfectly how they maintain their faith in the face of evidence. Does anyone have any doubts how evolution would be presented in science classes if the creationists could dictate the curriculum? Would we see any controversy at all? |
| Date: 2006/01/19 09:48:37, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||
Ghost:
My own reading is that biology is without question a contributing factor, in the sense that biology can contribute to enforcing the distinctness of a group, ensuring that a group stays more heterogeneous. But I don't think biology has anything to do with the nature of a culture, only to do with it staying distinct. To be blunt, I think that African-Americans will *always* have a distinct culture. But it need not be so dysfunctional.
Personally, I've never seen any evidence that this works. Hard enough to modify a culture of a minority within our own population.
Is Affirmative Action a race law? It also applies to women. And tax incentives are just another form of payment. Economically speaking, there's no substantive difference between me giving you $10, and me NOT taking $10 away from you. But I think we agree that we can probably come up with some combination of carrots and sticks that can encourage cultural change in positive directions. After all, the presumption here is that such a combination screwed up a culture in the first place. Now, just for grins, let's say this approach works, and values of industry, integrity, knowledge, etc. actually DO get injected into the culture. Should immigration then be permitted? |
| Date: 2006/01/19 10:45:25, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
evopeach: You may genuinely enjoy this book. Not only does it cover a lot of ground you seem totally unfamiliar with, but it would let others know that your subsequent pronouncements along these lines were lies rather than merely ignorance. It's pretty easy to understand. Granted, it's an entire book, but outside your religous reservation, knowledge doesn't come packaged in Received Slogans. Sorry about that. |
| Date: 2006/01/19 11:27:57, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
I don't know what I can add at this point. We need a sociologist, and I don't think either of us qualifies. Of course, neither of us qualifies as a biologist, an economist, or anything else that would threaten to inform our speculations at all. |
| Date: 2006/01/19 11:59:46, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Stephen Elliott:
May I argue that the Marshall Plan really does not resemble what I think Ghost is talking about? Granted, the Marshall Plan worked very well. What it did was permit the rebuilding of a damaged physical infrastructure and permit trade to operate on credit. What it did NOT do was change any cultures. The rebuilt governments were (with some corrective features) just like the old ones, the economies were like the pre-war economies, and most of all the people both before and after the war were the same dedicated, meticulous, hard-working people. My position is that this sort of aid was entirely reasonable and in-scope for the task. Now the question is, what sort of assistance (that is, in what form and to whom) should we provide to get parents generally to place high value on education? What sort of aid reverses the cultural practice of denigrating diligence or achievement as "acting white"? How can we provide incentives that will lead to gang membership NOT being the thing to do? That will lead to the conviction that crime hurts everyone no matter who the proximate victim may be? |
| Date: 2006/01/20 06:09:04, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Raging Bee:
David Heddle has already addressed this: As he sees it, the purpose of the universe is to produce us. This is, as Heddle himself says, something you simply accept as a given. We are not an arbitrary result of contingent accidents, we are the *purposeful end product* of the universe. Yep, you and me (and especially David). And Heddle, as I read him, even admits that if you do NOT accept that the universe was crafted expressly to produce us, then in addition to being wrong, you have no particular reason to prefer any set of constants over any other. |
| Date: 2006/01/20 08:36:21, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
| Seems pretty clear how creationists would use power if they ever got any. |
| Date: 2006/01/20 09:39:40, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
Robertson himself is 75 years old, and his euphemizing circuitry seems to be degrading. As a result, he says what his followers agree with too directly, making everyone uncomfortable. More politically-aware folks who agree with him, still have the sense to phrase their bigotries and lunacies in the form of nominally inoffensive generalities containing the embedded keywords associated with, well, with what Robertson is saying today. I would say this lack of filtration is costing Roberton power, but I would NOT say that those for whom he speaks are therefore less powerful; it's just time for them to adopt a new spokesman, hip to the latest platitudes about "critical thinking" as performed by "a growing number of scientists." |
| Date: 2006/01/20 10:51:39, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
Darwin himself found "grandeur in this view of life", so it's not impossible to find it uplifting. But I suspect this is a very different sort of uplift. The real world, for some people, may not be nearly as fascinating as the world of their imaginations. All they have to do is assure themselves that what they dream up, is actually true. And then believe it. It's that last step that others find difficult. "I'm not lying to myself, honest. Right? Right!" Discovery is always exciting, even if you're discovering things others already know. Making Stuff Up, for me, just somehow lacks the impact. |
| Date: 2006/01/20 13:48:28, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Nope. That would be a *principle*, and we know he doesn't have much concept of those things. I'm quite sure he'll ban people based on arbitrary, unpredictable case-by-case preference. Kind of like interpreting scripture: If it ain't capricious, it's meaningless. |
| Date: 2006/01/20 14:26:21, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||
Dean:
You are letting personalities override your judgment. Ghost has taken a coherent, and as far as I'm concerned entirely reasonable, position. He is advocating (if I understand him correctly) as level a playing field as it is possible to maintain, cultural differences being what they are. His position is that all men are created equal (sound familiar?), and SHOULD be equal in the eyes of the law. Absolutely no Official Favoritism Or Discrimination instituted in favor of or against anyone. That once it becomes government policy to show favoritism to preferred groups, *no matter how justified this preference seems to some people*, we are heading onto dangerously thin ice. Passing laws that make some people more equal than others is an EVIL precedent, now matter how big-hearted it seems at the time.
Thanks, I'll see if I can find it. And parenthetically, please spell out your contractions for a while. "It's" expands to IT IS. Saying "and it is allies" would highlight your error immediately. But I've seem some pretty cogent analyses that the LACK of any such plan after the Great War (WWI) left Germany in really terrible straits economically, and that Hitler leveraged the Weimar experience. Historical analysis always illustrates that hindsight is never 20-20.
I've read studies (no less biased, no more) that conclude that war is ALWAYS bad for EVERYONE, even the winners (but less so). Of course, this analysis tends to beg the question of whether the Great Depression would have ended otherwise. But the general gist is that destroying stuff is bad, and redirecting productivity into making stuff to destroy stuff is also bad, even if SOME people profit in the process.
No, the UK was still viable after the war (and again, spell it out! The UK gave up capital for IT IS own survival? See the problem?)
The problem with your full expectations are, they are self-fulfilling. I can't imagine anything Ghost could possibly say that you wouldn't take exception to, because you know that he's a horrible person and you know that you aren't! I've found him on this thread to be taking politically conservative/libertarian positions that I find entirely rational. I'm much more confident that he and I could come to an agreement over optimal government policy toward "disadvantaged" cultural groups, than I could ever find with you. On the other hand, I've found his approach to evolution falls into the "roped-off area" I've mentioned elsewhere, where his religious faith simply disables his ability to SEE what doesn't fit his requirements. And I hope you can agree that in his reflexive and involuntary rejection of science, he's at least making an effort. He knows that evolution CANNOT be right, period, no remaining ability to even wonder about this. And given this handicap, I personally have to admire his perseverence. Kind of like someone missing both legs and confined to a wheelchair, *refusing* to admit legs exist, and *desperate* to find some compatible explanation for how everyone else walks around. Clearly, he has studied legs in great detail in an effort to track down just what makes them impossible (since they can't be possible, and this is NOT subject to question). Some of his rationalizations and misdirections are surprisingly creative (if a bit, uh, precious). But (to paraphrase Conan Doyle) when the obvious cannot be countenanced, the circuitous, however gnarly, must be the case. So what I'm trying to tell you is, religion does not cripple the mind in every area, and lack of religion does not bestow upon reality the requirement that it kowtow to emotional urges. |
| Date: 2006/01/20 14:33:10, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
stevestory:
Where? I haven't seen this announcement. I think you are making this up. |
| Date: 2006/01/20 15:46:54, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
Savagemutt: I think you're on the right track. Heddle is a Believer. There are certain areas that are simply not subject to evaluation. He knows this in an instinctive way. I don't think he's deliberately obscure, I think that his knowledge is doing battle with his, well, brainwashing seems a harsh term but I can't think of anything more descriptive. So it works out the way it often does against this sort of belief system. We are here because we HAVE to be, doctrine permits nothing less. We must work backwards to determine why this must be so. At some point the *underlying assumptions* are arbitrary, and Heddle realizes that. But he also knows that his underlying assumptions are REQUIRED, his faith tells him so. Therefore they must be "scientific" in the sense that science describes the Real World. So I don't read him as two-faced at all. He KNOWS God intended him. He knows that evolution is internally consistent, and consistent with the evidence. He basically understands the evidence. He knows God must have intended this. He knows that any interpretation of the evidence that does not *require* his existence must be wrong. He understands that evolution does NOT require his existence, but otherwise it's rock-solid. What to do, what to do? I really feel kind of sorry for Heddle. He's both intelligent enough and educated enough to understand the relevant aspects of reality, but his mind was turned at too early an age to recover. What got wired into his brain early, can't be 100% reconciled with what got educated into his brain later. Neither can be discarded, but the two cannot possibly be honestly reconciled. It's kind of interesting to watch this play out. |
| Date: 2006/01/20 15:59:11, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
stevestory: No, why would I kid you? What DaveScot SAID was "You (fill in the blank. Jack Krebs?) have posted on PT, PT banned me, therefore you can't post here." But this is a rationalization for banning JACK KREBS. Nothing more, nothing less. This most emphatically does NOT apply to anyone who has ever posted on PT, it applies to Jack Krebs, because DaveScot doesn't wish to deal with Jack. Do you seriously think that DaveScot would ban GhostOfPaley, or Larry Farfaroutman, or David Heddle, or ANY of the periodic creationists, just because they post to Panda's Thumb? You have to realize that DaveScot *ignores* anything that smacks of integrity. His "reasons" for doing ANYTHING are because he bleeping well feels like it at the time, and nothing else. He is ruled by emotion and mood. Tomorrow Jack Krebs may try again, and DaveScot may very well permit this. And when he's not in the mood, his excuses are completely ad hoc. Every day is a new day to a goose. These people are NOT RATIONAL. |
| Date: 2006/01/21 08:21:08, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
Maybe education is the key here. The cycle of blacks living in poor inner-city communities, going to schools that teach almost nothing, dropping out capable of very little useful knowledge or skill, needs to be broken somewhere. The problem may lie in the local funding of schools, which tends to be hard on poor communities. Where I live in Alabama is kind of an enclave, a city of engineers. Engineers value education very highly, and voted themselves (relatively) high local taxes to fund a really excellent school system. But other localities chose not to fund their schools, and the courts found the difference between best and worst funded schools too broad. So naturally, the state legislature decided to take the funding voted locally AWAY from those localities to subsidize those who didn't feel like paying (most of whom could pay, but didn't want to). This of course made things difficult for our local schools, so the county tried to raise school taxes again to make up the shortfall. And this time, the voters said "We're willing to fund excellent schools for our own children. If other communities want good schools, they can pay for it." So the local schools here are deteriorating. If we pay higher taxes, the state will take the money away anyway. So there's a problem. Busing has been tried, the idea being that if children of wealthier people are obligated to attend inner-city schools, they'll be willing to fund those schools. At least here, busing was so unpopular that there are NO school buses in my community at all. Not for anybody. What makes a tilted playing field, even now, is that those who go through the de facto segregated school systems, for the most part, simply can't compete. I think Ghost is correct, like it or not, that the way to make such systems competitive is for those effectively restricted to them to by golly FIX them. Ghost is correct: when the Jews have been sent to the second-class institutions, they haven't subsided into resentful indifference, they have transformed what they've been handed into something excellent. Every time. I don't know the answer. It seems pretty clear that whenever anyone lends a helping hand, whoever they lend it to reorganizes their life so they can't live without it. Which means that helping hands need strings attached and time limits. Saying this hand should be a safety net and not a lifestyle sounds great, but in practice anything that provides real safety, provides enough to live on. So a safety net isn't an amount of help, it's got to be temporary and narrowly focused. Yeah, we'll help *provided* you use that help to get on you feet, get a job, get an education. It is NOT your money; you don't get to decide how to spend it. |
| Date: 2006/01/21 17:46:39, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
I've noticed a real desire on the part of reasonable people for science to find God (their version). After all, people know that science does really neat stuff and learns a lot, investigates nearly everything, produces useful technology, etc. And they know that God (their version) is perfectly real, clear and present. So WHY can't science find Him? This makes for an audience very willing and eager to believe a claim that science HAS found God (their version). Combine this with the fact that for the most part, this audience has little clue what science is or how it works. There's a lot of force available in telling people what they dearly wish to hear, who aren't equipped to evaluate these claims. I suspect Casey feels as most such Believers do, that if ordinary atheistic science can do such wonderful stuff, imagine what full-buckwheat Christian science can do! After all, Christian scientists have TheBigGuy in their hearts, leading them in the right direction and telling them the answers. |
| Date: 2006/01/22 13:52:50, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Other possibilities suggest themselves. |
| Date: 2006/01/23 04:02:36, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Heddle:
I'm not sure I understand this. Are you taking the position that there ARE miracles? I can certainly understand that there's no room for debate between those who believe in miracles and those who want actual evidence. Evidence is *always* the sticking point. But maybe you're saying that what you wish to discuss is whether the bible is consistent with science except for the miracles? Seems to me this would reduce down to a rather uninteresting exercise. Take each statement from the bible. If there is scientific support, then the bible is scientific. If there is not, then it's a miracle and you don't discuss those! I agree that one doesn't Believe on the evidence, nor is Believing a rational or conscious choice. Once evidence enters the Temple of Mental Defense, it has impressively corrosive effects. |
| Date: 2006/01/23 04:06:45, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
haceaton: Are you more concerned that the name would trigger fundamentalist zeal, or simply that the name is unusual? If the latter, I can tell you that I have a given name you don't encounter very often (Flint, oddly enough), and it's never been the slightest problem. |
| Date: 2006/01/23 06:08:44, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Step 1: The bible is always inerrant. Step 2: Where the bible is wrong, see step 1. |
| Date: 2006/01/23 07:57:59, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
stevestory:
If you read carefully, you'll notice that life is grim and worthless only for YOU , and only in THEIR opinion. They themselves, doing exactly the same acts but armed with "right" irrational beliefs, are uplifted instead, in their opinion. Back to a question I asked earlier: Has anyone here every known anyone's god to answer his prayers by telling him his opinions are incorrect? |
| Date: 2006/01/23 08:01:48, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
Ghost: I can answer your question to your satisfaction: Ancient Latin and Greek are much too complex to have happened naturally. God must have bequeathed them to those who Believed, who were able to spread them because they were superior people, as are all God's chosen people. Did I get it right? |
| Date: 2006/01/23 09:06:17, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Not quite. It's between God and a particularly ignorant and perverse sectarian interpretation of carefully selected *parts* of the bible. After all, what's being directly positioned as infallible isn't scripture, only a very fallible human interpretation of it, on the part of people apparently incapable of considering themselves fallible. |
| Date: 2006/01/23 09:50:37, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
| You first name is really Arden? In my life I have met one other Flint. I've never met an Arden. |
| Date: 2006/01/23 11:17:19, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
| I lack the imagination to make up a kewl name like yours, so long ago I resigned myself to the unimaginative use of my own name. Besides, it helps me remember which posts I wrote... |
| Date: 2006/01/23 12:02:06, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
I'm not a biblical scholar either. But if a generation was still about 20 years (and isn't the 6000-year age based on that length of generation), then Methuselah and Noah and those others who lived many centures, would have been around doing bible-worthy stuff during the lifetimes of 30-40 generations. That's a LOT of generations hanging with the same (extremely famous) old geezers. If Noah was young when Methuselah died, we're looking at one of these two characters being alive every moment from Abraham right up through Jesus. Surely they must have been playing some continuous role, worth of some mention, even offhand? So Kind of surprising that in all the tales of Saul and David and Solomon (the late Bronze age or early Iron age?), Noah was not even referred to in any way. Do you suppose some later redactor went through and removed ALL references to ALL these long-lived characters once they'd outlived a usefulness that never lasted more than an ordinary 40-year lifetime would have required? Also, notice that the Egyptians made regular forays through the holy lands smacking down the local yokels and confiscating whatever they might have of value. Wouldn't the Egyptions have been curious about people who were busy living an order of magnitude longer than they were? If I were pharoah, I'd sure want to know how that worked. None of them mentioned it. Stranger and stranger... |
| Date: 2006/01/24 03:35:37, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Sounds very simple, but by observation it doesn't work that way. ALL anti-evolution people, as far as I can tell, find the fact of evolution (as opposed to the proposed mechanisms by which it works) an intolerable affront to their pride. Kind of like overweight people rejecting gravity as a scientific fraud because the alternative is to admit what they really don't want to. Among the fact-rejecting crowd, the associated motivations seem fairly spread around, not binomial as Zardoz argues. Some are trying to trick a pro-reality system into teaching superstition in science class because they Believe, and want everyone else to. Others consider this dishonest, and instead want to preach against reality on straight religious grounds. Some wish to attain political power sufficient to use civil authority to *coerce* behavior according to their faith. Others are convinced that simply abandoning rationality will be sufficient to guide behavior. Some seek to discover their god hiding somewhere in reality by searching for places where He screwed up and failed to cover His tracks. Others reject this in favor of seeing the Hand Of God guiding every...well, they all have different levels of granularity on this. A few even seem to believe that predictable, natural processes are themselves guided, while others recognize that if this is true, layering on some Guider is superfluous and clumsy. Essentially, what Zardoz is preaching here is PURE blindness, and he's offended that people like DaveScot give the impression of peeking every now and then. Peeking is a giveaway of confusion. REAL Believers don't do it. |
| Date: 2006/01/24 10:54:09, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||
|
Zardoz: I guess what I wrote passed by you. Communication isn't always easy about this stuff.
Well, I always consider this sort of reply to be hilariously dishonest, though probably more with yourself than with anyone else. Any explanation of any body of evidence doesn't sound implausible in a vacuum, it always sounds implausible compared to something that sounds MORE plausible. That's the only way it can possibly work. For example, you may find the notion of someone flying by flapping his arms implausible, but only by comparison to known information on this subject. So I guess we need to dig into WHY you find it implausible. Plausibility is a comparative term, and the "compared to what" must be specified. Otherwise, we are reduced to guessing that you find it implausible in comparison to magic, but you're pretending otherwise.
I mean, he is actually looking (sometimes, not too hard, but still looking) at actual evidence. And evolutionary theory in the context of evidence is not only plausible, it's stone cold obvious. Shame on DaveScot for letting the nose of evidence into the Big Tent.
Why do you say this? The origin of life from nonliving organic molecules is higly active, lots of experiments are being done, a great deal is being learned. And while there are highly competitive schools of thought, none of them would dream of suggesting that a living cell happened all at once. We're looking at tens to hundreds of millions of years, with thousands of steps along the way to what we might generously call a protocell today. Your statement seems to ignore both the processes involved, and the time available. Kind of looking at a modern fighter jet and assuming that it has no aircraft history.
Sheesh. And isn't it a marvel that smoke rises from a fire, rather than forming a fist and smacking you upside the head? Wowie zowie! Ooooh. By the way, have you ever looked at your hand? I mean, REALLY looked at it? Can I have another hit?
Other self-appointed art critics see exactly that. How mundane the world is, they say. How boring and uninteresting and dull. I suppose you'll claim that those who see the world the way you do are commenting on the world, those who see it differently are only commenting on themselves. Convenient, I guess. |
| Date: 2006/01/24 13:52:37, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||
|
Zardoz: You come so close, yet you keep bouncing off.
But of course, what we see wasn't *produced* by "disorganized mutations", any more than it was produced by the atoms and elements of which they're composed. What produces things is a *feedback PROCESS*. The mutations are only part of the raw materials that the process uses.
Selection is a process. Here's an offhand analogy: Imagine that you need to know how to pronounce a word. You consult a dictionary, and in a minute or two find the word and learn the pronunciation. Now I come along and say "Wait a minute. There are 500,000 words in that dictionary. NO WAY you could have found just the one you were looking for in only a minute or two." You might respond: Aha, I had a process. As it happens, the words are in a special order, and I happen to know that order. And because this process reduces the scope of the task by several orders of magnitude, it was entirely manageable. To which I respond: You might make the fatuous CLAIM that your method somehow rises above just guessing and faking that you found the word that fast, but I'm not buying it. And what can you say? Are you going to concede that my ignorance is more plausible than your knowledge, and admit you were faking? If I repeat "Nope, I just don't buy it" enough times, are you going to start doubting how dictionaries work?
Because, again, the mutations don't design anything. The process of SELECTION designs things. You ALMOST noticed selection, but just couldn't quite clear that hurdle. The idea of the words in the dictionary being in some knowable order just isn't plausible to you.
Nope, sorry, For me, the idea that you could find one word out of 500,000 in a minute requires a miracle on a scale beyond imagining. You must have been lying. This whole idea of method and process is something I simply can't accept. MAGIC, now, that's simple. And what makes it simple is that there's no method or process at all. You just SAY it's true and POOF it's true. Things are so much easier when you just get to make them up. |
| Date: 2006/01/24 14:00:12, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
djmullen: I already provided a link to an *entire book* about abiogenesis. I like to do that because it helps separate out the flavor of creationist we're talking about. If Zardoz continues to ignore the link, we'll have a certain species identified: those who defend incorrect claims simply by remaining ignorant of the refutations. |
| Date: 2006/01/25 03:03:35, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
I love this particular example of a homonym:
The *usual* form is "free rein", meaning the horse isn't being reined in, and is allowed to run free (without reins). DaveScot's use implies that he is absolute soverign (reigning), without any restriction - most especially including the restrictions good judgment would impose. Do you suppose he used this homonym deliberately? |
| Date: 2006/01/25 03:07:48, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
I think he's saying something much simpler: liberal=evil disagrees with me=evil therefore, disagrees with me=liberal Oh yes, I guess Muslims are also evil. |
| Date: 2006/01/25 15:43:25, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||
Zardoz:
I'd be really curious about the basis for this statement. After all, the DI can only find 400 total people willing to sign their statement, very very few of whom are biologists. And the statement they signed, far from rejecting evolution, actually says they are skeptical that natural selection explains all there is about evolution. But minus the (pretty obvious) political intent, nearly ANY biologist would sign such a statement. After all, it's commonly recognized that natural selection is NOT the only mechanism of evolution. Note please that the statement *admits* evolution; it only expresses skepticism that one single mechanism is the sole mechanism. Now, here you have "hundreds of scientists, MANY of them biologists" who REJECT evolution. Where'd you get them? The DI would very much love to hear from you! And if you can NOT produce them, if you are just making this claim out of whole cloth, your argument has no merit.
Only in the vernacular use of "theory" to mean "wild guess, baseless hunch, or mindless preference." It is NOT a theory in the scientific sense of being based on a solid body of evidence, making falsifiable predictions which have been well-tested (and honed as those falsifiable predictions have failed to pan out). In the scientific sense, ID has no theoretical basis whatsoever; it says nothing except "I refuse to accept that a feedback process operating over 4 billion years can produce what we see. I refuse! I refuse! So there!"
You may not wish to lean too heavily on this argument - the Flying Spaghetti Monster may take offense! It's generally considered rational to presume the absence of anything for which no evidence exists, and that those making positive claims (that something exist) use actual evidence in support, rather than simply saying "you can't prove me wrong." I eagerly await your source of hundreds of biologists who reject evolution. PLEASE let us know, OK? |
| Date: 2006/01/25 15:51:46, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
Stephen Elliott: I'd go one step further. All ID needs for absolute proof of God is to ALLEGE one hole in evolution, *provided* enough people can be persuaded to believe it. |
| Date: 2006/01/25 15:57:23, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
I strongly doubt that such a comparison would be very meaningful. Sure, it would indicate that mammals are related to one another in some ways. But I think that the statement that humans and chimpanzees are 99% identical is misleading. It only takes a couple of differences, especially in development, to make truly major differences in the morphology and entire behavioral pattern of the organism. On the other hand, maybe some of our creationists, for whom macroevolution is impossible, might be interested in how apparently macro some truly micro genetic differences might lead to. Didn't I read somewhere that humans have a 40% genetic overlap with snap beans? |
| Date: 2006/01/26 08:03:25, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
The creationists who hang around (we get drive-bys as well) tend to be a pretty good filter for the quality of our questions and responses. My informal scale is like this: 1) If your question or response is particularly cogent and well-expressed, the creationist will totally ignore your post. 2) If you phrased your question/response in any way that can be misconstrued, the creationist will do so in his response. 3) If you got off-topic in some way that the creationist can babble along with no need of knowledge, he'll produce a long meaningless response, usually changing the subject. On the rare occasions when a majority of the posters join in asking the same good question, so that the creationist can only change the subject, he soon gives up and so do I. Nobody has any more to learn. |
| Date: 2006/01/26 13:27:50, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
Mr. Christopher: I've puzzled for a couple three years now over what 'irreducible complexity' might mean. First, people said you'd expect the standard definition ("all parts required") to describe a pretty sizeable precentage of organisms, since nature always seems to find some functional application of any useful redundency. Behe said that didn't count; somehow just because an organism can't survive without all its parts doesn't make it IC (whatever that might mean). Next, people pointed out the 'scaffolding' process by which structures no longer necessary for a changed lifestyle are discarded. Parasites were common examples. Behe said that didn't count, he was talking about someting evolving by adding and not losing stuff. Next, people pointed out what Gould (and Judge Jones) called exaptation - the adaptation of some structure to another use. Behe said that didn't count, he was talking about adding structures without changing their application. Next, people pointed out that the same function is performed in different organisms by less complex structures. Behe said that didn't count, those were *different* IC systems. Next, people pointed out that the same function is performed in very similar organisms by essentially the same system, but still lacking one or more parts. Behe said that didn't count, by redefining what a 'part' is. It could be anything from an organ down to an amino acid, whatever Behe decided the system couldn't work without. Next, people pointed out that we have enough historical data to show how Behe's IC systems actually evolved. Behe said that didn't count unless you could produce hard evidence of every molecular change leading to his selected structures, for every ancestor back to the original life. Apparently, Behe's model of evolution is that there's a vast inventory of existing "parts" out there, available to be bolted on as though evolution worked like making widgets on an assembly line. In fact, the assembly-line model is the ONLY model Behe will allow. Removing parts not allowed, morphing parts not allowed, functional change not allowed, lifestyle change not allowed, even direct refutations based on what IS allowed are not allowed! So we finally reach the end of the road: for Behe, IC systems are systems that could not have evolved according to the only evolutionary path he is willing to recognize, which just happens to be a path evolution does not follow because it's not possible. All other paths are ruled out. |
| Date: 2006/01/26 14:08:18, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Caledonian:
Nope. You fail the course in ID logic. Here's the right answer: HIV *has* arisen spontaneously. Therefore it's microevolution. Therefore, it's allowed. |
| Date: 2006/01/26 15:09:15, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||
| Author: Flint | ||||
It did, therefore it could, therefore it's microevolution.
Speculation about the nature of the designer isn't permitted. See, the problem is, you are expecting creationists' biological claims to be *scientifically consistent* rather than psychologically consistent. Psychological consistancy means, *always* accept or reject according to what feels right today. What felt right yesterday is no longer operative. |
| Date: 2006/01/26 15:14:41, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
| As a lifelong victim of dictionary-think, I have terrible problems mastering even elementary misspellish. So tell me: is a programme the opposite of a programyou? |
| Date: 2006/01/31 05:57:38, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
ericmurphy: This was finally explained to me, because I couldn't understand what Ghost was trying to say either. Nobody is contending that phylogenetic trees are easy to construct or not subject to dispute. There is a great deal of controversy. What Ghost is saying is, at the cutting edge of science, you would expect this sort of debate - very few of the results have come in yet, and those that have come in aren't particularly reliable, so there's lots of scope for debate. Ghost's point is that over the last decade or so, a very large amount of additional results have become available, adding a wealth of genetic and molecular analysis evidence to the existing morphological evidence. And yet these trees are NO CLOSER to resolved than they were before. Which lineages are included in the sample change the apparent relationships among other lineages. Different analytical techniques using the same data produce very different trees. Ghost's argument is that when a wealth of additional information becomes available, and when that information is a great deal more reliable, and we STILL can't build trees any more robust than ever, maybe the problem is that our assumption of trees is wrong in the first place. We can't produce good reliable trees because there are no trees to produce - the data stubbornly refuse to fit our wrong assumption. To which two counter-arguments have been presented over at PT. First, that there has indeed been a trend toward a solid consensus as more information comes in; the tree model seems to be working just fine. And second, that EVEN IF the tree model is wrong, this lends absolutely no positive support to the 'poof' model. Ghost has at this point been reduced to claiming the consensus as to phylogenetic trees isn't very solid, and for the good reason that God didn't do it that way. Instead, God created 'kinds' that have been generally milling around their Platonic centers. And therefore attempts to find that one 'kind' evolved out of another is doomed to the kinds of problems cladists are suffering; they're looking for what didn't happen. Now, if only we'd read the freepin' BIBLE, we'd have known this all along and saved ourselves all this confusion and heartburn. |
| Date: 2006/02/02 06:11:58, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
The key difference here is, engineering doesn't necessarily rub your face in the relevant biological evidence. So it's not only easy, it's typical for a suitably interested creationist to survive even an advanced engineering degree program without slamming into any unavoidable conflicts with his faith. Biology programs tend to weed out creationists, few of whom are able to make the 'Kurt Wise breakthrough'. Kurt Wise has understood that to maintain his faith, he must internalize the conviction that evidence simply *does not matter*. It is irrelevant. Most creationist engineers, on the contrary, recognize the importance of evidence, and thus the importance of MAKING the evidence fit the conclusions. The evidence MUST support their faith, because their faith is RIGHT. When evidence refutes their faith, see rule 1. What's interesting is that, at least in my experience, these people are otherwise excellent at recognizing which evidence is relevant, how to draw conclusions from it, and how to reject conclusions the evidence denies. But when their religious faith is involved, it's like a blind spot. Suddenly you're through the looking glass, where conclusions are *not to be questioned* and evidence falls into three categories: it fits, it gets distorted to fit, or it gets denied. A spooky experience. |
| Date: 2006/02/04 10:28:25, Link 69.73.106.81 | ||||
| Author: Flint | ||||
I don't think this is how it works. There is no evidence indicating ID, and there never will be. And the cdesign proponentsists know this perfectly well.
Are you kidding? Their work is entirely political. You don't think any of the DI's $4 million/year budget was spent on *test tubes* do you? |
| Date: 2006/02/05 09:33:28, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
Although the error can be more subtle than might appear on the surface. Granted that DaveScot being a dunce doesn't directly refute any particular claim he makes. However, the knowledge that someone is a hardcore involuntary creationist DOES influence how his statements might be interpreted in a general sense. And in DaveScot's world, calling someone an idiot is 'ad hominem' ONLY when DaveScot agrees with the idiot. When DaveScot agrees with the name-caller, then of course the idiot label is an objective fact-based observation. I wonder how he'd respond to the statement that "you're dumber than manure and you're lucky you look better with your head up your ass, BUT in this particular case you happen to be right"? |
| Date: 2006/02/05 13:18:15, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
avocationist: If by "big Bang" you mean nothing more than that the universe as we know it had a beginning, then I doubt you'll find anyone seriously doubting this. On the other hand, if you mean the scientific theory as supported by the available evidence, including stuff like a 15-billion-year-old universe, inflation during planck time, cosmic background radiation, and cosmological type stuff like that, you find *lots* of religious objection. After all, the Big Bang theory has nothing resembling 7 days of supernatural creation. |
| Date: 2006/02/06 11:35:02, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||||||||||
| Author: Flint | ||||||||||
avocationist:
Agreed.
Yes, but it is not represented as one. Mutations are the food selection consumes.
So you're right, neither *by itself* is adequate to the task.
Yes, exactly so. In practice, 'supernatural' seems to have two meanings. As an explanation, it means "I don't understand how this works, but I can't bring myself to admit ignorance." As a pacifier, it means "anything you want for which there is no evidence (or for which the very real evidence is something you can successfully ignore) is *really true*, because nobody can prove me wrong."
My reading of scripture is exactly thus. Stuff happened. Nobody understood it. Nobody admitted igorance. Instead, they made up gods and magical forces. They lived in a "demon haunted world" full of spirits and miracles, omens and portents, deep mystical purposes imposed by forces beyond our ken. To manipulate their environment (and what is more human?) under these conditions, they projected gods as being like super-people, able to leap tall buildings, or at least control weather and confer immortality, all while remaining invisible. But because the gods WERE human, despite all these magical powers, we could manipulate nature by manipulating the gods. And even then, humans were highly skilled at manipulating other humans - through flattery (prayer), bribes (sacrifices), and deals (I'll worship you if you rain on my crops). Today, this doesn't work anymore. Now we believe we actually need to *understand* stuff. And some of the stuff is pretty complicated. What a headache. |
| Date: 2006/02/06 15:35:24, Link 69.73.106.81 |
| Author: Flint |
|
avocationist: Actually, as Jones understood perfectly well and pointed out directly, by the time Behe was forced on cross-examination to explain what IC was NOT, IC could no longer be proven wrong because it no longer made any coherent claims! Let's see...scaffolding doesn't count, exaptation doesn't count, a change in lifestyle doesn't count, organisms whose systems work just fine although missing 'essential' pieces don't count...well, what DOES count anymore? As Judge Jones couldn't help but notice, NOTHING counted anymore. How can anyone 'prove wrong' a claim that a certain structure couldn't possibly evolve EXCEPT by all the different ways it COULD have evolved, which Behe disallows as "not what he meant"? Jones DID answer Behe's points. Fully and directly. And by the time he was done, Behe didn't have any points at all anymore. Behe stomped on his dick bigtime. And as others are pointing out, science requires that one admit error, religion requires that one NEVER admit error. Now, which one is Behe? How many guesses do you need? IC wasn't 'refuted', it was whittled away until nothing was left. Which is what happens to something based on NO theory, NO hypotheses, NO research, NO evidence. Nothing but pure religious faith. Jones points out with some humor that having been stripped of all but his simple faith, Behe was left sitting on the stand saying "I say it's science, I believe it, that settles it!" |
| Date: 2006/02/07 03:42:39, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
Why do these need to be mutually exclusive? |
| Date: 2006/02/07 05:52:45, Link 3.26.50.198 |
| Author: Flint |
|
After multiple aborted attempts over 35 years, I finally figured out the secret to quitting for good: Suffer. I haven't had any for 5 1/2 years now. The craving never goes away. Patches don't help. If you used to enjoy stuff where you really needed a cigarette, you have to quit doing that stuff. If it was your job, you must find a new job. Otherwise, you just start back up again. It also helps me that my wife (whom I married at least partially because she was a smoker! |
| Date: 2006/02/07 08:12:07, Link 3.26.50.198 | ||
| Author: Flint | ||
This is just another case of kicking someone in the shins, and complaining that they hurt your toe! The relevance of religion to *anything* is entirely a function of the doctrine that religion espouses. If some religion were to teach the nonexistence of rabbits, then rabbi |