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  Topic: Expelled Pool, Hurry, Hurry, Step Right Up!< Next Oldest | Next Newest >  
J-Dog



Posts: 4402
Joined: Dec. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 17 2008,20:44   

With Expelled's BIG Opening just hours away, we need a pool. †No, not about how big their first day and first week gross will be. †No, I think the pool should properly reflect the history and tradition that the DI, Ben Stein, and Premise Media people have established for themselves.

That's right, Expelled Exposed Fans, we need to have a pool to guess the proper dollar amount that Premise Media will overestimate their gross receipts by.

Based on what I've seen, and based on Dr. Dr. Dembski's boast about †what good chess players their attorneys are, I'm saying that they are pretty big liers, so, my pool guess is Exactly One Millions Dollars!

The Prize of course, is The Famous †Single Malt Bottle of Scotch, available to the winner from Dr. Dr. Dembski's private stock. †

added in edit:  Of course, if I had Quidam's mad PhotoShop skillz, this would be a picture of Ben Stein as Dr. Evil...



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Come on Tough Guy, do the little dance of ID impotence you do so well. - Louis to Joe G 2/10

Gullibility is not a virtue - Quidam on Dembski's belief in the Bible Code Faith Healers & ID 7/08

UD is an Unnatural Douchemagnet. - richardthughes 7/11

  
Chayanov



Posts: 289
Joined: Dec. 2007

(Permalink) Posted: April 17 2008,21:32   

I thought maybe this would be a pool to bet on whether or not Expelled was actually going to open tomorrow.

Whatever the Expelled people report on how the movie is doing is guaranteed to be a lie.

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Help! Marxist literary critics are following me!

  
Quidam



Posts: 229
Joined: Mar. 2008

(Permalink) Posted: April 17 2008,21:59   

Your wish is my command


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The organized fossils ... and their localities also, may be understood by all, even the most illiterate. William Smith, Strata. 1816

  
Quidam



Posts: 229
Joined: Mar. 2008

(Permalink) Posted: April 17 2008,22:04   

I'm betting that their One millions dollars will go to further enrich Yoko Ono's retirement.

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The organized fossils ... and their localities also, may be understood by all, even the most illiterate. William Smith, Strata. 1816

  
Lou FCD



Posts: 5402
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 17 2008,22:05   

Quote (Quidam @ April 17 2008,22:59)
Your wish is my command

Make him bald and it might be worth a PotW.

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Lou FCD is still in school, so we should only count him as a baby biologist. -carlsonjok -deprecated
I think I might love you. Don't tell Deadman -Wolfhound

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midwifetoad



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Joined: Mar. 2008

(Permalink) Posted: April 17 2008,22:21   

What are they estimating? The only "professional" estimate I have seen is that they will not make it to the top ten.

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Any version of ID consistent with all the evidence is indistinguishable from evolution.

  
Quidam



Posts: 229
Joined: Mar. 2008

(Permalink) Posted: April 17 2008,22:53   

Quote
Make him bald

If you insist




Edited by Lou FCD on April 18 2008,00:36

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The organized fossils ... and their localities also, may be understood by all, even the most illiterate. William Smith, Strata. 1816

  
Dr.GH



Posts: 2113
Joined: May 2002

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,01:04   

Dang, that is post of the month.

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"Science is the horse that pulls the cart of philosophy."

L. Susskind, 2004 "SMOLIN VS. SUSSKIND: THE ANTHROPIC PRINCIPLE"

   
Louis



Posts: 6436
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,01:14   

Quidam: You are frankly a photoshop genius. My hat, were I wearing one, would be tipped. A lot.

J-Dog: I'm going to go for ONE HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS, because I reckon someone will tip off the IDCists that 1 mill don't buy you shit no more.

Louis

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Bye.

  
stevestory



Posts: 10127
Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,01:25   

good work, btw, quidam.

   
godsilove



Posts: 36
Joined: Mar. 2008

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,01:29   

Josh Friedman of the LA Times believes it will exceed forecasts:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-projector18apr18,1,4982009.story

   
Dr.GH



Posts: 2113
Joined: May 2002

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,01:40   

Quote (godsilove @ April 17 2008,23:29)
Josh Friedman of the LA Times believes it will exceed forecasts:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-projector18apr18,1,4982009.story

How appropriate, when I read the LA Times link, there was an advert for Chapman University  They (CU) said they had written a job description with me in mind.  The only problem was that they never asked me what kind of job I wanted.  Their position as advertised was one I didn't even apply for.  The free lunches were nice, and I still like and respect my friends that teach there.

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"Science is the horse that pulls the cart of philosophy."

L. Susskind, 2004 "SMOLIN VS. SUSSKIND: THE ANTHROPIC PRINCIPLE"

   
J-Dog



Posts: 4402
Joined: Dec. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,07:26   

Quote (Quidam @ April 17 2008,22:53)
Quote
Make him bald

If you insist



Yes, Quidam is a friggin' genius.

Now, we need to name what he has "created"!

1.)  Dr. Evil ID

2.)  Dr. Ben Dover

3.)  Dr. Bald Evil

4.)  Dr. Idiocy

Please Vote Now!

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Come on Tough Guy, do the little dance of ID impotence you do so well. - Louis to Joe G 2/10

Gullibility is not a virtue - Quidam on Dembski's belief in the Bible Code Faith Healers & ID 7/08

UD is an Unnatural Douchemagnet. - richardthughes 7/11

  
Quidam



Posts: 229
Joined: Mar. 2008

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,09:47   

Dr. Dr. Evil

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The organized fossils ... and their localities also, may be understood by all, even the most illiterate. William Smith, Strata. 1816

  
Richardthughes



Posts: 10756
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,09:51   

Quote (J-Dog @ April 18 2008,07:26)
Quote (Quidam @ April 17 2008,22:53)
Quote
Make him bald

If you insist



Yes, Quidam is a friggin' genius.

Now, we need to name what he has "created"!

1.) †Dr. Evil ID

2.) †Dr. Ben Dover

3.) †Dr. Bald Evil

4.) †Dr. Idiocy

Please Vote Now!

DR.  NEIN!-STEIN.

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"Richardthughes, you magnificent bastard, I stand in awe of you..." : Arden Chatfield
"You magnificent bastard! " : Louis
"ATBC poster child", "I have to agree with Rich.." : DaveTard
"I bow to your superior skills" : deadman_932
"...it was Richardthughes making me lie in bed.." : Kristine

  
Albatrossity2



Posts: 2780
Joined: Mar. 2007

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,09:52   

Quote (Quidam @ April 18 2008,09:47)
Dr. Dr. Evil

More like "my mama wanted me to be a doctor" evil

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Flesh of the sky, child of the sky, the mind
Has been obligated from the beginning
To create an ordered universe
As the only possible proof of its own inheritance.
† † † † † † † † † † † † - Pattiann Rogers

   
Amadan



Posts: 1332
Joined: Jan. 2007

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,10:10   

Dr Wankenstein?

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"People are always looking for natural selection to generate random mutations" - Densye  4-4-2011
JoeG BTW dumbass- some variations help ensure reproductive fitness so they cannot be random wrt it.

   
dogdidit



Posts: 315
Joined: Mar. 2008

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,10:14   

Dr AT?

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"Humans carry plants and animals all over the globe, thus introducing them to places they could never have reached on their own. That certainly increases biodiversity." - D'OL

  
Quidam



Posts: 229
Joined: Mar. 2008

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,10:17   

You know that image has been bothering me, but it's the spitting image of President Merkin Muffley from Dr Strangelove.



I like Dr. Dr. Neinstein Muffley

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The organized fossils ... and their localities also, may be understood by all, even the most illiterate. William Smith, Strata. 1816

  
Bob O'H



Posts: 2132
Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,10:57   

Thanks Quidam.  I knew the face looked familiar, but couldn't place it.

This might also explain the abilities of the film-makers to make so many blunders - they're being led by Hercules Grytpype-Thynne.

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It is fun to dip into the various threads to watch cluelessness at work in the hands of the confident exponent. - Soapy Sam (so say we all)

   
Kristine



Posts: 3061
Joined: Sep. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,12:17   

Quote (godsilove @ April 18 2008,00:29)
Josh Friedman of the LA Times believes it will exceed forecasts:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-projector18apr18,1,4982009.story

Yeah, well, about that:
Quote
Ruloff said the film could top the $23.9-million opening for Michael Moore's polemic against President Bush, "Fahrenheit 9/11," the best launch ever for a documentary.

Pffffffttttt-bwa-ha-ha!

Put me down for 23.8 million over. :)

--------------
Which came first: the shimmy, or the hip?

AtBC Poet Laureate

"I happen to think that this prerequisite criterion of empirical evidence is itself not empirical." - Clive

"Damn you. This means a trip to the library. Again." -- fnxtr

  
J-Dog



Posts: 4402
Joined: Dec. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,12:26   

Quote (Kristine @ April 18 2008,12:17)
Quote (godsilove @ April 18 2008,00:29)
Josh Friedman of the LA Times believes it will exceed forecasts:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-projector18apr18,1,4982009.story

Yeah, well, about that:
 
Quote
Ruloff said the film could top the $23.9-million opening for Michael Moore's polemic against President Bush, "Fahrenheit 9/11," the best launch ever for a documentary.

Pffffffttttt-bwa-ha-ha!

Put me down for 23.8 million over. :)

Hey Kristine - your number looks pretty good - you must have found a working Nixplanatory Filter!  

Give someone else a chance - Doesn't Dr. Dr. Dembski already owe you a bottle?

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Come on Tough Guy, do the little dance of ID impotence you do so well. - Louis to Joe G 2/10

Gullibility is not a virtue - Quidam on Dembski's belief in the Bible Code Faith Healers & ID 7/08

UD is an Unnatural Douchemagnet. - richardthughes 7/11

  
Quidam



Posts: 229
Joined: Mar. 2008

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,13:45   

Quote (Bob O'H @ April 18 2008,09:57)
This might also explain the abilities of the film-makers to make so many blunders - they're being led by Hercules Grytpype-Thynne.

You silly twisted boy

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The organized fossils ... and their localities also, may be understood by all, even the most illiterate. William Smith, Strata. 1816

  
Quidam



Posts: 229
Joined: Mar. 2008

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,19:59   


OK Final iteration with pout. †He looks a bit less like Peter Sellers now

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The organized fossils ... and their localities also, may be understood by all, even the most illiterate. William Smith, Strata. 1816

  
Zarquon



Posts: 71
Joined: Feb. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,20:59   

Now he looks like Baldrick.  :p

  
silverspoon



Posts: 123
Joined: May 2007

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,21:57   

I guesstamate itíll take in about $1.5 mill this weekend from what I saw tonight. Itíll be out of theaters by the end of this coming week. That puts it well under the $6 to $12 mill Iíve seen they were shooting for this weekend.

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Grand Poobah of the nuclear mafia

  
godsilove



Posts: 36
Joined: Mar. 2008

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,22:07   

Quote (silverspoon @ April 18 2008,21:57)
I guesstamate itíll take in about $1.5 mill this weekend from what I saw tonight. Itíll be out of theaters by the end of this coming week. That puts it well under the $6 to $12 mill Iíve seen they were shooting for this weekend.

Some parts of the country will do better than others.  Salvador and DaveScot of UD said their theatres had at least 60 people.

   
Richardthughes



Posts: 10756
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,22:09   

Quote (godsilove @ April 18 2008,22:07)
Quote (silverspoon @ April 18 2008,21:57)
I guesstamate itíll take in about $1.5 mill this weekend from what I saw tonight. Itíll be out of theaters by the end of this coming week. That puts it well under the $6 to $12 mill Iíve seen they were shooting for this weekend.

Some parts of the country will do better than others. †Salvador and DaveScot of UD said their theatres had at least 60 people.

One of the movie rags had takings estimates south of $1.5M. I linked to it but I can't be arsed to go digging..

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"Richardthughes, you magnificent bastard, I stand in awe of you..." : Arden Chatfield
"You magnificent bastard! " : Louis
"ATBC poster child", "I have to agree with Rich.." : DaveTard
"I bow to your superior skills" : deadman_932
"...it was Richardthughes making me lie in bed.." : Kristine

  
PennyBright



Posts: 78
Joined: May 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,22:18   

Quote (godsilove @ April 18 2008,22:07)
Salvador and DaveScot of UD said their theatres had at least 60 people.

I'd be willing to bet that neither Sal nor Dave actually bothered to count the people in their theatres.    

And you be surprised how crowded a 150 seat theatre can look with only 20 or 30 people in it ---  I used to work  for a publicity company,  and part of my job was to visit first showings and count filled seats.    It's a slightly tricky business as people have this damnable habit of moving,  especially during the trailers.  A big part of that "looking crowded" effect is deliberate - aisle designs  and seat layouts planned to funnel people into your line of sight,  so that seats don't look "empty"  even when it's not crowded.

Of course,  giving them the 'honest over estimate' out  is probably overly civil of me,  given the track record of outright lying from such characters.

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Conversation should be pleasant without scurrility, witty without affectation, free without indecency, learned without conceitedness, novel without falsehood. - Shakespeare (reputedly)

  
Quidam



Posts: 229
Joined: Mar. 2008

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,22:28   

1000 Theaters
30 people per showing
6 † Showings before they pull it (2 nights)
$8 †per head
=
$1,440,000



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The organized fossils ... and their localities also, may be understood by all, even the most illiterate. William Smith, Strata. 1816

  
Richardthughes



Posts: 10756
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 18 2008,22:55   

Watchoo think it cost to make?

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"Richardthughes, you magnificent bastard, I stand in awe of you..." : Arden Chatfield
"You magnificent bastard! " : Louis
"ATBC poster child", "I have to agree with Rich.." : DaveTard
"I bow to your superior skills" : deadman_932
"...it was Richardthughes making me lie in bed.." : Kristine

  
Lou FCD



Posts: 5402
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 19 2008,00:38   

Quote (Richardthughes @ April 18 2008,23:55)
Watchoo think it cost to make?

License for XVIVO animation = $0
License for Imagine = $0
So somewhere in the neighborhood of whatever they paid Stein + ten bucks to pay someone to add blue color to Inner Life.
I figure the rest of the fundagelicals involved worked for "Heavenly Rewards".

...except Dembski.  He probably charged his standard speaking fee.  What's that?  Ten grand or something?

Add in miscellaneous costs for make-up etc. and I'm guessing the total costs at $11,510 plus six bags of cheesy poofs to pay Davey in Marketing.

Spare change for Howie AhmGodsSon.

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Lou FCD is still in school, so we should only count him as a baby biologist. -carlsonjok -deprecated
I think I might love you. Don't tell Deadman -Wolfhound

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Wesley R. Elsberry



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(Permalink) Posted: April 19 2008,08:09   

Put me in at $20.9 million shortfall on the weekend take.

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"You can't teach an old dogma new tricks." - Dorothy Parker

    
Arden Chatfield



Posts: 6657
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 19 2008,12:51   

The whole quote deserves to be posted here, from someone whose job it is to analyze whether movies will make money:

Quote

Nathan Frankowski's Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed is a documentary being released on more than 1,000 screens by Christian-friendly Rocky Mountain Pictures. Those who have seen it categorize it as anti-Darwinism propaganda, featuring right wing commentator Ben Stein. Iím sure that there's an audience out there somewhere for this type of doc, but there has been very little "intelligent design" involved in marketing the movie. With a Total Aware of only 19 percent and a First Choice score of just 2 percent, Expelled will manage only $1 million-$3 million this weekend, and it will have a difficult time holding on to those screens. It's doomed to $5 million domestic in its theatrical engagements (survival of the fittest?), although a fair number of DVD copies may be sold in evangelical bookstores in the future.


Sort of modest for a film that's being counted on to overthrow materialism.

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"Rich is just mad because he thought all titties had fur on them until last week when a shorn transvestite ruined his childhood dreams by jumping out of a spider man cake and man boobing him in the face lips." - Erasmus

  
Lou FCD



Posts: 5402
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 19 2008,13:48   

Quote (Arden Chatfield @ April 19 2008,13:51)
Cross-posted from here, original credit to Afarensis.

Perhaps you should tip your hat to this guy.

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Lou FCD is still in school, so we should only count him as a baby biologist. -carlsonjok -deprecated
I think I might love you. Don't tell Deadman -Wolfhound

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Wesley R. Elsberry



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(Permalink) Posted: April 19 2008,14:26   

Here's the page reporting gate data. The antievolutionists are voting up the "grade" there. I think folks should go put in a grade.

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"You can't teach an old dogma new tricks." - Dorothy Parker

    
Kristine



Posts: 3061
Joined: Sep. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 19 2008,16:10   

Done.

Goodness me, even lab rats learn to stop pressing buttons when they get shocked, but those guys... :)

--------------
Which came first: the shimmy, or the hip?

AtBC Poet Laureate

"I happen to think that this prerequisite criterion of empirical evidence is itself not empirical." - Clive

"Damn you. This means a trip to the library. Again." -- fnxtr

  
Duvenoy



Posts: 6
Joined: Mar. 2003

(Permalink) Posted: April 20 2008,09:30   

Well, they got sent home in disgrace from Kansas; they got completly trashed at Dover, and I can't at the moment see that this stinker is going to be a lot different, nor add much if any swag to their coffers. Even as we speak, Dembski's at UcD whining about some "Darwinists" at II sneaking in to see it by buying a ticket for the flick next door.

I wonder if they'll go for the best five out of seven. Hope so. Imbecilic Demogoguery-bashing is fun and often enlightening.

doov

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It is proof of a base and low mind for one to wish to think with the masses or majority, merely because the majority is the majority. Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people.
-- Giordano Bruno

  
Reciprocating Bill



Posts: 4265
Joined: Oct. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 20 2008,14:49   

Box Office Mojo is estimating a $3,153,000 take for the opening weekend: $1,205,000 Friday, $990,000 Saturday, and $958,000 Sunday.

The Numbers projects a nearly identical $3,152,896 for the weekend.

Even Box Office Prophets is now quoting $3.2 million. All less than the $3.7 million opening DaveScot has been trumpeting, and way less than the $12-15 million producer Mathis is reported as saying would be required for a successful opening weekend.

[Edit] Changed DaveTard to DaveScot in recognition of his opposition to the Darwin-Hitler connection, and standing up to WAD and others on that issue throughout the thread.

--------------
Myth: Something that never was true, and always will be.

"The truth will set you free. But not until it is finished with you."
- David Foster Wallace

"Here’s a clue. Snarky banalities are not a substitute for saying something intelligent. Write that down."
- Barry Arrington

  
skeptic



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Joined: May 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 20 2008,18:58   

well considering a $100,000 operating budget that's a 3000% return on investment (somebody check my math).  Who said Ben was an idiot, lol.

  
Lou FCD



Posts: 5402
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 20 2008,19:31   

Quote (skeptic @ April 20 2008,19:58)
well considering a $100,000 operating budget that's a 3000% return on investment (somebody check my math).  Who said Ben was an idiot, lol.

Setting aside the operating budget for a minute...

Wikipedia cites $3.5 million total budget, and I've seen that figure elsewhere, though I don't recall where and can't find it again.

Take that figure for what it's worth, and let's go with that for a minute.

Isn't it a rule of thumb that a film should hit two or three times its budget on opening weekend in order to be considered successful, to account for theater costs, etc.?

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Lou FCD is still in school, so we should only count him as a baby biologist. -carlsonjok -deprecated
I think I might love you. Don't tell Deadman -Wolfhound

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Lou FCD



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(Permalink) Posted: April 20 2008,19:32   

Quote (skeptic @ April 20 2008,19:58)
well considering a $100,000 operating budget that's a 3000% return on investment (somebody check my math).  Who said Ben was an idiot, lol.

P.S.

I said Ben was an idiot.  no lol.

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Lou FCD is still in school, so we should only count him as a baby biologist. -carlsonjok -deprecated
I think I might love you. Don't tell Deadman -Wolfhound

Work-friendly photography
NSFW photography

   
skeptic



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(Permalink) Posted: April 20 2008,20:06   

Aside from the fact that documentaries do not count on the success scale, if anyone paid $3.5 million for that movie then I expect criminal charges to be filed soon.

  
ERV



Posts: 329
Joined: Sep. 2007

(Permalink) Posted: April 20 2008,21:19   

Quote (skeptic @ April 20 2008,20:06)
Aside from the fact that documentaries do not count on the success scale, if anyone paid $3.5 million for that movie then I expect criminal charges to be filed soon.

Seriously, right?

How did they spend that much money?  They paid PZ $2000, I think.  Plane tickets for the crews to visit/tape interviews.  Few hours editing in (free) Lord Privy clips.

I bet it was one big money laundering scheme.

  
skeptic



Posts: 1163
Joined: May 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 20 2008,21:52   

lol, maybe, again, Ben is not so stupid and his salary was $3.49 million.

  
Erasmus, FCD



Posts: 6349
Joined: June 2007

(Permalink) Posted: April 20 2008,22:10   

1000 rolls at 1500 a pop counts for 1.5 mil

ben 3.49

numbers aint adding up

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You're obviously illiterate as hell.†Peach, bro.-FtK

Finding something hard to believe based on the evidence, is science.-JoeG

the odds of getting some loathsome taint are low-- Gordon E Mullings Manjack Heights Montserrat

I work on molecular systems with pathway charts and such.-Giggles

  
Reciprocating Bill



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Joined: Oct. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 21 2008,21:49   

The Numbers and Box Office Mojo have cut back their talley of Expelled!'s gross weekend draw to a three day total of $2,970,848.

--------------
Myth: Something that never was true, and always will be.

"The truth will set you free. But not until it is finished with you."
- David Foster Wallace

"Here’s a clue. Snarky banalities are not a substitute for saying something intelligent. Write that down."
- Barry Arrington

  
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